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A backgrounder, titled ‘Countdown Begins on Nigeria’s Crucial 2023 Elections’, was published Friday by the Brussels-based conflict prevention and peacebuilding group.
ICG wants improved security in North-West and South-East zones, especially around the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The body called for an end to toxic disputations between the major parties to avoid further tensions that could escalate to wider violence during and after the polls.
The third priority is for INEC to firm up arrangements and ensure a clean voters’ register and seamless electronic transmission of results in real time on election days.
Crisis Group also urged anti-corruption agencies to curb potentially massive vote buying, through intensified surveillance of politicians and banks.
The statement said most Nigerians are “increasingly disenchanted” with how democracy “has worked – or not worked” and are approaching 2023 as an opportunity to usher in “new leadership that will commit to reforming the country’s governance, restoring its security…and rebooting its development.”
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ICG observes that the election still faces several challenges that are unprecedented in terms of their spread across the country.
These include the decade-long jihadist insurgency in parts of the North-East, diverse armed clusters in the North-West and North-Central zones, and violence by armed groups associated with/impersonating Biafra separatist agitators in the South-East.
ICG notes that their activities, attacks on INEC’s offices and on highways, are hampering election preparations in many areas and could depress voters’ turnout or mar the ballots entirely in some constituencies.
“Preparations are also being challenged by campaign-related tensions and growing incidents of violence. These tensions are partly driven by verbal and online altercations among the main parties and their supporters.”
The statement regrets the disclosure by the national security adviser, retired Major General Babagana Monguno, that police recorded 52 incidents of election-related violence in 22 states between September 28 and November 11, 2022.
ICG observed the deadlier incidents since then, including the assassination of party officials and candidates in Kaduna and Imo states.
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“Other factors that are aggravating tensions and violence include the surge of misinformation, disinformation, hate speech and bullying on social media; activities of hired thugs and state-sponsored vigilantes that are allegedly harassing and intimidating opposition candidates.”
Crisis Group fears the polls may witness vote buying on an unprecedented scale as some politicians and parties are devising new schemes to buy votes and voters’ cards from poor citizens, despite INEC’s newly introduced safeguards.
“Massive vote buying would deeply compromise the election’s integrity and undermine confidence in the results,” the organisation warned.
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