Ongoing security threats in Nigeria

IN early February, the Department of State Services (DSS) reported that it had arrested a recruiter for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Mr. Abdussalam Enesi Yinusa.

The individual was arrested in Kano State, where he intended to recruit Nigerian youths who would be willing to travel to the ISIS training camp in Libya. According to the report, Yunusa had already successfully recruited two other individuals and had begun making travel plans.

Meanwhile, Boko Haram has started carrying out renewed attacks in Northeast Nigeria, threatening to reverse any progress the military made in the last few months. These renewed attacks highlight the fact that regardless of the murders and destruction the group has carried out within the region, they still enjoy support among the locals.

In other words, there are some factors within the Nigerian society that keep encouraging support for terrorist networks and the country needs to implement a stronger counter-narrative as part of its national strategic communication agenda to stop this.

Counter-narrative

There was an article this week which highlighted the successes Indonesia was experiencing in its fight against terrorism and there are few lessons Nigeria can learn from them. In the early 2000s, Indonesia was dealing with several terrorist attacks in its homeland. But today, the world’s largest Muslim nation has been able to tackle the threat of terrorist attacks and maintain a low level of public support for terrorist organisations.

One of the first things that Indonesia did was to have a strong counter-narrative which was being spread by all political, religious, social, familial leaders across the country. In essence, the risks and dire consequences of terrorism are constantly being shared with members of the public. The country’s government-sponsored television and radio programs where victims and survivors of terrorist attacks were interviewed and shared their experiences.

This strategy proved effective, because a November 2015 Pew research poll indicated that about 80 percent of Indonesians held unfavorable views of ISIS, which is a much higher figure than in Malaysia, Turkey and Pakistan.

Why attacks are still happening

One of the reasons Boko Haram is still in existence and carrying out attacks today is because it still enjoys public support within areas of operation. Members of the group are made up of local family members. So for example, the military can go into a village knowing that there are Boko Haram members there. But the villagers will not identify who these individuals are because they are their brothers, uncles, nephews and so on. For this reason, military members don’t fully trust some villagers and the feelings are mutual. Another reason the villagers may not be keen to share information with the military is because troops are not with them 24/7 to provide protection from Boko Haram fighters.

For instance, if some villagers are brave enough to give the military information to patrolling troops about Boko Haram within their village, once the troops leave, Boko Haram will carry out reprisal attacks against either the individuals or the village that co-operated with the troops. It is almost easier to cooperate with Boko Haram who can attack their villages at any time, than to cooperate with the military who pop in and out occasionally.

In Dalori, for example, residents reported that despite the fact that the Army garrison was just a few miles away from their village, it took the army at about three hours to respond to the attacks, and another two hours for the first responders to receive reinforcement. The military is currently unable to provide round-the-clock protection to villages against the insurgents. One possible remedy for this is to increase the number of troops or security operatives who are able to patrol the villages as well as provide emergency response.

In Afghanistan, U.S troops switched strategies and started spending more time patrolling the local villages and helping them rid the areas of disruptive Taliban members, while ensuring socio-economic developmental plans were being instituted. This strategy worked, giving the troops a more favorable view among the villagers, who were happy to share information with the military.

The Nigerian military may currently be stretched too thin and unable to deploy more troops to patrol the region, but that is where having additional support from the police comes in.

Expanding the police counter-terrorism role

Another step Indonesia took to tackle the wave of terrorist attacks they were experiencing was to create an anti-terrorism unit apart from the military which at the time was experiencing low public support. This unit was part of a special police unit which had effective intelligence gathering capabilities and was viewed more favorably among the public.

But unfortunately, Nigeria is still dealing with “maladministration.” A case in point is a recent article that came out this week alleging that policemen on counter-insurgency operations in the north-east region had not been paid their allowances for about three months and those who had concluded their rotation had been underpaid. It will be difficult by any measure to have an effective counter-insurgency operation when individuals who are sacrificing their lives for the country are not even being compensated. The report stated that the Inspector-General of Police, Solomon Arase, is aware of this issue and is working to resolve this.

MNJTF funding issues

There is no doubt that lack of funding is having an effect on defeating the insurgency. Just this week, there were reports that the Multi-National Joint Task Force had fallen short of the funding needed to effectively combat Boko Haram in the region. Donors had pledged $250 million out of the $700 million needed to effectively combat the sect.

This lack of concerted regional counter-terrorism strategy is one of the reasons Boko Haram has been able to resume attacks in North East Nigeria and the surrounding border towns. The insurgents simply flee the country putting the most military pressure on them and seeking refuge on the other side of the border where they are able to regroup, resupply and come back across the border to carry out renewed attacks.

A couple of years back, there was a never-ending spike in sea piracy in the Western Indian Ocean, off the coast of Somalia. Nation after nation fell victim to these criminals who were taking advantage of what they thought was nobody’s territory. It wasn’t long before the international community said enough was enough, and begun cracking down on sea piracy through joint Naval operations.

Last year, 2015, there was almost no recorded sea piracy incidents at sea. This success was as a result of strategic international and regional counter-piracy efforts. The importance of a regional coordinated response cannot be overstated and until the unchecked border crossing issue is actively dealt with, we may keep seeing any efforts made by the military being reversed across the borders.

Tackling the migration threat

Recently, a truckload of individuals migrating from the troubled areas of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa arrived in Taraba, spurring
rumors that “Boko Haram” insurgents had flooded the state. The Taraba police clarified this issue saying the individuals were seeking jobs and greener pastures. Also in mid-January 2016, there were reports that 150 “Boko Haram” members were arrested in Ondo State, imparting fear among the residents. Once again the suspects denied the allegations stating that they were farmers coming to seek greener pastures in the southern part of Nigeria.

Security and government officials need to make sure they start putting strategies in place to mitigate the risks associated with these migrations. One of such risks is the possibility of real Boko Haram insurgents using this cover as a means of penetrating other parts of Nigeria and setting up decentralized sleeper cells. Therefore, the government needs to ensure there is adequate biometric data capture for these individuals, as this will make it harder for individuals to operate unnoticed.

Email: tanwa.ashiru@bulwarkintelligence.com
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