The End Malaria in Nigeria campaign has faulted the Lagos State government over its recent claim that malaria has declined significantly statewide.
The group raised concern following a statement by the Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, who described malaria as a “rare disease” during the Global Pest Management Conference held recently in Lagos.

Abayomi asserted that most fever cases in Lagos were no longer caused by malaria but by other health issues. He stated that malaria prevalence in the state had dropped to just one per cent.

His remarks, delivered before a hall filled with environmental health and pest control professionals, have since sparked criticism and pushback from campaigners.

The convener of End Malaria in Nigeria, Francis Nwapa, described the commissioner’s claim as worrisome and misleading, warning that it could misrepresent the true burden of malaria in Lagos to both citizens and the global community.

He said the statement distorts ongoing realities and could undermine efforts to address the environmental and infrastructural factors still driving malaria transmission in the state.

Nwapa challenged the claim and posed several questions to the commissioner, including what data the state relied on to reach its conclusion and whether conditions that encourage mosquito breeding had truly been eliminated.

He questioned if Lagos had reconstructed its drainage and canal systems, created centralised wastewater recycling facilities, or put a stop to the open dumping of refuse in areas like Ojota and Igando. He also asked if healthcare had become affordable enough that residents no longer self-medicate but instead visit public health facilities where accurate malaria data can be gathered.

Further, Nwapa inquired whether the government had deployed genetically modified mosquitoes designed to curb malaria transmission by targeting female offspring, or if mosquitoes had somehow ceased to be the disease vector. He warned that such claims could be used to impress donors and development partners by portraying an exaggerated level of progress, even when key environmental challenges remain unaddressed.

Expressing disappointment over the lack of scrutiny from other professionals at the event, Nwapa noted that the commissioner’s statement was met with sycophantic applause rather than evidence-based questioning. He cautioned that silence in the face of questionable narratives from authorities could sabotage national efforts to end malaria.

He called on environmental health professionals to uphold their responsibility to challenge inaccuracies and ensure that public health campaigns are rooted in truth and accountability.

Also, a public health consultant and general physician, Dr Joseph Ekiyor, raised doubts over the state’s claim of a decline in malaria prevalence, urging authorities to back their statements with credible and verifiable data.

Ekiyor told The Guardian that the prevalence rate of any disease is typically expressed either as a percentage or as the number of cases per a given population size.

Usually per 1,000 or 100,000 people. He said if the government now claims that malaria prevalence in Lagos has dropped from 15 per cent to 1.3 per cent, this translates to only 13 cases per 1,000 people.

“It sounds unrealistic to believe that out of every 1,000 people, only 13 have malaria, especially in a state like Lagos where malaria has long been a major health challenge,” he said.

He stressed that public health assertions must be backed by hard evidence and not sentiments. “We need to see the data and the source. If you’re saying it’s 1.3 per cent, then show us the evidence.”

Ekiyor also examined the factors that Lagos authorities have reportedly cited for the drop in prevalence, such as increased use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), improved treatment, and immunisation efforts.

He argued that improved diagnostic capabilities, while beneficial for identifying and treating more cases, would likely result in higher, not lower, recorded prevalence rates. “If more people are being tested accurately, then logically, you’ll detect more cases. So, improved diagnosis should increase the number of identified cases, not decrease them,” he explained.