Nigeria’s recent rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the consumer price index (CPI) has sparked debate among economists, statisticians and industrialists, with some warning that manufacturing and industrial capacity remain dangerously weak.

The updated GDP figures, reviewed at a workshop jointly organised by the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Abuja, aim to capture emerging sectors better and reflect current spending patterns.

The CPI update adjusts the composition and weight of goods and services to measure inflation more accurately. Statistician General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, said the revisions aligned Nigeria’s statistical methodology with international best practice, stressing that accurate data was essential for policy design and economic planning. He noted that while the economy has expanded, the benefits have not been evenly felt, particularly at the grassroots level.

However, experts at the meeting expressed concern over the structural weaknesses the new data reveals. President of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, said the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP has slipped to about eight per cent compared with more diversified economic structures in previous decades.

Such a narrow industrial base, he argued, undermined efforts to tackle unemployment, poverty and food insecurity. He warned that frequent policy reversals, such as the repeated closure and reopening of borders, deter long-term investment and called for consistent industrial and trade strategies.

Agriculture, he added, must be integrated with research institutions to boost productivity and link more directly to manufacturing. While Inflation, which remains above 22 per cent, is also weighing heavily on households, Adenikinju cautioned that without sustained fiscal and monetary interventions, particularly in food and housing, living standards will continue to erode.

He also argued that debt-to-GDP ratios may appear healthier following the rebase, but that debt-service-to-revenue is the more pressing indicator of fiscal sustainability.

Prof. Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University pointed to a deeper decline in the industrial sector’s share of GDP, from 27 per cent to 21 per cent, citing weak productive capacity.

Drawing on United Nations benchmarks, he highlighted gaps in energy, transport, ICT, institutional quality and human capital as critical bottlenecks.

With national power generation rarely exceeding 8,000 MW, he said, Nigeria lacks the infrastructure backbone required for large-scale industrialisation.

Uwaleke noted that while investor sentiment has improved with falling sovereign bond yields and more optimistic GDP projections, the gains are unlikely to translate into sustained growth unless the country strengthens its productive base.

Speaking at the event, President of the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, Dr Hassan Mahmud, described the shrinking share of industry and manufacturing in GDP as “particularly troubling” given their potential for capital generation and sustainable revenue.

While past oil windfalls helped fund infrastructure and modernise the economy, he noted, growth remained uneven, with small-scale enterprises lacking access to opportunities and resources enjoyed by larger firms.

He called for a shift from raw commodity exports to value-added production, better integration of agriculture with manufacturing, and stronger links between research institutions and industry. Public infrastructure and technology upgrades, he stressed, are essential to make productivity gains at scale.

Managing Director, Bank of Agriculture, Ayo Sotinrin, highlighted low crop yields as a barrier to rural incomes, noting Nigeria’s average maize output is a fraction of Egypt’s. With limited returns per hectare, many farmers struggle to sustain themselves between planting cycles.

He said the bank’s nationwide branch network could be leveraged to provide farmers with targeted advice, not just seasonal credit, to boost efficiency across the food system.