PMB’s scorecard after one year

With a Quran in his right hand and the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in his left, Muhammadu Buhari was sworn in as the fifth President of the fourth Nigerian Republic, May 29, 2015. This Sunday, May 29, 2016, the President will have spent one year in office. AJIBOLA AMZAT (Features Editor) examines the successes and shortcomings of the Buhari administration within the last 12 months.

In his 1,945-word inaugural speech, President Muhammadu Buhari outlined his vision and mission for a country that has been “in deep trouble” before May 29, 2015.

It was no myth; Nigeria indeed was in a critical fiscal crisis at the expiration of the previous administration.  Careful observers then believed the ‘giant of Africa’ was going the Greece way, despite the false reassurance of the government in power.

Nigeria was not broke, the former Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo–Iweala said at the Ministerial Platform in Abuja, October 2014.  That statement later proved to be inaccurate. Nigeria indeed was broke.

In March 2015, Standard & Poor’s, an international rating agency, reported that Nigeria’s economy was in “clear and present danger”. The verdict was a euphemism for a country heading toward economic recession.

As at June 2015, the country crude oil production has declined to 1.846 million barrel per day (bdp) from 1.880 million recorded in April, according to the NNPC official report.

The revenue decline resulting from the low production was worsened by the government inability to sell about 15 million barrels it sent to the international market in May.

Within the same period, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), reported that the nation’s foreign exchange reserve has come down to $29.61 billion from $35 billion in 2011 despite the fact that the crude oil sold above $100 per barrel for the most part of 2011 and 2014 as reported by World Bank.

Yet, the country’s population is on the rise. Worldometers, the website that provides live world statistics on population, estimated Nigerian population be 182 million last year, ranking the 7th most populous country in the world.

By the second quarter of 2015, the security of life and properties in the country, especially in the Northeast, was not guaranteed because of the insurgency of the Boko Haram terrorists.

According to Amnesty International, not fewer than 17,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed since 2009, when the group first launched the campaign to impose caliphate in the Northeast.

The report by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has put the figure of Internally Displaced Persons in Borno State alone to be around 1.5 million.

That was the state of the nation in 2015 before President Buhari assumed office. But PMB had promised Nigerians during his “change” campaign that he would “fix” the problem. He reiterated the commitment during his inaugural speech at the Eagle square, Abuja.

Now one year has passed. Is the President living up to his promise? Clearly, there is no single answer to this question.
According to the scorecard released by the presidency during the week, the administration of President Buhari has made significant progress, especially in the area of the economy, the fight against corruption, security and job creation.

Economy

Take the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) for instance; the government of Buhari has ordered the closure of all multiple accounts in ministries, departments and agencies of government, thereby plugging loopholes for leakages with new technology.  Between June
2015 and April 2016, TSA collection netted N3trillion; according to the presidency.

That figure represents about 50 percent of the 2016 appropriated budget.

The Special Adviser to the President, Mr. Femi Adesina, said TSA has provided greater visibility of government revenues and cash flows among other benefits.

Similarly, the IMF, in a 2010 paper titled “Treasury Single Account: Concept, Design, and Implementation Issues”, noted that TSA enables the government to have full control over budget allocations, and strengthens the authority of the budget appropriation. “When separate bank accounts are maintained, the result is often a fragmented system,” the paper stated.

The position of a knowledge-driven global institution such as IMF on TSA might have bolstered the confidence of Buhari administration to go on with the policy full steam. Nevertheless, there are pundits who think the idea of centralising government account in the CBN as a measure against corruption will bring greater harm in the long term.

The group thinks the government’s decision is already hurting business so much that banks are contemplating sending half of their workforce to the streets.

First Bank, for instance, is proposing to fire 1000 staff and focusing less on providing loans to the oil industry in a bid to reverse the 2015 financial year’s 82 per cent slump in profit, according to the media report.  Other banks may as well be considering downsizing soon.

Recall that banking industry is a sector adjudged to be the most vibrant few years ago. Many Nigerian banks were certified healthy according to Fitch rating until recently.   So, did the federal government weigh the gains of TSA against the corresponding loss, the experts asked?

In addition, some think TSA may not even curb corruption in the end. An economist and columnist at the Vanguard newspaper, Dele Sobowale wrote that contrary to expectation, TSA will not reduce theft in public office because the stealing would have been carried out before MDAs deposit their revenues into CBN account. “Instead, what TSA will do is to bring MDA to a halt,” he wrote.

In the last few months, most agencies of the government appeared to have gone into the state of inertia, except the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC).

Already the government has exempted 13 agencies including Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from complying with TSA, a decision which the critics interpreted as some sort of policy reversal.

Nonetheless, the presidency has maintained that TSA has produced greater benefits than disadvantages. For instance, apart from raking N3 trillion, an amount which otherwise might have been kept hidden somewhere, the opaque accounting structure of the NNPC has been reconstructed to be more transparent with the closure of more than 40 accounts, said Mr. Adesina.

“As a corporate entity, NNPC is now accountable and more transparent in operations, publishing its monthly financial reports.”

Also, while speaking to journalists recently, the Minister of States for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu said Port Harcourt and Warri refineries which were initially grounded before the inauguration are back in operation with 60 per cent capacity and producing 7 million litres of PMS daily. The story is the same for the Kaduna refinery which resumed production last month. This is a far cry from 40 million litres of petrol that Nigeria consumes daily.

Thus, the government achievement is yet to alleviate the plight of Nigerians who have been queuing for long hours at the filling stations. The increase in the price of petrol from N86.50 to N145 per litre is still being viewed as a disappointment by Nigerians who expect the pump price to remain the same if it cannot at least come down as the price of crude oil continues to fall at the international market.

Buhari administration though had already explained that deregulation would save Nigerians more money in the long run, but the Nigeria Labour Congress is yet to be persuaded.

Also, the recent announcement by CBN that Nigeria is on the brink of recession due to the low level of economic activities in the country occasioned by the late passage of the 2016 budget may have blighted the success story of this administration.

But supporters of Buhari’s economic policies have argued that the tension in the economy at the moment is the outcome of 16 years of mismanagement by the Peoples Democratic Party-led government.   According to the Minister of Information, Lai Muhammed, Nigeria lost about N1.3 trillion in the last 8 years to public theft. Earlier, former CBN governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi has alleged that $20 billion is unaccounted for by NNPC. This theft led Nigeria into the fiscal crisis it is currently experiencing, said the Publicity Secretary of All Progressives Congress (APC) Joe Igbokwe during “Face-Off”, a Channels Television programme.

Security

One of the key promises of PMB was to subdue Boko Haram militants. The President described the group as “a mindless, godless group who are far away from Islam…”  And so far, many Nigerians agree with the government that the military has recorded significant success in the fight against the insurgents. The Presidency attributed the achievement to the relocation of the Nigerian Military Command Centre to Maiduguri, since May 2015. This was also possible through the operations of the 8, 500 strong Multi-National Joint Task Force in N’Djamena, the capital of Chad, currently headed by a Nigeria Military general.

According to the official report, the army has regained all Nigerian territories previously under Boko Haram control and has rescued 11,595 victims as at February.  So far Nigeria has provided $100 million to the Task Force outside the $45 million dollar pledge by the United State as revealed by the presidency. But the critics of Buhari’s government insist that the battle against Boko Haram terrorists is not won until Chibok girls are rescued. The President himself said something to that effect during his speech 365 days ago. “We cannot claim to have defeated Boko Haram without rescuing the Chibok girls and all other innocent persons held hostage by insurgents,” he said.

Today, almost all the Chibok girls are still in captivity, except those who escaped and those rescued recently. Notwithstanding, the presidency believes that the rescue of two captives, Amina Ali  and Serah Luka is  some achievement. Their recovery has opened a window of new hope to Nigeria and an opportunity towards vital information, said President Buhari.

The emergence of Niger Delta Avengers has also challenged whatever achievement the Buhari administration may have recorded in the last one year. The group, according to their spokesperson, Col Mudoch Agbinibo,  has sworn “to take the war to all installations in the various communities.” To make real their promise, the group has carried out more than four attacks on oil terminals within two months, causing a reduction in crude oil production up to 1.4 million barrels per day.

Dr. Kachikwu said the disruption is costing the nation as much as 800,000 barrels per day. With the crude price now selling at $50 per barrel according to a Wall Street report, Nigeria may be losing $4m per day. That translated to N1.3 billion per day at N320 per dollar.

Another security issue discrediting the performance of Buhari administration is the menace of herdsmen. Though the President has read a riot act to the marauders, the attack has not stopped yet. Recently, the herders have attacked Agwabi village in Binev Council Ward of Buruku local government area of Benue state and Oke Ako in Ikole Local government area of Ekiti State despite the public outrage against them over the previous attacks which had claimed hundreds of lives. The government has planned to establish grazing routes, but this proposal has also been a subject of controversy lately.

Anti-corruption

Right from the moment he won the Presidential Election in 2015, the President has left no one in doubt that he would go after the looters of public funds. To create a frame work for prosecuting the war against corruption and institutionalize probity, President Buhari set up an Advisory Committee on War Against Corruption.

The President also cut down the number of ministries from 42 to 25 to reduce the cost of governance, directed that all top government officials must prioritize on foreign travels, and use only business class tickets, instead of the statutory first class tickets.

Compared to the expenses of the previous administration, Buhari government has cut down heavily on the cost of governance. But many Nigerians believe that the government is still spending more than it should in running the affairs of the state.

To start with, the 2016 budget which President Buhari eventually signed after a long spell of controversy still contained a lot of outrageous spending.

For example, in the constituency projects approved for the year, 71 boreholes in 71 wards in Kebi South is to cost 710m. That is N10 million per borehole. Supply of empowerment materials in Borno South senatorial District is to cost N600m to mention a few. Several civil society groups have also raised the question as to why should Nigeria spend as much as N115 billion on the National Assembly at the time the country is held down in the economic recession. Recall that Nigeria lawmakers were ranked as the most paid lawmakers in the world, according to a survey done by the Economist of London. This kind of spending may have described the contradiction in the policy direction of the Buhari administration.

Regardless, the government reminded Nigerians that the anti-corruption battle is gaining ground with several high profile cases already in the courts.

But the opposition party insists that the trial is uni-directional, and it is largely a media trial which has resulted in no conviction. Lere Olayinka, the media aide to Ekiti State governor,  Ayo Fayose, described the trial of PDP  members as “charade” on a Channels television programme on Wednesday. But the presidency has maintained that the administration is being guided by the rule of law in the prosecution of corruption cases. The government cited the conviction the NIMASA ex-DG, Raymond Omotseye as an example of conviction, many of which they expect to happen soon.

Speaking about the efforts made so far, the President spokesperson Adesina said the present administration has enlisted the support of multilateral institutions like the World Bank and IMF, security agencies, Western countries and other friendly nations to source, locate and repatriate stolen assets.

At a London summit on anti-corruption, President Buhari announced that Nigeria will begin the full implementation of the principles of the OPEN contracting data standards.

Other achievements of Buhari in the fight against corruption as listed by Adesina includes Nigeria and UAE  Judicial Agreements signed on Extradition, Transfer of Sentenced Persons, Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Matters.

In March 2016, the Federal Government and the Swiss Government signed a Letter of Intent On the Restitution of Illegally-Acquired Assets forfeited in Switzerland. Under the agreement, Switzerland will repatriate $ 321 million USD illicitly   acquired by the Gen. Sani Abacha family.

In March 2016, the Presidential Committee set up to probe contracts awarded by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) from 2011 to 2015 announced the recovery of over N7 billion from indicted companies and individuals.

All these achievements are a sign of good things to come.

Job creation

Unemployment, notably youth unemployment, features strongly in Buhari Party’s Manifesto. In his inaugural speech, the President also promised, “to attack the problem frontally.”

One year after the promise, youth unemployment has risen to 42.24 percent, as 15.2million youths remain unemployed in the economy, according to the report released last week by National Bureau of Statistics.

This revelation may have reinforced the argument of the critic that Buhari government has no clear-cut blueprint on job creation. But the government again has debunked this claim.

As part of reducing joblessness in the land, President Buhari said his government would pursue economic diversification with the emphasis on agriculture to generate employment and promote export. Last month, he ordered the release of 10,000 tons of grains, from the National Strategic Grains Reserve, and directed the Ministry of Agriculture to assist able-bodied men and women in IDP camps to return to farms. Also, all the outstanding allowances of former militants studying in various institutions across the world have been paid so that they can return to put their skill to use.

The critics, however, faulted the 2016 budget, noting that the budget does not reflect the priority of the government which marked agriculture as a key sector. Indeed, Agriculture ministry ranks eighth on the hierarchy of 2016 budget allocation which is put at N75.8 billion. The allocation trails after the budget of National Security Adviser (88.9bn), Ministry of Transport (N202.3bn), Health (N250 bn), Education (N403bn), Defence  (N443bn), Works, Power and Housing (N456bn) and Interior (N513bn).

All considered, does the one year anniversary of President Buhari look promising?  The answer again depends on to whom the question is addressed. But in between the two extremes lies the truth.