Since the United States Airforce started its air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen some 4 weeks ago, they have not slowed down but have rather ramped up strikes on the positions of the Houthis destroying key military infrastructure and eliminating some of its leaders however in a season of significant instability in the Middle East the spotlight has come on Iran and the need for it to abandon its nuclear programme.
On March 7th President Donald Trump disclosed that he had sent a letter to the Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei for direct talks over its nuclear programme. In the letter he stated that “I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily it’s going to be a terrible thing.” Since then, the US military buildup in the region has increased significantly with heavy strategic bombers, aircraft carriers, air defence batteries and other military assets moving into positions across the region and ongoing with a lot of focus and special interest on Diego Garcia a British controlled Island in the midst of the Indian Ocean about 4,800km away from the shores of Tehran. This remote Island has become host to some of the US Airforce finest fighter jets the B-2 stealth bombers. Iran responded by displaying to the world its underground city of ballistic missiles, attack drones and said it cannot be bullied by the US.
In 2018 President Trump in his first term had walked away from the deal Iran signed with world powers in 2015 and reimposed US sanctions on the Islamic Republic. His view was that the deal was a bad one. Since then, the Islamic state has exceeded the agreed limits of its uranium enrichment levels. Experts believe Tehran is just a few months away from acquiring a bomb as a result the Trump administration will only allow for about two months of negotiations as there was not much time because they are not going to be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. President Trumps says he wants “Iran to thrive” and be prosperous, but the country is run by hardliners who are guided by other principles and have declared many times publicly that Israel is a cancer in the region and must be wiped off the map. The Israeli politicians and military take those words seriously and that is why they are committed more than anyone else to end the Islamic Republic’s drive towards nuclear capability.
While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington on his recent visit, President Donald Trump revealed that American delegations were going to be meeting with the Iranians in Oman in direct negotiations on April 12, but the Iranians in their response said that they are willing to talk with the US but there would only accept an indirect approach. This is clearly an issue of mistrust between both countriesand that has been the case for a very long time. Washington continues to bolster its military presence in the region mounting maximum pressure on Iran to choose the path of peace however in a speech marking the Muslim Holiday of Eid-el-Fitr, Ayatollah Khamenei promised that the Zionist entity and the Americans will receive a harsh and powerful blow if they undertake any bad action”.Eventually the discussions began, and both parties stated after the 2 hours long meeting that they had “constructive” talks with a plan to meet again in days.
What will the US be asking for?
In an effort to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear programme as it advances towards a bomb, tension mounted by the United States on Tehran has brought it to the table. High level talks have been held in Muscat as representatives of both countries met in the Omani capital. Iran has claimed repeatedly that its nuclear programme is peaceful, but no one believes what they say as nothing they do suggest otherwise. The United Nations UN atomic watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA believes Iran has enough nuclear materials to make 6 bombs and has a very short time to reach weapons grade uraniumif they decide to acquire the bomb. So, it is believed that the US wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear programme completely or better still revert to previously agreed rangeand stop supporting its proxies in the region, but Jerusalem wants Iran to completely dismantle the programme because they cannot be trusted.
If Diplomacy fails, will Israel go it alone?
In 1981 Saddam Hussein had a clandestine nuclear programme being built in Iraq. Israeli secret intelligence picked it up and a military plan was put in place. That reactor was taken out on that beautiful evening in June of that year. Israeli jets dropped their bombs and in minutes, the reactor was gone. In the mid 2000s, the Israeli Mossad found out former president of SyriaBashal al-Assad had a secret nuclear programme in place going on smoothly with the help of North Korea. The Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his security heads decided that the Jewish state cannot live with nuclear weapons in the hands of its enemies next door. The Israeli military launched “Operation Orchard” and in the midnight of September 6, 2007,Israeli fighter jetsflew into Syria airspace and made their way to the location of the reactor deep inside Syria, dropped their ordinance and the reactor was no more.However, with Iran it is a completely different ball game. The Israelis have got special interest in the Iranian nuclear pursuit. Weapons grade materials in the hands of the Mullahs is an existential threat. A situation they cannot accept to live with. They developed plans to impede and slow down its progress. It is believed that they have sabotaged the facilities in different ways many times in the past even though they don’t acknowledge it, stolen documents and even accused by Iran of assassinating some of its nuclear scientists in what can only be described as high-risk covert operations if they indeed actually carried out those killings. Iran unlike Iraq and Syria has more than just one nuclear facility and they are scattered across the country and well fortified. Some of those facilities are built deep beneath mountains.The Israel Air Force IAF have been practicing for this mission for quite sometime now. In Israel they have prepared to go it alone if need be because for them they cannot leave their destiny in the hands of others or outsource their security. Its leadership have said time and again that the Shiite state will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. With President Trump in the White House, Israel believes it is the best opportunity they have to halt Iran’s nuclear programme and so if diplomacy fails, Netanyahu just might order attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iran’s likely reaction if attacked
In the event that the US president carry through with his threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehran will respond, and its response is likely to be strategic with the intent to destabilize the region. They will disrupt free flow of maritime traffic on the strait of Hormuz the world most important oil transit chokepoint through which about 30% of the world’s oil passes through, and that disruption will cause energy crisis around the world and will see oil prices shoot well over $100 per barrel sparking off real crisis while the disruption last. It is expected that they will target practically every USbase in the region which invariable would set the entire region on fire. From Saudi Arabia to the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and of course Israel. The US understand this very well and has quietly deployed and activated air defence batteriesin these countries to protect its bases.Even though the Gulf states don’t want to see an Iran with nuclear weapons, they would persuade President Trump to avoid using US military bases in their territory to launch attacks on Tehran. An Iranian military general was quoted to have said ‘there will be no distinction in targeting British or American forces if Iran is attacked from any base in the region or within the range of Iranian missiles. When the time comes it won’t matter whether you are an American, British or Turkish soldier, you will be targeted if your base is used by Americans”.
Conclusion
Iran’s nuclear programme has been of great concern for its neighbours, the west and especially Israel since the secret project was discovered. It has raised fears that the programme is not for peaceful purposes but with the intent to build nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey have all made it clear that if Iran acquires nuclear capability, they too will go for it because for them they see the Shiite state as a regional threat. For the US and the Jewish state, a bomb in the hands of hardliners in Iran is not acceptable and so they must be stopped at all costs. The leadership in Iran had strategically outsourced its wars to be fought by its proxies across the Middle East away from its shores. However, going by the wars in the region in the last 19 months, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis have been badly decimated. With this reality, it is my view that the leadership in Iran arelikely to havemade that decisive decision to go for the bomb for deterrence. If this is the case, it is pertinent to state that the Israelis and western intelligence have eyes everywhere in the country and would likely pick it up if the nodto enrich stockpile uranium to bomb grade has been given. Diplomacy remains the preferable option to resolve this critical issue for this volatile region that has seen so much conflict lately, but the possibility of war is very high going by the principles the Mullahs in Tehran live by and the determination of the Jewish state to stop them. Negotiations have begun, and the world hopes thatWashington and Tehran can find a common ground where peace, prosperity and a world without nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran is achieved.
Uwem Samson Udom is a business service expert who is passionate about national and global affairs. He writes from Lagos and can be reached at [email protected]
