President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms have begun to stabilise Nigeria’s economy following the removal of fuel subsidy and exchange rate unification, according to a new report highlighting improved macroeconomic and sectoral indicators.
The report noted that inflation, which had surged in the wake of subsidy removal and naira depreciation, has started to ease. Headline inflation dropped from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 21.82 per cent in July 2025, the sharpest mid-year fall in more than a decade. The Central Bank’s monetary tightening, foreign exchange stabilisation around N1,501 to N1,530 per dollar, and improved food supply contributed to the slowdown
The report also pointed out that the initial impact of the reforms on companies was severe. Seven consumer goods firms, including Nigerian Breweries, Nestlé Nigeria and BUA Foods, recorded a combined N418 billion loss in the first quarter of 2024 due to foreign exchange volatility and high borrowing costs. However, the companies posted a combined pre-tax profit of N289.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025 and N264 billion in the second quarter.
MTN Nigeria, Guinness Nigeria and Cadbury, which had suspended dividend payments during the downturn, are now on course to resume payouts, signalling renewed investor confidence.
The capital market has responded positively to the reforms. Equities transactions hit N6 trillion between January and July 2025, twice the total for the whole of 2024. The All-Share Index has gained 37.25 per cent year-to-date, unlocking N26.6 trillion in capital gains and lifting market capitalisation to N89.37 trillion. The report said eight new firms crossed the $1 billion valuation mark in 2025, joining Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa.
On external trade, the report recorded a significant increase in non-oil exports. Between January and March 2025, non-oil export earnings rose by 65.06 per cent to N1.7 trillion compared with N1.02 trillion in the same period of 2024. The share of agriculture in total exports increased from 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 to 8.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Agricultural imports fell, leading to a trade surplus of N668.3 billion.
Nigeria also exported 663 million metric tonnes of goods valued at N474.4 billion to 11 ECOWAS countries between January and June 2025, while exports outside the region grew under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The balance of payments showed further improvements. The report said Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $3.73 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $6.83 billion for the whole of 2024, reversing years of deficits. Foreign reserves increased in tandem with a stronger balance of payments position.
The report emphasised that the reforms have had structural impacts across different sectors. For the banking industry, the liberalisation of the exchange rate system deepened market activity, with autonomous sources supplying more than 70 per cent of foreign exchange inflows. In the manufacturing sector, firms improved efficiency, cut costs and embraced backward integration, contributing to export growth.
It also noted that agricultural output benefited from the government’s intervention programmes, higher private investment and greater access to credit. As a result, food production expanded while the sector continued to attract both local and foreign investors.
The report concluded that although the initial effects of Tinubu’s reforms were painful, the Nigerian economy is now showing signs of recovery. It stressed that the stability in exchange rate, rebound in company earnings, and improvements in trade and reserves indicate that the reforms are yielding results and setting the foundation for sustainable growth.
