Sir: A few weeks ago, Nigerians were greeted with news that the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had introduced a 15 per cent import duty on petroleum products brought into the country.

The primary justification for this policy was the urgent need to boost non-oil revenue, as Nigeria continues to operate a mono-revenue economy vulnerable to international oil price shocks; circumstances entirely outside its control. This vulnerability has made economic planning difficult and the economy itself unpredictable. For years, experts have called for alternative revenue streams, and the new tariff was presented as a step in that direction.

Another driving force behind the policy was the need to reduce the nation’s dependence on imported fuel. Fuel importation has historically created multiple challenges, including high pump prices, exposure to substandard or adulterated products, and the entrenchment of cartels that distort the market.

Additionally, the government emphasised the need to support local refineries, especially as the Dangote Refinery begins to hit its 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) production capacity. With the refinery reportedly producing over 100 million litres of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel daily; far above the national average consumption of about 48 million litres; the government felt obligated to back such domestic capacity.

This support is expected to grow as Dangote pursues its planned expansion to 1.4 million bpd in the coming year. In government’s view, the import duty would help strengthen Nigeria’s path to long-term energy security.

While many citizens welcomed the move, critics argued that the duty could increase product prices by as much as ₦99.75 per litre, worsening the hardship of consumers and businesses already grappling with inflation and exchange-rate instability.

They also warned that over-dependence on a single local supplier could create a monopoly, reducing competition and potentially harming consumers. Concerns were further raised about supply risks and the negative impact on investments in import-dependent infrastructure, such as tank farms and shipping assets.

Mindful of the political backlash it previously faced from the abrupt removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, the federal government reacted quickly. It announced the suspension of the import duty, which had been slated to take effect in December 2025.

With the festive season approaching, officials explained that the suspension was intended to prevent unnecessary price hikes, preserve supply stability, and ease the burden on households and businesses. Government further suggested that the policy might be reintroduced in January 2026.

Though many have welcomed the suspension, experts warn that this relief may be temporary. A likely reintroduction of the duty means consumers may still face higher prices in the new year. More concerning, however, is the uncertainty the suspension creates for investors; particularly those who have invested heavily in local refining capacity.

Conversely, the decision may offer comfort to investors in fuel-import infrastructure. The impact of policy inconsistency in any economy cannot be overstated; when investors perceive unpredictability, declines. It is the responsibility of government to strike an equitable balance that protects all stakeholders and avoids destabilising ripple effects.

The situation serves as a wake-up call for more strategic stakeholder engagement and a thoughtful approach to energy sector reform. It also underscores the need for the establishment of an Energy Bank; an institution dedicated to funding investments across the oil and gas value chain. For a country that has relied heavily on oil revenues for decades, now is the time to reinvest in the industry’s long-term sustainability. Government must adopt deliberate strategies to strengthen energy security by incentivizing local investment and promoting value creation across the sector.

Prioritising local production over importation is not merely patriotic, it is economically sound. At the same time, policymakers must address the high cost of production and other structural challenges that discourage investors from expanding domestic capacity. A sector as strategic as energy cannot be left to external players while the nation faces high unemployment and limited industrial growth. The path forward requires collaboration, consistency, and bold reforms that align national interest with investor confidence.

Adolphus Aletor, a bank executive with experience in retail commercial and investment banking, wrote from Lagos.