Pressure for second referendum mounts in UK

• Petitioners collect 3.3 million signatures
• Concerns over Nigeria’s future trade with Britain, EU

Pettioners yesterday said that European Union’s (EU) rules were triggering moves for a second referendum, after United Kingdom (UK) voters forced the country’s exit from the union.

Electronic documents made available to The Guardian yesterday showed that about 3.3 million young Britons have signed the petition so far.The ongoing movement is anchored on what the petitioners say are EU’s existing protocol on referendum.

“We the undersigned call upon Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60 per cent based on a turnout less than 75 per cent there should be another referendum,” the protesters said in an online document sent to the Petitions Department of the UK Parliament.

According to them, Parliament will consider this for a debate, because “Parliament considers all petitions that get more than 100,000 signatures for a debate,” and the government would respond because “Government responds to all petitions that get more than 10,000 signatures.”

Led by William Oliver Healy, they said they were waiting for two days, the expiration of which is today (Monday), for a debate date. Political scientist, Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi, who was Nigeria’s Minister for External Affairs between 1985 and 1987, said the EU rules on referendum has a window for repeat if less than 75 per cent of registered voters participated in a referendum, as was the case with last Thursday’s exercise.As of Saturday night, the petitioners had secured 3,289,937 signatures.

Meanwhile, following the exit, there are growing concerns in Nigeria and other African countries on the future of bilateral relations with the trading partners.

Although, the UK is not Nigeria’s biggest trading partner, even in Europe, there are concerns that, like other countries, Nigeria might also experience a reduction in trade with Britain, as trade between the two countries dropped to below £8 billion while expectations to achieve a trade volume by £15 billion may be affected by the new decision.

While negotiations are expected to commence on the exit plan of the UK from the EU, stakeholders in Nigeria note that there is no cause for alarm for Nigeria in the short term as the UK and the EU have two years to figure out the terms of the exit, adding that the exit might mean investors looking at emerging markets like Nigeria for investments.

Also, a contracting UK economy will have a deep impact on aid programmes to Nigeria, especially the Department for International Development (DFID) interventions, which have been a burning political issue in the UK.

Britain’s exit from the EU, dubbed “Brexit,” has shocked the global economy, causing the value of the pound to plummet to its lowest rate in over 30 years on Friday while an economic consensus suggests that the UK will fall into a recession, the effects of which will have global implications, including many African nations engaged with trade and immigration to Europe.

President of the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC), Prince Dapo Adelegan in a chat with The Guardian, said that the UK’s decision to end its relationship with the EU has more implications for the UK than Nigeria, adding that the decision will affect Britain’s economy and competitiveness while aiding investments in Nigeria’s financial markets.

The Counsellor and Head of Trade and Economics Section of EU, Filippo Amato noted that it is too early to comment on Brexit as there were no repercussions yet in terms of bilateral ties on the decision by Britain.

Indeed, the vote within the UK highlighted deep divisions. With the exception of London, England voted massively to leave the EU. Scotland, which only a year ago, voted by a thin margin to remain in the UK, voted by almost 2 to 1 to remain in the EU. Wales voted to leave, while Northern Ireland voted to remain. These divisions have already had an immediate impact as politicians in both Scotland and Northern Ireland have begun to take positions regarding the continued stay of their countries in the UK.

According to SB Morgen Intelligence report, there is going to be volatility as the UK eventually comes to terms with being a smaller economy.“With the decrease in the size of its economy, and possibly reach of its economy, Westminster will have to find other forms of revenue. It will either have to raise taxes, or cut its budget, neither decision will be taken lightly, and either one taken, will feed into the political mood in the UK home countries.

“In the short term, being our former imperial rulers, the UK has been one of Nigeria’s traditional trading partners, and because of a shared language, has remained a destination of choice for most Nigerians. Our elite are deeply ingrained in the UK, and have bought into that country very deeply. With a population of 201,184 according to the 2011 Census, the UK is home to one of the largest concentrations of Nigerians outside Nigeria. Issuance of visas to Nigerians may take a hit as immigration was one of the key issues in the Brexit vote.

“As a destination for Nigerian exports, the UK at $5.21 billion comes fourth behind Spain ($9.7 billion), the Netherlands ($5.59 billion) and France ($5.48 billion).As a source for Nigerian imports, the UK at $2.28 billion, comes third behind the Netherlands ($3.4 billion) and Belgium ($2.59 billion).

These realities, and the UK’s diminished status, have to be taken into account in the renegotiation of trade agreements that are sure to come, the report stated.

The Senate Committee on Tertiary Institution and Tertiary Education Trust Fund, according to Euromonitor International noted that Nigeria currently spends over $2 billion yearly as capital flight on education abroad; with the UK chalking up the lion share of those education dollars as 66 per cent of Nigerian foreign students attend universities in the UK.

Nigerians received a total of $3.7 billion from relatives residing in the UK in remittances in 2015 according to the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development, second only to the United States.