The primordial sentiments of age, gender, religion and zoning formula are rarely paramount in progressive governance and leadership. But in Oyo State, emotive criteria are taking the front seats ahead of the 2027 elections, with the incumbent governor cheerleading with a controversial age limit argument, SEYE OLUMIDE and ROTIMI AGBOLUAJE report. 

Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde, recently disclosed his desire for a generational shift in electing his successor in 2027, when he declared that he would not support any aspirant older than 52 years.

Makinde, who is 57 years old, became governor at 51, making him the youngest person to have governed the state since 1999.

He said: “When I came in as governor of Oyo State at 51, some people believed it was impossible, and against all odds, the impossibility became a possibility. I have decided that come 2027, I will not support any candidate above the age of 52 in my party.”

He expressed this opinion at the Debo Ogundoyin Students’ Legislative Summit held at the International Conference Centre, University of Ibadan (UI). Ogundoyin, who is 37 years old, is serving his second term as the Speaker of the Oyo State House of Assembly. He became the Speaker at the age of 31, the youngest ever to lead the legislative arm of government in the country.

If Makinde’s stance becomes one of the conditions to elect a governorship candidate of his party, ambitions of some of his party leaders, including Deputy National Chairman of the PDP, Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja, and Director-General and Global Liaison for the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership, Joseph Olasunkanmi Tegbe, would have been dashed.

Other governorship hopefuls above 52 years in PDP include, Chairman of State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB), Dr Nureni Adeniran; founder of Ilaji Farm and Resorts, Dotun Sanusi; former member, House of Representatives, Shina Peller; Chief of Staff to the Governor, Segun Ogunwuyi; lawmaker representing Ibadan Northwest/Southwest Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, Stanley Olajide Adedeji; former aide to Governor Makinde, Mrs Bolanle Satumi, and a columnist and former House of Representatives member, Lanre Agoro.

The governor’s age requirement may have also disqualified many aspirants from the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is staging a comeback after losing power to the PDP in 2019.

Some of the “over aged” gladiators include its 2023 governorship candidate and former Senate leader, Teslim Folarin; current Minister of Power, Chief Bayo Adelabu; Senator Fatai Buhari, who is representing Oyo North; member of the House of Representatives, Remi Oseni; former Chairman of Ibadan branch of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Mr Akeem Agbaje, presidential media aide, Mr Sunday Dare; House of Representatives member, Mr Akin Alabi and former Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu.

Despite causing ripples within the party, many stakeholders have described Makinde’s position as “wishful thinking”, which is not constitutional and has no precedence in the governorship race in the state.

However, they advised the governor to prioritise competence and capacity over age while seeking for his successor instead of nursing ambition of enthroning a “puppet governor” without the experience to govern a complex state like Oyo.

Indeed, Chapter 6, Part 2, section 177 (b) of the 1999 Constitution says “a person shall be qualified for election to the office of governor of a state if he has attained the age of 35 years,” and does set age limit, among other qualifications.

Faulting Makinde’s position on setting age limit for his successor in 2027, Adebayo Shittu dismissed the raging issue “as a personal opinion, which contravenes the Electoral Act, 1999 Constitution and even PDP Constitution as far as I know.

“I also consider the governor’s position as an arrogant and very ungodly statement unbefitting of any democrat. He does not have the power to decide who gets power either by age, competence and other factors that can only be determined by God. It is also unconstitutional for him to make it legitimate that a particular age limit will or must succeed him in office.

“Are we saying that if the particular age he is looking up to is not competent or has the capability and capacity to rule, Oyo State should sacrifice the older ones whose competence cannot be overlooked?

“Another thing is that it is only within the PDP he can insist on who he will impose, not on APC. He made that statement because of some of us who are in the opposition or who are also interested, and may perform better than him when we get into that office. I know for myself that I can perform better.

“I got elected into Oyo State of Assembly at the age of 26. I was a commissioner at age 39 and have been an Attorney General of the state and also a minister. There are some aspirants who have had such experiences in public office. Should we jettison these backgrounds for generational shift, not possible?”

Also disagreeing with age limit set by Makinde for his successor, Chairman of Youth Party (YP) in Oyo State, Lanre Haruna, said though the governor has the right to his personal opinion under democracy, he cannot force it on the members of his party not to talk of Oyo in general.

According to him, “I believe in the power of people and I also believe in what I can do. We have some brilliant young people that can perform better than the older ones. But we also have some elders that are so diplomatic who can afford to bring anything to the table. The most important thing is who we can trust with power and governance. The governor might want to have a say because he is in power today and people will follow that direction but if we have any formidable force even within his PDP to object to his position, then he wouldn’t have a choice.

“Politics is best played according to the rules and the Constitution, not according to dictatorship or feelings. Everybody is a stakeholder in politics whether you like it or not.”

But Prof. Michael Lana, who contested the 2023 gubernatorial election under the platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP) but later stepped down for Makinde and joined PDP, said that Oyo ruling party has not made any pronouncement on age group to contest the 2027 election.

According to him, “I just read the governor’s statement in the social media and not that I witnessed where he said it. If ever the governor said so, the Constitution makes it clear that everybody has a right to have a criteria on who he will support. PDP will go through primaries and members will vote.

“Issue of age doesn’t determine competence and capacity. We’ve seen governors that are young in age who fumbled in Nigeria and whereas some elderly ones performed.”

However, the spokesman of Southwest PDP, Sanya Atofarati, said the governor is at liberty to take his decision on whatever happened in his state and therefore I cannot speak for him.

But as to where the party stands, he said, “there is room for primary elections, which would be done in accordance with the constitution of the PDP and 1999 Constitution.”

APC Publicity Secretary, Olawale Sadare, said the criteria applicable to selecting candidates in the party are not the same as what is obtainable in the PDP.

Apart from the controversial issue of generational shift agenda, which Makinde is introducing to the governorship contest ahead of 2027, agitation for zoning the slot to Oyo town/Oke-Ogun axis is gaining traction by the day.

Oyo State is divided into three geopolitical zones: Oke-Ogun/Oyo town, Ogbomoso, and Ibadan. Since 1999, Ogbomoso and Ibadan have dominated power in spite of Oyo town/Oke-Ogun.

It is on record that Ibadan produced former governors, Lam Adesina (1999), Rasheed Ladoja (2003), Abiola Ajimobi (2011) and Makinde in 2019. Whereas Oyo town/Oke-Ogun is yet to produce a governor. The agitation now is that both PDP and APC should zone their governorship ticket to that axis.

Adebayo Shittu recently declared that the Oke-Ogun zone would not settle for the deputy governorship slot in 2027. The former minister said leaders from Oke-Ogun, particularly those affiliated with the APC, had commenced strategic meetings to ensure the zone produces the next governor.

He said: “Oke-Ogun is already meeting on the governorship cause. We met recently at Ado Awaye, at the residence of the former Deputy Governor, Iyiola Oladokun.”

Shittu, who lamented that Ibadan had disproportionately dominated leadership in Oyo State, producing four out of the five governors since the return to democracy in 1999, said, “It’s time for Ibadan to concede to Oke-Ogun.”

Speaking on the zoning debate, a political thinker and lecturer at the Lead City University, Ibadan, Prof. Akeem Amodu, said: “Objectively speaking, political realities in the pacesetter state often defy rigid zoning principles, aside not being a constitutional provision. Look at the history of pre-election power dynamics within Oyo State. It is a history of constant overriding of regional or zonal considerations, despite the yearnings of Oke-Ogun and Oyo Zones.

“And this is the case with virtually all the parties including the ruling PDP and the now leading opposition party, APC,” Amodu posited.

On his part, Prof. Ojo, a former Chief of Staff to the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi said, “Ibadan has a better chance of producing Makinde’s successor for demographic advantages. The city controls more than 55 per cent of the total vote in the state.”

But a lecturer at the Lead City University, Ibadan, Dr Bayo Busari, disagreed with either zoning, or age factors in electing the next governor. What mattered to him is the ability to deliver on the much needed development needs of the state.

He, however, said since politics is a game of numbers, unless there’s a compromise, those who have the figure will play a determinant role on where the next governor comes from.

While Makinde had said he would make input into who would succeed him, Busari said, “No one should be under any illusion that the successor to Governor Makinde will emerge on a platter of gold. The people of the state are getting wiser by the tenures of Senator Abiola Ajimobi and Engr Makinde. The implication of this is that whoever will emerge as governor of the state in 2027 must be a man of his own, who must have a pedigree as well as a sense of purpose to build on the good works that the last two governors have embarked upon. Oyo State cannot settle for less.”