Nigeria’s total imports fell by 4.59 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) of the year compared to the previous quarter, suggesting a moderate drop in the demand for foreign goods.
Foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), yesterday, showed that the country’s imports in Q1 valued N15.43 trillion compared to N16.59 trillion it imported in Q4 of last year.
However, on year-on-year (y-o-y), the value of imports rose by 4.59 per cent – a modest increase but not enough to plug the hole in the real value of the imports, when the nominal value is discounted for inflation, which is over 20 per cent.
In real terms, the data suggested the country imported less Q1 2025 compared to both the comparative quarter and Q4 2024.
The country’s trade balance remained positive but dropped by 20.1 per cent y-o-y. The trade surplus was N5.17 trillion compared to N6.52 trillion in Q1 2024.
The total merchandise trade stood at N36.02 trillion in the quarter under review, which represented an increase of 6.19 per cent, compared to the value of N33.93 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
But the figure fell by 1.58 per cent compared to the value recorded in the preceding quarter (N36.6 trillion).
Exports accounted for 57.18 per cent of total trade with a value of N20.6 trillion, showing an increase of 7.42 per cent over the value (N19.18 trillion) recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), this drop is unsurprising, as manufacturing capacity utilisation plummeted from 73.3 per cent in 1981 to 57 per cent last year and the sector’s contribution to the economy shrunk from 29.9 per cent to 8.6 per cent in the same period.
Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said real growth decelerated from 14.7 per cent in 2014 to 1.38 per cent during the period under review, while non-oil export contributions nose-dived from 82.37 per cent in 2019 to 25.13 per cent in 2024.
Data sourced from MAN also showed that smuggled goods from the land and sea borders continue to capture a significant market share in key sectors, undercutting local prices and causing revenue loss for manufacturers and local industries.
The flood of substandard and used products, The Guardian observed, threatens local manufacturing and contributed to the dwindling imports.
Further analysis shows that Nigeria’s exports continue to be dominated by crude oil, valued at N12.95 trillion representing 62.89 per cent of total exports while non-crude oil exports stood at N7.64 trillion accounting for 37.11 per cent of total exports, of which non-oil products contributed N3.16 trillion of total exports.
Also, the significant rise in unsold goods played a part, according to MAN, as inventory of unsold finished goods increased by 87.5 per cent to N2.14 trillion in 2024. This, the DG said, is due to low consumer purchasing power, high inflation and rising production costs.
China, the NBS noted, remains Nigeria’s highest trading partner on the import side, followed by India, United States of America, The Netherlands and The United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during Q1 were Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), Motor spirit ordinary, Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, cane sugar meant for sugar refinery, and Durum wheat.
Analysis by commodities showed that the main commodities exported to African countries in the quarter under review were ‘Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals’, ‘Light fuel oil’, ‘Electrical energy’, ‘Other Light oils and preparations’ and Urea. The top five products accounted for 90.21 per cent of total exports to Africa.
