Worsening forex crises, others erode foreigners’ confidence in equities

• Domestic patronage accounts for 92% of total transactions, hits N659.26b in 16yrs
• Gains in MTNN, 30 stocks lift capitalisation by N98 billion

Again, worsening foreign exchange (forex) challenges, uncertainty in the nation’s political space and monetary policy issues have continued to erode foreign investors’ confidence in the equities market as the total value of transactions executed by domestic investors on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) hits 92 per cent as of April 2023.

The figure is higher than 88 per cent of domestic investors, who participated on the exchange in the month of March.

An analysis of Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Participation in equities trading on the exchange for the month on April 2023, showed that while total domestic transactions increased by 33.35 per cent from N137.03 billion in March 2023 to N182.74 billion in April 2023, total foreign transactions decreased by 7.83 per cent from N9.19 billion (about $19.94 million) to N8.47 billion (about $18.31 million) between March 2023 and April 2023.

Total domestic transactions rose to N659.26 billion over a 16-year period, whilst total foreign transactions stood at N62.18 billion.

Also, within the same period, domestic transactions decreased by 45.30 per cent from N3.556 trillion in 2007 to N1.945 trillion in 2022 whilst foreign transactions also decreased by 38.47 per cent from N616 billion to N379 billion during the same period.

Further breakdown of the data indicated that, total transactions at the nation’s bourse as of April 30, 2023 increased by 30.77 per cent from N146.22 billion (about $317.09 million) in March 2023 to N191.21billion (about $413.25 million) in April 5 2023.

The performance of the current month when compared to the performance in April 2022 (N205.88 billion) revealed that total transactions decreased by 7.13 per cent

Also, for the domestic transactions, institutional investors outperformed retail investors by 18 per cent. Specifically, a comparison of domestic transactions in the current and prior month (March 2023) revealed that retail transactions increased by 40.43 per cent from N52.83 billion in March to N74.19 billion in April 2023.

Similarly, the institutional composition of the domestic market increased significantly by 28.92 per cent from N84.20 billion in March 2023 to N108.55 billion in April 2023.

Despite nation’s weak macro economic condition, in addition to anxiety in the political space, domestic investors continued to take position in stocks with improved earnings and high dividend payout for the 2022 full year and 2023 first quarter result.

Reacting on the development, the Chief Executive Officer of Wyoming Capital and Partners, Tajudeen Olayinka, said the factor that explains the continued absence of foreign investors participation in Nigeria’s stock market is the unresolved misalignment in aira exchange rate and possible exposure of foreign currency tagged portfolios to exchange rate risk.

According to him, the solution on the creation of a unified exchange rate regime, which would enable the law of one price to dictate the pace in the foreign exchange market.

“In other words, government should encourage orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market.“

He further expressed optimism that the fact that Nigeria’s economy will transit from a regime that tends to favour public sector domineering focus to a new regime, which is expected to encourage private sector dominance, means that ‘Nigeria will rise again.’

Meanwhile, gains recorded by MTN Nigeria (MTNN) and 30 stocks lifted investors’ fortune by N98 billion at the reopening of transactions yesterday on the NGX.

Accordingly, the All Share Index (ASI) gained by 181.20 points, representing a growth of 0.35 per cent to close at 52,369.13 points. Also, market capitalisation gained N98 billion to close at N28.515 trillion.

The upturn was impacted by gains recorded in medium and large capitalised stocks, amongst which are; MTN Nigeria Communications (MTNN), PZ Cussons Nigeria, Nigerian Exchange Group, Julius Berger and Zenith Bank.

This week, United Capital Plc expected mixed sentiments in the equities market, comprising of pockets of buy interests across fundamentally sound stocks, and bearish sentiments arising from an upward reversal of yields in the fixed-income market.

“We recommend a cautious approach for Equity vested investors and fund managers, with a strategic switch to defensive stocks with strong corporate actions and fundamentals,” United Capital added.

As measured by market breadth, market sentiment was positive, as 31 stocks gained relative to 15 losers. Ikeja Hotels recorded the highest price gain of 9.85 per cent to close at N2.23, per share. Academy Press followed with a gain of 9.80 per cent to close at N1.68, while Prestige Assurance rose by 9.76 per cent to close at 45 kobo, per share.

NPF Microfinance Bank went up by 9.71 per cent to close at N1.92, while C&I Leasing appreciated by 9.69 per cent to close at N3.51, per share. On the other hand, NCR Nigeria led the losers’ chart by 9.71 per cent, to close at N2.79, per share. Sovereign Trust Insurance followed with a decline of 8.89 per cent to close at 41 kobo, while Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals declined by 7.33 per cent to close at N1.39, per share.

Ardova Plc (AP) depreciated by 6.95 per cent to close at N18.75, while Royal Exchange declined by 5.77 per cent to close at 49 kobo, per share.

The total volume traded declined by 61.1 per cent to 315.69 million units, valued at N4.03 billion, and exchanged in 5,847 deals. Transactions in the shares of Zenith Bank topped the activity chart with 53.434 million shares valued at N1.381 billion. Access Holdings followed with 48.034 million shares worth N486.3 million, while United Bank for Africa (UBA) traded 31.111 million shares valued at N261.962 million.

AXA Mansard Insurance traded 23.556 million shares valued at N74.362 million, while Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) sold 20.12 million shares worth N541.038 million.