GDP growth: LCCI expresses concerns over economic stability

The Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr Chinyere Almona, said that while the newly released GDP growth figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) purportedly indicate a positive trajectory, they raise critical concerns regarding real productivity and economic stability. 

She said the disproportionate impacts of the services sector and declining contributions from agriculture and manufacturing pose sustainability risks. 
“Economic growth driven largely by trade and finance must be complemented by robust industrial and agricultural expansion to create quality jobs, enhance value addition and ensure food security,” she said.

She added that the 3.84 per cent growth in Q4 is a notable acceleration from the 2.74 per cent recorded in 2023, demonstrating economic resilience despite prevailing macroeconomic and structural challenges. 

“The Q4 GDP growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which accounted for 57.38 per cent of the economy, reflecting its increasing role in job creation and economic activity. The agriculture sector contributed 25.59 per cent, while industry accounted for 17.03 per cent.
  
“Notably, the petroleum refining sector recorded a remarkable recovery, growing by 9.6 per cent, due to the commencement of refining operations at the Dangote Refinery. Alarmingly, the manufacturing sector’s contribution declined to 8.07 per cent from 8.23 per cent in Q4 2023, highlighting persistent structural constraints.”

She also noted that despite improvement in oil production, which averaged 1.54 mbpd in Q4, the sector’s contribution to GDP remains limited. She said the sector’s volatility continues to expose the economy to external shocks, underscoring the urgency of diversifying the revenue base. 

To achieve a sustainable and inclusive growth trajectory, she said Nigeria must address structural bottlenecks that hinder productivity across key sectors. She urged the government to implement policies that incentivise domestic production, enhance ease of doing business and facilitate access to finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). 

“A comprehensive industrialisation strategy should be developed to boost local manufacturing capacity. Also, given the agriculture sector’s critical role in employment and food security, increased investment in mechanisation, irrigation and improved seed varieties is essential. Policies to enhance rural infrastructure, market access, and value chain development should be pursued aggressively,” she noted.Almona urged the government to address Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit, particularly in power, roads and ports.   
 
“Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be expanded to bridge financing gaps in critical infrastructure projects. Furthermore, the proposed tax reforms should be well communicated and have a definite implementation strategy to support economic expansion without overburdening businesses. We need a transparent and equitable tax regime that promotes investment and encourages compliance.

“Ensuring FX stability is vital for investor confidence and economic planning. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should continue to adopt policies that facilitate liquidity, stabilise the naira and encourage capital inflows.

“Most importantly, addressing insecurity, particularly in agrarian regions, is critical for sustained growth. The government should intensify efforts to curb banditry, kidnapping, and other threats that deter investments in agriculture and industry, including the constitutional amendment to enable multi-level policing,” she said.