Saturday, December 29, 2023, made it exactly seven months into Governor Seyi Makinde’s second term in office. He is the second governor in Oyo State to break the second term jinx after the immediate past governor, Abiola Ajimobi, set the pace in 2015.

But the second term jinx of Governor Makinde came with a difference. While the late Ajimobi rode on the bandwagon effects of the 2015 merger of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which swept through the Southwest zone, the incumbent governor, using the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform, achieved the same feat on March 18, 2023, independently and not on any bandwagon effect or federal might.

Makinde’s personality and popularity swayed the votes of Oyo State in favour of President Bola Tinubu during the February 25, 2023 presidential election, to the disadvantage of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the presidential flag bearer of his party, PDP, just as he also swayed the vote to his side during the governorship poll.

While President Tinubu won in all the 33 local councils in Oyo, the APC also won all the three senatorial seats and considerable seats in the House of Representatives. But in what painted him as a master of the game, Makinde remarkably and single-handedly turned the table around on March 18 when he defeated the gubernatorial candidates of APC and Accord Party, Teslim Folarin and Adebayo Adelabu respectively; and others.

Contrary to the phobia that the victory of President Tinubu and APC in the presidential and National Assembly elections would create a bandwagon effect against Makinde, the incumbent defeated his opponents in 31 local councils, just as his party, the PDP, also claimed all the state Assembly seats.

The governor won his re-election without the support of major PDP stakeholders in Oyo State, especially those who vilified him and the G-5 governors for opposing their party’s presidential candidate, Atiku, because of their conviction that the North could not produce another president after former president Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in power.

Makinde could also be commended for having also won his second term without the support of the likes of Rashidi Ladoja, a one-time PDP governor of the state and popular high chief of Ibadan.

Recall that before the 2023 general election, Makinde allegedly deprived the immediate past lawmaker of Oyo South, Senator Kola Balogun, the junior brother of Oba Lekan Balogun, the nomination ticket of PDP. He rather supported Joseph Tegbe, who defected from APC to PDP following the controversial manner the APC gubernatorial primary was won by Folarin although PDP eventually lost the seat to APC.

Initially, many observers were apprehensive that Makinde’s failure to allow Senator Balogun take the return ticket of PDP South Senatorial seat would pit him against the Olubadan of Ibadan land, Oba Lekan Balogun and the traditional council of Ibadan. This was against the backdrop of the fact that a similar development brought the late Ajimobi down politically. Contrary was the outcome on March 18 when Makinde won overwhelmingly.

If the last gubernatorial election in Oyo State is to be evaluated, it could be said that Makinde is, perhaps, the only governor of Oyo who had won his re-election based on personal popularity and acceptance among the electorate. He was not at peace with the PDP national headquarters, just as critical stakeholders of Oyo PDP distanced themselves from his re-election ambition. Not even the late former governor Bola Ige and or Ladoja recorded such political height. The late Ajimobi was also popular but he was not in the class of the incumbent governor as the last gubernatorial poll indicated.

Again, Makinde demonstrated his grip and control of Oyo politics not long after he was sworn in for a second term on May 29. This reflected in the way he handled the case of the former Chairman, Park Management System (PMS) in the state, Alhaji Mukaila Lamidi, aka Auxiliary, who many commentators opined was being encouraged by the governor to perpetrate crisis in order to intimidate the opposition.

Before the polls, there were concerns that Auxiliary and his gang, who had been labeled as terrorising Ibadan, with the alleged backing of the government, would become more ferocious during Makinde’s second term. But nobody imagined that the same government would silence Auxiliary sooner than later. Acts of violence in most Oyo motor parks have consequently died down since.

Even the opposition parties who at various times feasted on the negative impacts and activities of Auxiliary to campaign against Makinde during the elections have nothing to say any longer.

For the first time in Oyo politics, voices of opposition parties were silenced with nobody bothering to challenge Makinde’s electoral victory in court, including the APC. Some referred to Makinde as the mayor of Oyo politics, while in some quarters he is seen as the face of Oyo politics. The governor is so powerful that his words are orders even within the ruling PDP, which now functions at his dictum. An inside source said, “There is no Oyo chapter of PDP. Everything centres round the governor. It has never been like this before where the influence of one man cuts across party politics.

“As of now, Governor Makinde appears to be closer to the APC-controlled Presidency more than the APC stakeholders in Oyo.”

The voices of some notable stakeholders and personalities of the Oyo PDP, like Elder Wole Oyelese, a former minister; former deputy governor, Hazeem Gbolarunmi; former minister, Jumoke Akinjide and others are no longer heard.

With the development, it might take another three years for personalities like Ladoja to make impact in the state politics considering the faceoff he allegedly had with Makinde in the last general polls.

A report recently described the incumbent governor as the Lionel Messi of modern day politics in Oyo State. The report also likened him to the biblical David, the giant killer in Oyo state politics, going by the outcome of the last gubernatorial and the House of Assembly elections in the Pace Setters state.

Prior to the elections, Makinde boasted during a radio programme that he and his party, PDP would record 100 per cent victory, a kind of comment that can hardly be attributed to any of his predecessors, especially considering the nature of Oyo politics. But the governor said it and achieved it.

The Oyo State governor has also demonstrated uncommon traits in office going by the ways and manner he freely relates and receives other governors across political divides.

Can Adelabu Turn The Table Against Makinde
WILL the December 15, 2023 defection of the Minister of Power, Adelabu, from Accord Party to APC turn the table against Makinde? This is one question in the minds of political analysts. Although many APC members who were eyeing the ministerial slot as a compensation for their efforts in the victory of President Tinubu were disappointed, they belief that Adelabu can turn their fortunes around if he is positioned to contest against whoever Makinde chooses to present on the PDP platform in 2027.

But other stakeholders are not looking at it that way. They argue that the incumbent Power Minister does not have the political stamina to either win Oyo gubernatorial race or revive the ailing APC.

Speaking with The Guardian, a Southwest chieftain of New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP), Alhaji Bisi Olopoeyan, said: “It is impossible for Adelabu to outshine Governor Makinde in Oyo politics unless there is a consensus.”

Olopoeyan, who used to be a member of PDP and one of the products of Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu’s politics, fell out with Makinde and left the party to join NNPP after the 2019 governorship poll. He was at loggerheads with the governor and one of his ardent critics in the last four years. Suddenly, before the last election, Olopoeyan reconciled with the Makinde and relaxed his critical posture.

He dismissed the perception that Makinde has become the emperor of Oyo politics based on the outcome of the last governorship poll and how the opposition parties became unusually silent since May 29.

According to him, “any opposition party, especially APC in Oyo that is criticising Makinde’s policies now is wasting its time and energy.”

He added: “The people will not just listen to such a party because the Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration of APC is also not making life easy for Nigerians at the federal level. That is why it looks as if there is no opposition. The opposition politicians are not finding life easy not to begin antagonising any state government. Majority of the gubernatorial candidates of other parties later worked underneath for Makinde while some collapsed their structure into his.

“If we must blame Makinde, we should also ask what the three senators and 12 House of Representatives members of APC are giving back to their various constituencies and even their party members. This does not exclude Adelabu, Zaccheus Adedeji, the chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service and others who got federal appointments. What did they give back to Oyo State during the palliative period?”

Olopoeyan said those who lost elections like Folarin can be excused because they lost. “But what about those that won and those that got appointments. Makinde is a governor, fine but the young man has always proved that he is with and for the people. That is the reason he looks like the emperor of Oyo politics but he is not. If Oyo politicians are not careful, Makinde will be the first to break the third term jinx by determining his successor in 2027. I cannot say of tomorrow or before 2027 but with the way things are today, Makinde stands far above every other politician in Oyo politics,” he submitted.

He noted that as for those living in fools’ paradise, Adelabu would prove nothing beyond what he scored under the platform of Accord in the last governorship election.

“Makinde polled 563,756 and won in 31 of the 33 local governments, which was his actual political strength in Oyo.

“Despite the fact that Folarin did not get total support of APC members in Oyo and that the Presidency didn’t look at him, he managed to poll 256,686, which can be attributed as his original votes and a test of his popularity as compared to Adelabu, who polled 38,357 on the platform of Accord.

“The over 300, 000 Adelabu polled in 2019 was because of Ajimobi’s influence. The minister will still struggle to get an APC gubernatorial ticket in 2027 if at all he is going to get it because there are other interested politicians in the party,” Olopoeyan said.

He said that what Makinde needs to do is to settle down and focus on serious infrastructure development in Oyo within the next three and a half years.

He also said President Tinubu may not have the time to support the ambition of any individual because the former governor of Lagos State will be busy looking for a second term, which he won’t find easy.