If the plan to conduct population census in November this year is really for the national interest and not a ploy to waste public funds, the exercise should not be contemplated now because the country is not safe for it.
Across the world, sensitive exercises like population census are conducted under a peaceful atmosphere, with focus and concern on the credibility of the outcome for proper national planning and development.
Government or the National Population Commission (NPC) cannot feign ignorance of the fact that insecurity, being manifested in terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, ethnic killings, herders attack on farmers and armed robbery among others is rife and has made the country not conducive for a credible headcount.
Peace and a cordial environment are critical factors in determining whether or not to conduct a headcount, if the outcome will be generally acceptable. Any government or public official or institution pushing for a census at this time of high level of insecurity and harsh economic conditions under which Nigerians are reeling will need to explain his/her motive.
Before the nation witnesses another episode of wastage of national resources, it is wise that the census be postponed till when peace is sufficiently restored for the headcount to take place at every nook and cranny of Nigeria without innocent citizens losing their lives and property.
The Senate recently said the population and housing census slated for November this year would take place as scheduled. Chairman, Senate Committee on National Identity and Population, Abdul Ningi gave the assurance in Abuja during the screening of 17 out of the 19 commissioner nominees for the National Population Commission (NPC).
Nigeria has been working on population projections in the last few years, as the last census was conducted in 2006 by the NPC, which gave a population figure of 140 million.
The immediate past administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari planned to conduct another census in 2022, but the programme was later moved to 2023 before it was suspended indefinitely, again following public outcry that the country was unsafe, and the proposed census was too close to the general elections. Although President Bola Tinubu has pledged his administration’s support for the next census, asserting its importance in national planning, the counting can only take place in an atmosphere of conviviality, not the tension-soaked one prevailing now in many parts of the country.
Across the country, travel and movement of goods, especially by road and rail is being seriously threatened by the high level of insecurity manifesting in unjust and unprovoked killing and kidnapping of innocent citizens by terrorists of Boko Haram, ISWAP and other sinister groups in different states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
At a joint conference in Abuja in January, civil society groups under the aegis of Civil Society Joint Action Group, revealed in a report that 2,423 persons had been killed and 1, 872 others had been abducted in the eight months of President Bola Tinubu in office.
The Executive Director, Civil Society Legislative and Advocacy Centre, Auwal Rafsanjani, who spoke on behalf of the coalition of 50 groups, lamented that insecurity had persisted over the last three administrations. He said 24,816 innocent Nigerians were killed and 15, 579 others were abducted during the administration of the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari between 2015 and 2023.
In recent times, the terrorists have become more daring, planting Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) on roads and shooting at moving vehicles in their desperation to either kill travellers or kidnap them for ransom. In this situation, it will be difficult to safely deploy men and census materials to every part of the country. One of the fears is that census officials who are afraid of being killed or kidnapped may not visit some enumeration areas but may falsify figures for submission to the NPC.
There is also a concern about many families that have been displaced from their places of abode as well as those who are now taking refuge in bushes or are currently in the captivity of terrorists and kidnappers in different parts of the country. Many Nigerians, especially in the northern part of the country have fled from terrorists’ frequent attacks to safety in some neighbouring countries, hoping to return to Nigeria when the security situation improves.
As safety of life and property remains elusive in the northern part of the country, these people may not be available during enumeration but return later to render the figures unacceptable and unreliable.
The current hardship in the country induced by the high cost of living and the high level of corruption may also affect the credibility of the headcount or make it prone to fraud. This is apart from the subsisting economic, political and demographic interests that tend to corrupt the census process in Nigeria, leading to rejection of the figures in some regions and states.
If the government had properly evaluated the reasons for dispute and rejection of the outcome of previous headcounts (1962, 1963, 1973, 1991 and 2006), it would have discovered that it was because the exercises were replete with anomalies and controversies caused by manipulation and falsification of figures. These cases of fraud are more likely to be perpetrated freely in an environment that is devoid of security and peace.
Already some states have started claiming figures for their population and giving signals that they may reject anything different from what they have projected for their domains. The stakes will continue to be high so long as population is the basis for revenue allocation in Nigeria. Any region or state where people could not be counted due to insecurity may reject whatever figure given to it; and if the outcome is rejected by many states, the census is doomed after spending billions of naira.
In its recommendation that the census be conducted every 10 years, the United Nations clearly does not envisage that it will be done at a time of suffocating insecurity in any country. To avoid controversy and possible national crisis that may erupt as a consequence of population census that is marred by anomalies and controversies, the government should hold off the exercise slated to hold in November this year until the country is safe for it.
