• Fuel may return to January price level
• Oil nears budget benchmark as Dangote joins haulage with 4,000 tankers
• Export drops by 16.34% to N12.96tr in Q1
Nigeria may face petroleum product scarcity with consequential price hikes that could push pump prices to around N1,000 per litre as tension in the Middle East and a brewing tanker crisis pose fresh tension.
While Dangote Refinery, yesterday, unveiled the operation of 4,000 new compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered fuel tankers, a development which may render many existing operators and ageing articulated vehicles redundant, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO) announced its withdrawal from lifting petroleum products from the facility, effective today over face-off with Lagos State Government.
These come as Nigeria’s crude oil producers exported approximately N12.96 trillion products in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. The development, which is a validation of The Guardian’s report to the effect that the country would have lost about $5.7 billion to oil production shortfall in the first five months of the year, shows that local refineries would need to import more to survive as well as face price shocks and logistic disruptions due to geopolitical tensions at the international market.
The export value represents a N2.53 trillion or 16.34 per cent reduction when compared to the N15.49 trillion value of crude exported in Q1 2024. It is also N828 billion or 6.01 per cent short of Q4 2024’s N13.78 trillion figure.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics revealed that crude oil exports in Q1 2025 accounted for 62.89 per cent of Nigeria’s total export value of N20.6 trillion.
On Friday, escalating tensions in the Middle East caused global oil prices to surge by over 10 per cent. Brent crude rose more than eight per cent, reaching an intraday gain of 13 per cent. This came after Iran launched a wave of missile strikes on Israel in retaliation for the Israeli Air Force’s targeted assault on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure.
The sharp escalation has rattled energy markets already grappling with heightened geopolitical risks across the region. Average oil prices rose to around $75 per barrel, aligning with Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark. Nigerian crude, especially Bonny Light, Brass Rivers and Qua Iboe averaged $78 per barrel yesterday. If sustained, the development could yield Nigeria an additional $480 million in revenue.
In May alone, the country produced 45 million barrels at approximately $65 per barrel; with an additional $10 per barrel, the projected gain could reach nearly half a billion dollars to strengthen the country’s revenue outlook.
While this bodes well for government revenue and foreign exchange (FX) earnings, motorists may face further price hikes with oil prices returning to January levels, when petrol retailed at N990 per litre.
In a statement yesterday, Dangote Petroleum announced an entry into fuel distribution, which had originally been controlled by private tanker owners, especially NARTO. The hauling arrangement, an inside source in NARTO told The Guardian, would affect its operations.
Dangote disclosed that the move would begin on 15th August 2025.
The 650,000 barrels per day refinery is expected to distribute motor spirit and diesel to marketers, petrol dealers, manufacturers, telecom firms, aviation companies and other large consumers across the country with free logistics support.
According to the company, to ensure the successful rollout of the initiative, the company procured 4,000 brand-new CNG-powered tankers. It disclosed that the phase would continue over an extended timeframe, with additional investments in CNG daughter booster stations and a supporting fleet of over 100 CNG tankers across Nigeria to ensure uninterrupted distribution.
Describing the move as “strategic” and part of a broader commitment to eliminating logistics costs, promoting energy efficiency, supporting environmental sustainability and boosting Nigeria’s economic development, the company said it was a dedication to enhancing fuel availability and affordability, in alignment with national efforts to stabilise the economy and uplift the welfare of Nigerians. Under the initiative, all petrol stations sourcing PMS and diesel from Dangote Refinery would benefit from the enhanced logistics infrastructure.
Also, the refinery said it would extend a facility to customers purchasing a minimum of 500,000 litres, allowing access to an additional 500,000 litres on credit, repayable within two weeks under a bank guarantee arrangement.
According to the organisation, the initiative is expected to revitalise dormant petrol stations, generate employment, stimulate SMEs, increase government revenue, improve rural fuel access and strengthen investor confidence in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
IN a separate development, the National President of the NARTO, Lawal Othman, said the strike action by the Organisation came from a directive by the Lagos State Government introducing a N12,500 E-Call Up System for trucks operating along the Lekki–Epe Corridor.
Despite continued engagements, NARTO stated that no consensus had been reached on its counter-proposal of N2,500 per truck, which it believes to be more equitable and reflective of prevailing economic realities.
In light of the unresolved impasse, he said NARTO has advised that effective from 16th June 2025, all transporters instruct their depot representatives to suspend the programming of trucks for movement along the corridor until a mutually agreeable resolution is achieved. The corridor directly impacts Dangote Refinery.
“We appreciate your cooperation and urge all members to remain united and vigilant as we continue to engage the Lagos State Government in pursuit of a fair and sustainable outcome,” the statement said.
