French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a critical showdown in the European elections against the far right, battling to close the gap on the forces of his rival Marine Le Pen who are well ahead in opinion polls three months ahead of the ballot.
Macron has in the last weeks sought to play winning cards, notably emphasising the importance of defeating Russia in its war against Ukraine and presiding over the enshrinement of the right to abortion in the French constitution, a world first.
Second place in the June elections would be a major embarrassment for Macron, who throughout his almost seven years in office has presented himself as a bulwark against the far right as more radical forces gained ground elsewhere in Europe.
Defeating Macron’s centrist alliance would also give Le Pen new momentum as she prepares for her fourth campaign to take the French presidency in 2027, with the Elysee Palace now closer than ever to her grasp.
While Macron is not allowed to stand again for a third consecutive term in 2027 he is well aware a Le Pen victory would wreck his legacy as a reformist champion of Europe.
According to an Elabe poll published by the La Tribune newspaper Sunday, the National Rally (RN) of Le Pen is set to win 29.5 percent of votes with Macron’s centrist alliance led by his Renaissance ruling party well behind on 17 percent.
In line with the extremely fractured nature of French politics since Macron came to power in 2017, no other party is set to get above 10 percent of the vote, according to the poll.
‘Real defeat’
Thierry Chopin, a special advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute, described the ballot as “midterm elections” for Macron with opinion polls predicting a “significant gap” between his forces and the far right.
“If the predicted gap translates into reality, it would be a real defeat for the presidential camp, especially after seven years in power where the European question was placed at the heart of the political DNA of the Renaissance movement and the agenda of the president,” he told AFP.
The RN’s list for the elections is not led by Le Pen but her youthful protege Jordan Bardella, just 28, who has already succeeded the veteran campaigner as party leader and won new followers with his slick videos on social media.
According to an Elabe poll published last week, Bardella has leap-frogged Le Pen in the national popularity stakes and is France’s second most popular politician after Edouard Philippe, the former premier who is favourite to take on the centrist mantle of Macron for the 2027 campaign.
While the RN no longer advocates France’s exit from the EU, Bardella adopted a strident tone against the bloc at his party’s campaign launch in Marseille last weekend, saying it and French leaders had “worked hand-in-hand for the great wiping away of France”.
Seeking to counter youth with youth, the Elysee has deployed the until now little-known European parliament MP Valerie Hayer, 37, to lead the ruling coalition’s list for the EU Parliament contest.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, 34, appointed earlier this year as France’s youngest-ever head of government, has made clear he plans to be an attack dog against the far right, tearing into Bardella, Le Pen and the RN.
‘Confront contradictions’
Attal caused a storm in parliament by questioning if “troops of (Russian President) Vladimir Putin were not already in our country”, in reference to past Le Pen links with Moscow that included a party loan from a Russian bank that it has now paid back.
He went further at the launch of the campaign of Macron’s centrist forces in Lille on Saturday, saying that while the RN “have always said ‘no’ to Europe… the only difference now is that they are hiding it a little and the ‘no’ has turned into a ‘nyet’ (‘no’ in Russian).”
Hayer said her camp’s responsibility was to thwart “this worst-case scenario” with voters facing a choice to “strengthen our Europe or give up in the face of those who want to tear it down”.
Macron has thrust Ukraine to the top of the political agenda by not ruling out the deployment of Western ground troops and urging allies not to be “cowards” in the conflict.
Bardella meanwhile told Macron at a meeting of party leaders at the Elysee on Thursday that it was “irresponsible” to compare the RN to “a foreign occupying army”.
Chopin said the presidential camp appeared intent on forcing the RN to “confront its own contradictions” on the issue of relations with Putin, acknowledging that this was a “risky bet” at a time when public support for Ukraine in Europe risks eroding.
He said he was struck by the “absence of a clear political message” from Macron’s camp and there was a “real risk that it will only be reacting to the RN”.
