By Helen Oji
Nigeria’s quest to expand its economy to $1 trillion in the coming years is drawing growing scepticism, as experts warn that the target will remain elusive without bold structural reforms and a clear strategy to strengthen trade relations.
 
The warning comes amid renewed concerns over the country’s economic trajectory, with fresh complications arising from the United States’ recent imposition of a 14 per cent tariff on Nigerian exports. 
 
The new trade barrier poses a significant threat to Nigeria’s global competitiveness at a time the Federal Government is banking on export-driven growth to realise its economic aspirations.
 
Speaking at the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos, yesterday, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director at Afreximbank, Dr Yemi Kale, cautioned that the current economic structure cannot support the rapid expansion needed to achieve the $1 trillion target within the timeframe set by the President Bola Tinubu administration.
 
According to him, the idea, while visionary, will require more than political promises or statistical recalibrations.
“To reach a $1 trillion economy by the end of this administration’s term, Nigeria would require yearly growth rates of over 40 per cent, a pace that is virtually unprecedented and, under current conditions, simply unachievable,” Kale stated. 
 
He added that even within a longer six-to-eight-year horizon, consistent double-digit real Gross domestic Product (GDP) growth would be essential, requiring deep and transformative economic reforms.
 
Kale identified Nigeria’s long-standing weaknesses in all four macroeconomic pillars: real, fiscal, monetary and external as major barriers to sustained growth.
 
He cited the agriculture sector, noting that the country’s persistently low maize yields of just 1.5 tonnes per hectare, compared to a global average of six to eight tonnes.

Combined with climate vulnerabilities and post-harvest losses estimated at 40 per cent, these challenges render agriculture a weak foundation for broad-based economic expansion.
 
“Growth for its own sake is insufficient. What Nigeria needs is quality growth that is inclusive, equitable, job-creating and resilience-building.”
President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Oye, also raised concerns on the nation’s trade and business competitiveness.
 
He described the U.S. tariff as a ‘severe blow’ to Nigerian exporters and a direct threat to enterprise growth and job creation, particularly in the non-oil sector.
 
“This tariff directly jeopardises enterprise growth and could precipitate job losses, especially among our struggling non-oil export players,” he warned.
 Oye, who is also the Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), criticised the unpredictable policy environment, urging the Federal Government to engage more with private sector stakeholders before rolling out far-reaching economic measures.
 
With inflation hitting 23.18 per cent in February 2025 and youth unemployment now exceeding 53 per cent, Oye warned that the cost-of-living crisis could worsen if Nigeria does not act swiftly to diversify its trade and economic base.
 
He called on the country to reduce its overdependence on Western trade partners and explore new markets across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Other experts at the event underscored the need for reform, especially around governance and institutional quality. 
 
Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Tayo Aduloju, emphasised that Nigeria’s growth potential would remain dormant without strengthening its political, economic and social institutions.
 
“We must build strong institutions. The poor quality of leadership and weak institutions are at the heart of our under-performance as a nation,” he said.
 
Also, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, stated that Nigeria’s trade policy remains heavily focused on revenue collection, to the detriment of business growth and investor attraction.
 
“Our tariff regime is too high and hostile to enterprise development. It is a trade policy built around revenue, not competitiveness,” he said.
 
As Nigeria presses forward with its $1 trillion GDP vision, the consensus among experts is clear: without urgent structural reforms, policy coherence and improved trade strategy, the target may remain aspirational rather than achievable.