Nigeria’s inflation rate, which in August dropped to 20.12 per cent will further slide to 18 per cent in November, according to the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives, Bismark Rewane.
Rewane made the projection at the October breakfast session of the Lagos Business School (LBS), noting that there will be massive imports to meet December demand in November.
The economist, who said Nigeria’s economic recovery is authentic, as shown in the Real GDP growth of 4.23 per cent in Q2’25, a four-year high since Q2’2021 when it grew by 5.01 per cent, also warned that a ceasefire in Gaza will help push oil prices lower and hurt Nigeria’s fiscal deficit.
Nigeria is currently struggling with a heavy debt burden, with a total public debt of N152.40 trillion ($99.66 billion) as of June 30, 2025, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). This showed a quarterly increase of N3.01 trillion from the N149.39 trillion ($97.24 billion) recorded in March 2025.
The country also spent $932.1 million and N1.7 trillion servicing its external and domestic debts, respectively, in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting the country’s ongoing fiscal pressure from rising debts.
According to Rewane, “At $60 per barrel, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit could climb up to 4.5 to five per cent of GDP.” Nigeria’s 2025 budget crude oil projection was put at $75 per barrel and a crude oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, but as of Monday, October 13, crude oil price hovered around $63.60 per barrel while the country’s production output is put at 1.581 million barrels per day.
Rewane said of the 46 economic activities, 32 activities expanded, 10 slowed and four contracted with industry, which grew at 7.45 per cent, services at 3.94 per cent and agriculture, at 2.82 per cent, driving the GDP growth.
He said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria will be more cautious in November in cutting rates, projecting that a rate cut of 25 basis points in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) might be enough to keep the lid on inflation.
He also said, “With the price of gold now above $4,000 per ounce — the first time in history — Nigeria’s external reserves in gold could be in second place. The weaker the U.S. dollar, the higher the price of gold,” adding that Nigeria’s Eurobond regulation in November will be cheaper than current sales.
“The MPC will most likely cut the MPR by 25bps to 26.75 per cent per annum. The impact of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of 75 per cent on non-TSA funds will lead to further tightening in the monetary market.” He said that at 26.75 per cent yearly, the debt service burden of the Federal and state governments will fall by approximately N1.5 trillion in 2026.
On the outlook for the two months of October and November, he said sustained growth is expected as forex stability and appreciation continue. He also noted that rising travel demand driven by both business and tourism activity will boost passenger volumes in the near term. However, he said tightening U.S. visa rules could dampen international travel demand, especially from emerging markets like Nigeria.
Speaking on the impediments to growth, Rewane said the rising cost of governance is a major impediment to capital accumulation and investment in critical projects, especially when compared to the leaner government expenditure during military rule.
“For the recovery to be sustainable, there is an urgent need to reduce the cost of governance,” he said, adding that while the cost of governance in 1998 under the military was just N27.7 billion, in 2025, the cost of governance has ballooned to N54.99 trillion.
According to Rewane, to sustain the recovery, there must be power sector debt forbearance, incentives for domestic investments as well as improved tax collection under the new tax laws. He also recommended the concessioning of Airports and Seaports and the sale of government owned refineries.
