The conflict of interest over property rights or otherwise between the Ogun State government and its ex-governor is not just a civil contest. It has a stronger undercurrent in old political rivalry and 2027 senatorial ambitions, AZEEZ OLORUNLOMERU reports.

The lingering face-off between the Ogun State Government, led by Governor Dapo Abiodun, and Senator Gbenga Daniel assumed a new dimension on Wednesday after the state chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) announced the suspension of the senator for alleged anti-party activities.

The suspension came at a time Senator Daniel is fighting tooth and nail to salvage his Asoludero residence and Conference Hotel in Sagamu Local Government Area from demolition.

Daniel had accused the state government of planning to demolish his properties under the Ogun State Urban and Regional Planning and Development Law No. 61 of 2022, despite claiming the buildings were legally constructed before the law came into effect.

Governor Abiodun and Senator Daniel, who currently represents Ogun East in the Senate, have been at loggerheads before, during, and after the 2023 general elections.

While Abiodun’s loyalists accused Daniel of undermining the governor’s leadership of the party in the state, Daniel repeatedly alleged that Abiodun did not support President Bola Tinubu during the APC presidential primary, but backed another aspirant.

Insiders maintain that Abiodun was never comfortable with Daniel’s emergence as senator of the Ogun-East, largely because of the former’s ambition to occupy the seat after completing his second term in 2027. The governor was said to have preferred a weaker candidate, but party leaders and Tinubu insisted that Daniel be given the ticket.

Since Daniel’s election, the relationship between the two men has deteriorated. Abiodun’s camp accuses Daniel of fraternising with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Daniel’s loyalists claim the governor is determined to cripple his influence within the APC.

Both gladiators hail from the Ogun-East senatorial region. Daniel, who governed the state between 2003 and 2011 on the PDP platform, defected to the APC in 2019. That year, he played a decisive role in Abiodun’s victory after then-Governor Ibikunle Amosun openly opposed Abiodun and backed Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

Analysts note that Abiodun might not have won without Daniel’s support. With Amosun, who was the incumbent governor running for Ogun Central, while Akinlade, his preferred candidate, came from Ogun West, Abiodun massively relied on Daniel’s grassroots machinery and the backing of the late Senator Buruji Kashamu to win in 2019.

How their alliance collapsed so quickly remains a puzzle. Many APC members allege Daniel has leaned on his PDP links to survive, while accusing Abiodun of wielding the APC structure to suppress him since he became senator.

The latest flashpoint came during a recent by-election, when Daniel was accused of quietly supporting the PDP candidate against the APC’s flag bearer, who had the governor’s backing.

Suspension and its fallout
FOLLOWING the allegations, the APC in Ogun announced Daniel’s suspension, deepening cracks within the party. He was suspended alongside Kunle Folarin for alleged anti-party activities.

Their suspension, announced by the State Working Committee (SWC) after reports from their ward disciplinary committees in Sagamu, cited gross misconduct, refusal to honour invitations to defend themselves, and alleged intimidation of members.

APC’s Publicity Secretary, Olufemi Nuberu, said both men ignored summons and pressured members to withdraw petitions filed against them. The SWC, chaired by Yemi Sanusi, ratified their indefinite suspension pending further investigation.

Nuberu stressed that the decision was to safeguard discipline and uphold internal democracy.

Ogun’s big three and shifting loyalties
GOING down memory lane, Abiodun, Daniel, and Amosun belong to what was once dubbed “the big three” in Ogun politics. Their falling out underscores the saying that there are no permanent friends in politics, only permanent interests.

Daniel, founder of Kresta Laurel, had the fortune of becoming governor before the others. At the end of his second term, he allegedly attempted to block Amosun’s gubernatorial ambition by supporting another candidate.

Having earlier defeated Amosun in 2007, Daniel tried to use incumbency in 2011 but failed.

Despite Daniel’s opposition, Amosun went on to become governor on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011. He was re-elected in 2015 after ACN dissolved into APC.

Amosun’s later attempt to impose Akinlade as the APC governorship candidate against Abiodun in 2019 backfired, forcing his allies into APM. President Tinubu, then leader of the APC, supported Abiodun to supplant Amosun, whose closeness to then-President Muhammadu Buhari had emboldened him to aim higher.

With Abiodun’s tenure now winding down, he appears to have fallen out with Daniel in another cycle of estrangement, fueled by succession battles.

Gladiators across the state’s three senatorial districts, East, West, and Central are already aligning for 2027. The Abiodun–Daniel rivalry is reshaping calculations not only for the governorship but also for the Ogun East senatorial ticket and Tinubu’s regional standing.

Ogun East factor and 2027 ambitions
THE 2027 race for the Ogun East senatorial seat is at the heart of the crisis. Both Abiodun and Daniel, natives of the district, are said to be eyeing the seat. Like his predecessors, Abiodun reportedly hopes to transit to the Senate after his governorship.

An APC stakeholder noted: “While Governor Abiodun wants to go to the Senate in 2027, Senator Daniel wants to retain the seat.”

The clash complicates the succession question. Mutual friends may attempt intervention, but it remains uncertain whether Abiodun will focus on producing a successor and allow Daniel to return to the Senate, or whether Daniel will step aside for Abiodun.

Meanwhile, Senator Olamilekan Solomon (Yayi), who represents Ogun West, is also nursing a governorship ambition. Although Ogun West has never produced a governor, Solomon insists that competence should override zoning.

Still, Abiodun’s likely support for his candidacy is unclear. Aides suggest the governor may look elsewhere, a move that could weaken the APC’s cohesion. If Abiodun and Daniel concentrate on fighting for the Senate, the APC may lose ground on the governorship, opening the way for opposition parties.

Ogun West leaders, however, remain adamant. “Since 1976, Ogun West has been marginalised. If we don’t get it in 2027, when will our turn come?” asked a Yewa traditional leader at a town hall in Ilaro.

From Ogun Central, some stakeholders believe the ticket should be returned to them after Daniel’s eight years in office. The most prominent figure whispered is Finance Minister Wale Edun, a long-time Tinubu ally. While Edun has not declared interest, his closeness to Tinubu fuels speculation that he may be used to stabilise Ogun politics.

One APC insider noted: “If the president wants compromise in Ogun, Edun is the safest bet.” A presidency source even suggested Tinubu could use Edun to settle disputes, asking Yayi to remain in the Senate, Daniel to retain his seat, and offering Abiodun a federal role if Tinubu wins re-election.

Amosun loyalists and elder statesman Segun Osoba are also quietly observing. Amosun, though weakened, still fires occasional salvos. In a jab at Abiodun, he declared earlier this year: “Some people came into government by accident. Ogun deserves better leadership.”

At 86, Osoba emphasises governance and warns APC to tread carefully to avoid ceding the state to the opposition.

Tinubu’s stakes in Ogun
FOR President Tinubu, Ogun is critical. The state hosts major industrial hubs, economic corridors, and influential political actors. Retaining APC control here is vital to consolidating his grip on the Southwest ahead of 2027.

Tinubu’s long-standing relationships with Abiodun, Daniel, Amosun, and Edun give him unusual leverage, but managing their rivalries without alienating blocs is a delicate balancing act.

Whispers in Abuja suggest Tinubu is closely monitoring Ogun and will not allow it to slip to the opposition. Ogun is more than a state contest; it is a test of his ability to impose order in the APC across the South-West, where succession ambitions are already heating up in Lagos, Oyo, and Ekiti.

Window for PDP, ADC
WHILE APC dominates Ogun, its crisis creates openings for opposition parties. The PDP, though weakened, retains pockets of support. Segun Showunmi, a PDP chieftain, declared recently: “APC is busy fighting itself. PDP is reorganising. Ogun people will have a clear alternative in 2027.”

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), once buoyed by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, has since lost steam but hopes to play kingmaker. “We are talking with other opposition parties,” said ADC chairman, Chief Gbolade Osinowo. “If APC breaks, we will be ready.”

History shows the danger: in 2019, Akinlade’s defection to APM nearly toppled APC dominance. A similar split could open doors for PDP or ADC.

Governance versus politics
At the heart of the tussle is its impact on governance. Ogun faces urgent developmental challenges: dilapidated roads despite its industrial status, growing unemployment, and the need to leverage its proximity to Lagos.

Opposition figures accuse Abiodun of prioritising political survival over governance. “Ogun people are suffering,” PDP’s Ladi Adebutu charged. “Our roads are bad, our schools underfunded, and instead of addressing these, the governor is fighting Gbenga Daniel.”

Defending his record, Abiodun countered: “We are building roads, investing in education and health, and opening Ogun to investors. Politics will not distract us.”

Yet the longer the rift drags, the more it risks derailing governance and heightening political instability. Ogun’s history of elite quarrels offers little comfort for its 7.5 million residents, who desire continuity in development rather than endless power struggles.

Several efforts to reach the senator for his reaction to the suspension were unsuccessful yesterday. While his media aides declined to comment, he himself neither answered calls nor responded to messages.

In the same vein, one of Senator Amosun’s aides explained that his principal would rather keep silent for now, saying: “We prefer to stay off the matter until the national body steps in.”