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Poll puts Jonathan 7.01 per cent ahead of leading opponent

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Jonathan-v-BuhariRESULTS released yesterday by the Nigeria Polls and Survey group has put the People’s Democratic Party’s Presidential candidate Dr. Goodluck Jonathan ahead of his closest rival Major General Mohammed Buhari of the All Progressive Congress with a slight margin of 7.01% in a nation-wide poll conducted by the reputable group of social scientists.

According to a release by the coordinator of the group, Dr. Ayo Alao result from the poll are based on a five item questionnaire administered on a total of ten thousand, two hundred and ninety four (10,294) registered voters, selected from the thirty six states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory. Of these, 6,592 were males and 3,702 were females.

It added that the questionnaire sought to elicit information on respondent’s knowledge of political parties, possession of PVC s, awareness of the election date, willingness to vote during the election and the respondents’ preferred president candidate in the 2015 Presidential election.

The Nigeria Polls and Survey group in the release said a total of five thousand, five hundred and eight (5508) respondents indicated their intention to vote for the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan compared with a total of four thousand, seven hundred and eighty six (4786) respondents who favored the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC), General Mohammed Buhari.

The data analysis shows that the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate Dr. Goodluck Jonathan may likely have a better showing in the next Saturday’s Presidential election in South-South, South-East and the Federal Capital Territory while General Mohammed Buhari of the All Progressive Congress may poll more votes in North-West and North-East. South-West and North-Central remain largely the battle ground that may swing victory either way.

A new dimension to the social class dynamics is the fact that enthusiasts for the restructuring of the Nigerian State in this category may find exciting, the steps just taken by President Jonathan to ensure the implementation of the recommendation of the National Conference. This would be a plus for the president’s candidacy

The analysis also indicated that primary primordial factors like ethnic affiliations, religion and social class may be the influencing factors in the election.



75 Comments
  • Mr P

    Fake poll . This is not true

  • abiamone

    If only statistics were facts! The fact is that no sane Nigerian would see the events in the Middle East and vote for a Nigerian with any sort of connection with Islam. Boko Haram has already taught us what Islam can do and enough is enough.

    • wolab

      Change all the way

    • Etnac Ent

      GOOD TALK BRO, GEJ ALL THE WAY!

  • Osanebi Osakuni

    This poll will the more reliable if the statistics shows more details of gender opinions. Usually more women and youths vote so the candidate with more vote projection from women stands a better chance. Furthermore, the implementation of the National Conference report as a campaign factor will no doubt swing the South West and North Central. This makes Mr President the likeliest to win provided Jega is not funny with ‘.his card reader’

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      GEJ has more women and youths on his side
      Vote Wisely
      Vote GEJ the Gentle Giant

      • Osanebi Osakuni

        We de pray o!

        • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

          Let the courts waste their time adjourning a simple case
          God of Justice is watching Nigeria
          An Unjust GMB cannot smell Aso Villa Corridor

          • BOSSO

            Now you remember God after you niger delta have stolen the treasury dry and still want to continue the total liquidation of our collective wealth..God ko. Even you dey call God’s name.

      • BOSSO

        Liar. You cant prove this unreliable guess.

    • james_grim_teacher

      Nobody is voting because of National conference. This is a fake consolation prize for only ‘professional politicians’ in the south west who need an excuse to support Jonathan after taking his money. The support for the ‘national conference’ in the SW is exactly 0.00025% of the population. The issues are SECURITY and CORRUPTION. No country with elected representatives needs a national conference. The legislature can panel beat the country with our mandate any way we want. The Supreme Court is a constitutional court. The Jonathan administration is a disgraceful contraption linking local, fuel importers, government contractors and a few technocrats from international institutions as ministers all led by the most ‘leadership challenged’ human being that Obasanjo could find to be Yaradua’s VP. No country that knows where it is going keeps a man like Jonathan in office. The PDP needs to be voted out QUICKLY. The national debt is already $70B-), they are taking another $2B-) in loans and are stealing $5B-) a year. We need to help them it of office.

      • Osanebi Osakuni

        If you feel the National Conference isn’t a basis then you are disconnected from reality. The Middle Belt people being hunted by Fulani herdsmen need it and support it, the Yoruba elders that know there won’t be progress without fiscal federalism need and support it, offcourse there won’t be oil and gas without the implementation of that report. Your state can’t pay salary with fall in oil prices, imagine when the oil is no longer accessible. The reasonable ones know these realities. We are 24hrs away from seeing the result of many endorsements. Frustrations looming large!

  • Ajayi Anthony Idowu

    this poll would have been more credible if the report includes the sampling techniques used to select the participants. what is the degree of freedom and margin of error. In any case the poll tells us that the election will be tightly contested as no candidate is overtly superior to the other

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      Why did you not conduct your Opinion Poll?

      • Good Buddy

        Come on! He simply made an observation. You too can make yours

        • BOSSO

          Edu is an animal, why do you even dignify his rudeness with answers

    • BOSSO

      Whoever takes Nigeria’s polls serious is wasting.his time. Samsung libg is very biased, no statistical confirmation of significance, and pollsters are simply paid agents to begin with.

  • Bunduma Mohammed

    This polls is full of rubish and an indication that the organiser are either part of TAN or those oversea non-resident agents-traders. There is nothing to suggest GEJ would win the election. GEJ knows he would not win that is why he is desperate to change the goal post; remove Jega, Bring interim government, stop card read etc. March4Buhari

    • nikoroorire

      Have you forgotten that this Newspaper was the last employer of Abatan? This particular poll is not realistic, it is only self-serving.

  • Oluwasanmi

    keep the poll to yourself. Awon opuro

  • zuberu

    March 28,2015 election a sure WIN for GEJ… LEAD ON MR. PRESIDENT…..#GEJ4NAIJA

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      GMB without Certificate but gragra cannot match GEJ the Gentle Giant

      • BOSSO

        Lets see if you will still be singing this your certificate rubbish after Buhari is declared winner later today. Jobless fool.

  • zuberu

    Vote, that is your obligation. You do not owe anyone a duty to die. Value your life, if you are still alive you can be better than them.Say no to violence, say no to blood letting.

    Make a choice with your PVC & let Nigeria be the winner

    • NwaMbaise

      God bless you- Amen. THis is what we are supposed to be preaching now that electioneering campaign is drawing to a close, and the ballot casting is around the corner. I believe that there will be no violence this time. NIgerians are becoming wiser by the day.

      • BOSSO

        Who told you this pro jonathan bigot is for peaceful elections?

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      JOB OFFER
      You can work an hour a day online on social media and get paid!
      whats app ” +447700399494 ” to continue.

  • GOLDAN

    Whoever conducted this opinion poll is being economical with truth. But even from the analysis put forward, Buhari will still win the simple majority. The worst case scenario is a re-run. .However, Im sure Buhari will win first ballot.

    • Etnac Ent

      Anytime they pools goes Gej’s way. You people begin to talk rubbish

      • GOLDAN

        If it is rubbish or not wait till saturday.

    • KolapoAhmed

      I beg to disagree with you,the analysis is okay but the conductor of this opinion polls did not tell us how many of the questionnares goes to the 6 geo-political zones and based on his analysis of North west and east voting for GMB and South East and South-South vote I forsee GMB winnig the election if you put into consideration that North votes are more than the South votes but the fear for GMB is that he may not get blocked votes from the north whereas 11 staes in the SS and Se are blocked votes for GEj,but my wish wish may not reflect at the end is GMB winnig the presidency

    • ukodike

      Nigerians yearn for change and that will come with Buhari. I think he will win convincingly despite the heavy bribery.
      Buhari is the bridge to the prosperous Nigeria. Within the margin of error I think the poll shows Nigerians will vote for Buhari.

  • agbobu

    DREAMER BALONEY, VOODOO AND WAYO POLL. BUHARI WILL WIN THIS ELECTION WITH A LAND SLIDE

  • agbobu

    AND BALONEY, VOODOO, OJORO, WAYO, MAGOMAGO, WURUWURU, FIRE BRIGADE OR KPANO KPANO OPINION POLL. THE IBOS CALL YOU ‘ONYE OSHI’ THE YORUBAS CALL YOU ‘OLE’ AND THE HAUSAS CALL YOU ‘BARAWO’ PEOPLE LIKE YOU MAKE ME WEEP FOR NIGERIA
    BUHARI WILL WIN VERY CONVINCINGLY IN 26 STATES QED. THE STATES BUHARI WILL WIN ARE,SOKOTO, KANO, ADAMAWA, TARABA,BAUCHI, YOBE,ZAMFARA,BORNU,KATSINA, FTC, GOMBE, KADUNA, KEBBI,KOGI, KWARA, LAGOS, NASSARAWA, NIGER, EDO,,OGUN, JIGAWA
    , PLATEAU, RIVERS, OYO, OSUN, ONDO, STATES LIKE IMO, AKWA IBOM, CROSS RIVER AND EKITI MAY ALSO GO FOR BUHARI BUHARI. NOW TELL ME HOW YOU ARRIVED AT YOUR POLL AND HOW MUCH YOU WERE PAID FOR THE TRASH?

    • Destiny

      till the day buhari die he will never win in ekiti state, rivers state, Akwa ibom state. taraba state, cross river state, edo state, ondo state Adamawa and lagos state I dont know how you arrived on your indecipherable calculation.

      • seyiola

        What do you know about Ondo, Lagos and Ekiti?. It will take extraordinary electoral robbery for Jonathan to win in any of Yoruba states. Both Fayose and Mimiko must be deceiving you. My advice for you is this: Don’t take anything you from Nigeria’s newspapers to the bank because overwhelming majority of these journalists are cash and carry.

        • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

          The three states you mentioned have enlightened voters
          They are all rooting for Gentle Giant GEJ

          • seyiola

            They have no incentives to vote for a failed regime. A regime that is sectional and divisive. Even they voted against their own when they didn’t perform, how much more a regime that marginalized them.

          • Emmanuel

            Enlightened voters who know d truth and are smart not d cocktail and bull stories GEJ and his loud mouthed insignificant wife tell us.. We are not Indigbo that cheat to win jamb coz that’s all they do

      • Emmanuel

        You blind moron..I don’t know who told you Ondo is not for Buhari, coz am in Ondo and from Ondo and I am a corper and believe me Buhari owns Ondo State atm, same goes for Adam awa and Lagos state

    • Tunde

      You have mental problem.

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      Why are the APc Caplets so Rankled?
      GMB is losing again

      • pal

        You want to vote for the Chairman of Fulani herdsmen.

    • pal

      Who want to vote for the chairman of fulani herdsmen. Every year he has 150 cows.

  • Yomi Ade

    Another voodoo poll. No gimmick poll will change the demand of NIgerian voters for ending Jonathan’s corrupt administration.

  • OBASOLA OSIDELE

    All signals at home and abroad showed that Buhari is most likely to carry the day. Admonition to Buhari. My concern is the ability to do and
    keep the covenant made with the whole Nigerians, for I believe in the ability
    of General Buhari as God had previously helped him along with Idiagbon to do
    the unthinkable good job by eradicating corruption and indiscipline. Now that
    there is no more Idiagbon, I am hoping that Osinbajo will propel the action
    that will surpass Idiagbon’s achievements. It is possible to eradicate
    corruption by recovering the stolen funds in cash and assets of those culprits
    and utilize it in fixing power, to tackle insurgency, revive agriculture ,for
    good education-by making sure that children of everybody in power keep their
    children in Nigeria schools, infrastructure, revamp health system by ensuring
    that nobody including you go abroad for treatment. To also ensure that we
    refine our petroleum in Nigeria and stop importation thereby reducing fuel pump
    per liter to N50 for petrol N40 for diesel and N30 for kerosene. To deal with
    corruption in such a way that, there will be no more kickbacks and
    over-invoicing in all the contracts to be awarded, to also ensure that fake or
    substandard products are eliminated from our markets and to send strong signals
    to countries that are known for cheap and substandard products to desist from
    allowing such products to be exported to Nigeria. To curb extortions from
    Police, FRSC, Army and any other law enforcement agencies (To establish special
    Patrolling Task Force) to arrest any offender. To foster independent/special
    court for EFCC & ICPC in order to accelerate trials of corrupt officials
    and to instill fear that will scare people away from any forms of corrupt
    practices. There is urgent need to change currency because a lot of Government
    officials must have stuffed the embezzled monies underground, in the tank, in
    the ceiling e.t.c. All Government landed properties and Treasures taken over or
    cheaply awarded to cronies should be recovered in all the three ties of
    Governments. This will just mark the beginning of a new era of freedom to
    press, religion and association in a tranquility environment that is free from
    war.

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      Let GMB must first show his credentials before talking of winning elections
      100 Senior advocates cannot and must win him Trophy through the back door

    • pal

      He will start with Tinubu & Co. But I wonder how that will be, because Buhari is a beneficiary of proceeds from Corruption. Billions have been spent on his campaign, Nigerians are not fools.

  • Tayo Akin

    Orchestrated poll. Pity Guardian newspapers that used to be objective has lost its taste, it has now become a platform for unsubstantiated poll, gone are the days when I used to buy only guardian not any other paper in Nigeria. Has the vision died?

    • pal

      Punch and the Nation have taste.

  • Tayo Akin

    Abati ke?

  • Tayo Akin

    To me Guardian has turned from respectable paper with national outlook, it has changed its toga to that of a sectional newspaper. Where is the report of court ruling adjourning disqualification case orchestrated by PDP against Buhari? All other news platforms carry that report, rather than publish the report, Guardian is busy publishing spurious POLL lacking in integrity.

  • Festus Oyedele

    Nonesence polling

  • Your Newspaper has become the official mouth organ of PDP ,I’m sure Nigerians won’t need you after this election

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      Just as nations, saharareporters, vanguard, punch are mouth organs for APC?

  • Maxx, Canada

    Don’t believe on these polls. They are all bull shit. The Israeli polls suggested that Bibi will loose but, he won big. Last two years American polls showed that Obama will loose and he won big as well. These pollsters have no clue on the situation. They are as good as Jonathan on the job.

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      Obama would have lost but for Hurricane Sandy

  • God’s Judgement

    Fellow patriotic Nigerians, this is another sponsored propaganda. The said survey is fake and unreliable. Vote with conscience, integrity and have one thing in mind the future of our children and grandchildren. If we get it wrong this time around, Nigeria might not recover, simply because no money in our country reserves and oil price falling every day. Let us ask ourselves: ‘Did the lives of our fathers, mothers, brothers and sisters are better than six years ago?’. If your answer is no, please cast your vote with conviction in your heart, and trust god that that your very vote will bring new hope, peace and prosperity to: our country and to all Nigerians.

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      You are not too comfortable with the result?
      Go jump into the inviting Lagos lagoon

  • seyiola

    Scientific polls in Nigeria ?. God have mercy. In the days when everybody is getting their shares of the national cake from Mr President. Guardian reporter even had the audacity to call the conductors ‘reputable’. In Nigeria?. OPC promised to give 6 million votes to GEJ in the Southwest after collecting contracts and even Mimiko is promising one million votes for GEJ. Saturday is around the corner and reality will dawn on GEJ and it will be in the Southwest.

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      Did you witness the massive turn out of OPC Demonstration in Lagos.
      Fshola had to call Thiefnubu back from Holiday to help out
      Jimi Agbaje is set to take over Lagos

      • seyiola

        You are definitely a dreamer. Remember they are using card reader. No rigging and the party of thugs, looters and riggers is doomed.

  • Jammeh

    Those making hate speeches and using derrogatory remarks on Nigerians are all in PDP. PDP undignify Nigerians…

    Thank God the day of reckoning is here. Nigerians will fight for their dignity and honour…

    (1) “Our people do not give birth to uncountable children. Our men don’t give birth to children they dump in the streets. We are not like people from that part of the country (North)”.

    – Patience Jonathan..

    “If anyone tells you CHANGE, stone them”

    – Patience Jonathan..

    “If you follow APC you will die”
    – Dame Patience Faka Jonathan (Gbagbo) in Ekiti
    ICC is calling………

    (2) “The Igbos are collectively unlettered (illiterates), uncouth (unrefined), uncultured (savages),unrestrained (wild), and crude (primitive) in all their ways!”

    “The yoruba particularly have been too kind and gentle with Ndi Igbo. That is the problem.” @realFFK

    “If Ndi Igbo’s had history they would be less aggressive, more restrained and far more civil to others..” @realffk

    “Money and the acquisition of wealth is their (Igbo’s) sole objective and purpose in life.”@realFFK

    “I was not a tribalist when I had a long-standing and intimate relationship with Miss Adaobi Uchegbu, another igbo lady” @realFFK

    “I was not a tribalist when I had a long-standing and intimate relationship with Miss Chioma Anasoh, another igbo lady” @realFFK

    “I was not a tribalist when I had a long-standing and intimate relationship with Miss Bianca Onoh, an igbo lady” @realFFK

    “I make or offer and no apology for my views. My numerous assertions on the igbo stand.” @realFFK

    – Femi Fani-Kayode. Director, Media and Publicity, President Jonathan’s Campaign.

    (3) Arthur Eze in the presence of Jonathan, said the following:

    “That short man called Ngige, we gave him power and he went and joined Awolowo’s people; the people that killed the Igbos.”

    – Arthur Eze, PDP chieftain..

    (4) “Yoruba, totally ungrateful people”

    – Ahmadu Ali, Former PDP National Chairman and Director General, Jonathan Presidential Campaign Organisation..

    • chimex

      So what is ur point?

    • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

      You allude rather erroneously to Ndigbo as unlettered out of your arrogance
      That is no hate speech ogbeni

    • pal

      No matter how u try, you cannot stop the Igbos. Check out how many educated and Igbo professionals making waves in Nigeria and on the International scene. Find out from the recent JAMB statistics. IMO came first, Anambra came second and Delta came third. I don’t know where the yorubas are. Stop deceiving yourself, you cannot match them.

  • EduMainMan1/Stuttsgat

    The Transparent Tranformation Agenda must see GEJ through this trying period of mistrust by agents of destabilisation

    • BOSSO

      Jonathan cant even trust himself. See how many things he had confessed to after initially denying them. GEJ must GO.

  • Kate

    Let Nigerians vote and decide who they want to lead them.

  • Life is Good

    Which poll? Where was it conducted? Whats the website? I googled all that questionsand came out with only news items…
    A poll conducted by an unknown and unverified (possibly non-existing) polling entity and a whole Guardian News is reporting it… Utter rubbish…

    • BOSSO

      Its all PDP propaganda my friend. GEJ is grappling all straws now that he had failed woefully over the period of six years. GEJ MUST GO. enough is enough.

  • Nnonyelu Chiedozie

    Fellow Nigerians ask Buhari about his records when he was the minister of petrolum and head of PTF also Tinubu came back from exile an average Nigerian, after 12 years stinct in politics he became one of the richest men in Nigeria. Both of them are very corrupt so let them not decive you. Vote Jonathan to enable him to complet his programs. Buhari/Tinubu are ofcourse not the mesiahs we have been waiting for.

  • Nnonyelu Chiedozie

    Buhari was corrupt as minister of petrolum and head of PTF. Tinubu came back from exile an average Nigerian and after few years stinct in politics he became on of the richest Nigerians. So who is fooling who about change and corruption. Vote this educationist, reformer, strategist and humble leader (JONATHAN PDP) to go for another tenure and complete his programmes. 4 years is too short to fix our country with so much decay.

  • hyperbole123

    GUARDIAN, JUST LIKE THISDAY… RUN YOUR OWN POLLS AND MAKE IT OPEN, LET’S SEE HOW IT GOES. STOP QUOTING POLLS FROM UNVERIFIABLE SOURCES AND COMPROMISED PEOPLE. YOU AND THISDAY ARE STANDING IN THE WAY OF A PEOPLE’E PROGRESS. YOU WILL NOT FIND IT FUNNY BEING CRUSHED BY THE TRAIN

  • hyperbole123

    I JUST WENT AND CHECKED WHO IS DR AYO ALAO ON GOOGLE. HE DIDNT EXIST UNTIL 3 DAYS AGO WHEN HE RELEASED THIS ‘POLLS’. HE HAS NO RECORD, NO PEDIGREE, AND YOU PEOPLE ARE GIVING HIM PROMINENCE HERE, ALL FOR MONEY? GUARDIAN OFFICIALLY NOW BELONGS TO A CULT THAT IS BENT OF KEEPING THIS COUNTRY DOWN. THE DAY OF RECKONING IS COMING.