Economy as Buhari’s achilles heel

There is a sense in which it could be concluded that President Muhammadu Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) swallowed hook, line, and sinker the dictum of seeking first the political kingdom, with the belief that all other things would be added unto them. The originator of that approach to appropriating the powers of the state, is none other than the erudite Ghanaian nationalist, Kwame Nkurumah. For all his brilliance, Nkurumah was later to discover that ascending to the political kingdom does not automatically translate to all other things being added. Undoubtedly, the man at the pinnacle of the political kingdom has to be able to fashion out policies to make the economic sphere less stressful for mere mortals.

As such, political power, which is not used to bring about the economic empowerment of the mass of people would most likely result in the reversal of whatever historic gains that are made. In the case of the Ghanaian sage, this fact sank in deeply, when the very people he led to break off the yoke of colonialism danced on the streets, when he was shunted out of power by the military in 1966. As the Pan-Africanist was to later discover, it was not only the political kingdom that mattered. The ability to use the powers derived from that kingdom to make the lot of the people better, especially in economic terms, is also critical.

In Nigeria’s historic 2015 election, which saw President Buhari and his party win to take power, the mountain high expectations of citizens, was precipitated by endless promises made by the politicians. It was apparent at the time too that the goal was to take control of the political kingdom. In that scramble for power therefore, little or no thought was devoted to how to enact sound economic policies to rescue Nigerians from the doldrums of abject poverty in the face of crashing crude oil prices. So, when the APC propaganda machine spewed torrents of promises about its plans to create jobs, provide free meals for school pupils, and implement policies on Conditional Cash Transfers, they made these resource-intensive efforts sound like some stroll in the park.

There were never specific plans or rigorous discussions backed by research to understand what was to be done, and the extent of the financial outlays needed to achieve those goals. There was no critical evaluation in the one-promise-per-second blitz, as the campaign machine of the current ruling party pushed through across the country. As is already known, the conversation in the build up to the election was too tempestuous for any such deliberate, calm and hard look at the economic situation of Nigeria. The attitude was to hurl fantastic promises all over the campaign trail. And when anyone asked for specifics on how those promises were going to be fulfilled, the retort was: let’s get there first. Now the President, who by the way, spent 12 years applying for the job, sits aloft his coveted political kingdom. Unfortunately, contrary to the breezy and cheeky assumptions of the APC politburo, nothing is adding up in terms of the economy. While it is true that the politicians across all arms of government, have continued to live lavishly off the public till, Nigerians are groaning under the excruciating pains of an economy reeling from the severe lashes of a recession.

Consequently, even if it is assumed that Nigerians in their infinite capacity to forgive infractions by their leaders, have overlooked the unrealistic promises of the campaign period, is the government reciprocating by moving urgently to fix the economy? The most eloquent answer to that poser would be gleaned in the fact the Buhari administration, has absolutely no road map in place to address the nation’s economic woes. In the face of serious reversals whether in the forex market, the job losses in the real sector, and the attendant impoverishment of Nigerians, there has so far been no real attempt to articulate a direction for the Nigerian economy. Ironically, the Presidency of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, part of the 16-year rule of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which is constantly vilified by the APC, had its economic blueprint, the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). The NEEDS document set ambitious targets in terms of poverty reduction, wealth creation and provision of jobs for unemployed Nigerians. Similarly, the document made macro-economic projections around which clear targets were aimed.

Although the presence of that document did not mean that the deep-seated issues around poverty and unemployment were solved, because of the mere wave of a fanciful document, it at least provided a template for critical voices to assess government policy and benchmark governance in terms of what it projected it would achieve. Similarly, apart from all the blames he deservedly gets for sitting by as the Nigerian commonwealth was being plundered by those around him, former President Goodluck Jonathan equally had his administration’s policy document for the economy. It is known as the Transformation Agenda. Like the NEEDS document, it had its key performance indicators, which were readily available for governance experts to assess progress. For the former Presidents, the presence of these documents meant they cannot define their legacy on the economy on their own terms. There is a benchmark on which to tick off their performance on the economy.

In the case of the Buhari administration, the lethargy with respect to putting in place a sound economic blueprint is apparent. It is only now that the international financial institutions are mounting pressure that the government is thinking of launching an economic blueprint. What would come out of such a knee-jerk approach is not likely to have the inclusive and participatory dimension, which should govern such important documents in a democracy.

Already, there is consequence for the absence of a meticulous and strategic approach to the economy. As things stand, everyone can see that most of the government’s action in response the current economic crisis has come across as ad-hoc and tentative. For instance, earlier in August, there was talk about the President requesting emergency powers from the National Assembly to deal with the problems in the economy. The request which was packaged as a bill sought to hand the President sweeping powers to set aside certain laws, and use executive orders to push through an economic recovery plan. Among others, the administration wanted wide powers to abridge the procurement process to support stimulus spending on critical sectors of the economy, make orders to favour local contractors/suppliers in contract awards and abridge the process of sale or lease of government assets to generate revenue, among others.

Strangely, the issue of borrowing $29b for financing infrastructure projects from 2017 to 2019, which was recently turned down by the National Assembly did not feature in the request for emergency powers. The question to ask therefore is whether the borrowing plan materialised from the blues, without the careful consideration required for such serious step.

Before the request to borrow, came the talk of asset sale. There is therefore no methodical approach featuring the execution of a clear-cut plan to rescue the economy from the woods. For results, which will meet the expectations of the Nigerian people to be achieved, the absence of clear-cut plans has to be addressed urgently. The implication is that the President and his party need to go back to the drawing board, come up with a roadmap for the economy and sell it to Nigerians. That is what they should have done on the campaign trail, instead of the vague promises that have now put them in a difficult position.

Importantly, as the debate on the economy continues to rage, there are attempts to reconfigure the discourse, with the aim of reminding that this is about the Nigerian people. It is for this reason civic agencies are even talking of a creative stimulus plan that would alleviate the sufferings of Nigerians.

In this respect, there are active citizens who have long canvassed radical steps that are novel, and are anchored on the welfare of the people at the base of the economic ladder. The belief is that creative and innovative approaches should be deployed in tackling youth unemployment, using the Local Governments as hubs. One of such ideas was recently echoed by a civic group, the Resource Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education (CHRICED). The group has repeatedly called for an interventionist fund of N1billion each to be pumped into the economy of each of the 774 Local Government Areas for establishing an industry to absorb thousands of youths in the rural areas. The group insists that this kind of intervention which will take the 774 Local Governments as growth pools, and venues for productive activities would have set in motion a chain reaction for the recovery of the nation’s recessed economy. This is in addition to the fact that thousands of direct and indirect jobs will be created.

Across civil society, there is a palpable disappointment that the Buhari administration is not showing itself to be adept at using such quick win interventions to begin reversing the dire straits in terms of the economy. There is the contention that the social protection initiative of the government does not reflect the extent of the crisis of unemployment and poverty. There have also been allusions to the campaigns, and the fact that Nigerian youths played a prominent role in the emergence of the Buhari Presidency. The voices raising these questions are implying that the major constituency responsible for the President’s election win, is becoming alienated because the lack of progress on the economy. In the face of these many missed opportunities, the frustrations are piling.

The righteous anger about how previous administration messed things up, no longer resonates as much as it used to. The fact of how messed up things are before President Buhari came on board, is already well understood. The question is about where to go from here. The clear majority of Nigerians want to see solutions; they want to see recovery in the economy, and they want to see a government working for them with an urgency they are yet to see in the last 17 months.

As the administration moves towards its second year in office; the economy has ingrained itself in the President’s scorecard as his Achilles heel. He needs to build synergy, attract talents, and quickly embrace ideas that would solve the problems in the shortest possible time. On the flipside is the risk in allowing citizens to continue to groan under the burden of the recession. If the current difficulties persist, the idea of marketing the President as the man to enthrone the desired change, come 2019 will be untenable. Any other gains from the President’s exertions, like the push back of the insurgency and the fight against corruption would be seriously affected should he fail to fix the economy. For the Buhari government therefore, the task is now about reviving the economic kingdom. Should he be able to pull it off in good time, then every other thing will be added unto him, and his co-travellers in the change party.