Stakeholders have expressed concern that protectionist policies in developed economies are beginning to impact Africa’s trade negatively, with the continent’s exports to the United States projected to fall by 21.5 per cent.

A joint research by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) has suggested that the new United States tariffs could reduce Africa’s exports to the U.S. by up to 21.5 per cent.

Speaking to the Africa Group of ambassadors at United Nations (UN) headquarters, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Claver Gatete, said the crisis was bigger than trade volumes.

“It affects industrial jobs, regional supply chains and Africa’s voice in shaping the terms of engagement,” he said. He also expressed concern that rising debt, geopolitical instability and declining aid flows are intensifying external pressure on African economies.

He further highlighted the economic pressures facing African countries and outlined ECA’s response, from budget stabilisation and strengthened data systems to advancing regional priorities.

This, he said, is coming amid growing uncertainty for African economies, with many facing debt distress, inflation and trade disruptions driven by global policy shifts.

While real GDP across the continent is projected to grow between 2.9 and 3.6 per cent, he said over half of African countries carry public debt exceeding 60 per cent of their GDP. Seven, he said, are officially in debt distress, while 11 are considered extremely high risk.
Steep currency depreciation, inflation and widening current account deficits have deepened the strain, he noted.

“External financing is drying up, but the pressure on government budgets keeps growing. We cannot overstate the urgency of domestic resource mobilisation,” Gatete said.

He warned that Africa’s exposure to global volatility is deepening with official development assistance dropping to 2.1 per cent of GNI in 2023, down from 3.4 per cent in 2006.

Major donors, including the U.S., the United Kingdom and Germany, have announced further or total cuts, he noted. The session underscored ECA’s support in domestic taxation, debt sustainability data systems and AfCFTA implementation.

He said it is working closely with the African Union and multilateral development banks to advance reforms on special drawing rights, blended finance and the governance of the institutions.

Director of ECA’s Macroeconomics, Finance and Governance Division, Stephen Karingi, urged stronger alignment between Africa’s permanent missions in New York and Addis Ababa and the regional institutions supporting member states on the ground.

“This is a moment that demands unity of purpose and credibility of message,” he said.