TODAY’S Governorship/State House of Assembly elections across most states of the federation, are expected to be mainly between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The extent to which the outcome of the March 28 Presidential/National Assembly elections would affect these elections remains debatable. In a country where most politicians who are used to been in power shift platform at the slight opportunity after losing election, the gale of defections to both parties, especially from PDP to APC, could impact heavily on today’s elections. Currently, PDP controls 21 of the 36 states in the country: Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Kaduna, Ekiti and Ondo.

But the governorship elections are not holding in Bayelsa, Kogi, Ekiti and Ondo states, even though there will be polls for the Houses of Assembly.

PDP’s National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Mu’azu, despite not delivering his home state, Bauchi, in the last elections, has boasted that the party would win 24 states in today’s polls, including Lagos, Rivers and Imo, now under the control of APC, describing PDP governorship candidates there as “first class materials.”

The APC currently controls 15 states- Borno; Edo; Imo; Kano; Kebbi; Kwara; Lagos; Nasarawa; Ogun; Osun; Oyo; Rivers; Sokoto; Yobe; and Zamfara. Of this number, today’s governorship elections are not holding Edo and Osun, but the Assembly polls will hold. Even in the states where the governorship elections are not holding, the stakes remain very high, as the incumbent governors battle to retain majority of the seats in the Assembly so as to have a smooth sail when it comes to approvals and confirmations of policies and appointees.

Every governor knows the headache in having the opposition in control at the legislature, with the case of Ekiti still fresh in memory. And even where the governor’s party controls the majority seats, two-thirds majority makes it safer.

To many electorate, the Presidential/National Assembly elections were “their own” and today’s polls “our own;” hence they would be keenly contested. For most governors, especially in PDP-controlled states, it is a fight for their political lives, more so for those who could not deliver at the earlier polls. States To Watch TODAY’S elections would be fiercely contested in Lagos, Rivers, Oyo, Ekiti (Assembly), Nasarawa, Kwara, Sokoto, Imo, Abia, Niger, Nasarawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Benue, Bauchi and Taraba states for sundry reasons. And taking cognisance of this, the Nigeria Police has beefed up security in states and areas where trouble/violence could break out as a result of rising tensions there.

In Lagos, the narrow margin with which the APC beat PDP in the presidential election has made the race open to any of them. This is more so following the controversial threat by Oba Rilwan Akiolu of Lagos (which has been clarified) to the Igbo if they vote for a particular candidate. It is uncertain how that would affect the voter turnout and outcome of the polls. But it might still a different ball game today, especially with the rising national profile of APC.

The case of Rivers is volatile and could become explosive if the outcome goes either way to PDP or APC. Already, the atmosphere has been charged and apprehension felt everywhere. Some party faithful on all sides fear low turnout due to threats and intimidation of opponents. Imo is another state to watch, and it could go to any of PDP, APC or the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA).

Nasarawa, despite the outcome of the last election, could go the way of APC, as PDP and APGA are likely to split the votes of the opposition. Kaduna would be fierce too, as APC battles a combined force of Vice President and the governor over the seat of power. In the other states, it will be a straight fight between APC and PDP.

The security agencies/agent remain red alert for any breach of public peace and order before, during and after the polls to forestall any outbreak of violence by the losing side(s). Already, there is restriction of movements during polling exercise and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has insisted that there will be no manual accreditation of voters, as only the card reader will be used throughout the elections.