The commissioning of the Dangote Refinery (DR) is not merely another industrial project; it marks a historic turning point in Nigeria’s petroleum downstream sector. It signals a paradigm shift that has disrupted entrenched business models and unsettled key players such as the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Petroleum Tanker Drivers (NUPENG), Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), and others.
Dangote Refinery’s operational model—especially its direct distribution package to registered filling stations—has rewritten the rules of petroleum product marketing in Nigeria. By bypassing traditional middlemen structures, it has created efficiencies that render some established actors less relevant. This disruption is comparable to the entry of ride-hailing services like Uber and Bolt, which redefined the taxi industry in Lagos. DR has fundamentally altered the downstream space, and stakeholders must adapt or be left behind.
DAPPMAN, in particular, must acknowledge that the era of easy profit from product importation is over. The historic gains of the importation era cannot be replicated in a reality where local refining and direct-to-market strategies dominate. Attempts to cling to outdated models—or worse, to impose unsustainable financial demands of over N1.5 trillion annually on DR—are illogical and counterproductive. Such demands suffocate innovation and further burden Nigerians already struggling under economic hardship.
The industry must instead embrace strategic renewal. Stakeholders need to reassess their operations, cost structures, and value propositions. They must shift from rent-seeking and entitlement-driven behaviour to innovation and value-adding services that align with the national interest. Sustainability now lies in logistics improvements, last-mile efficiency, consumer trust, and technology-driven transparency. For DAPPMAN and others, this is a wake-up call to contribute patriotically to Nigeria’s energy security rather than obstruct progress.
While DR has secured enormous market advantage through clever structuring, it must also shoulder national responsibility. Nigerians have placed immense confidence in the refinery as a solution to decades of inefficiency, scarcity, and exploitation. That trust must not be betrayed. Transparency in pricing, fairness in distribution, compliance with global environmental standards, and strong corporate responsibility are essential if DR is to maintain legitimacy and public confidence.
The downstream reality has changed irreversibly. Nigerians have embraced the shift, and all stakeholders must reinvent themselves to remain relevant. NUPENG, for example, has historically relied on dues, levies, and industrial actions to assert its relevance. But in this new environment, it must reposition by investing in welfare-enhancing ventures such as housing schemes, cooperative banks, healthcare services, and transport businesses. It must also upskill its workforce, sponsoring training and certifications for emerging roles in refinery operations, petrochemicals, and logistics technology.
Beyond this, it should establish a pension and investment fund that guarantees members’ long-term security and reduces dependence on confrontational, rent-seeking strategies.
Similarly, IPMAN and PETROAN must embrace innovation to remain viable in the era of direct-to-station distribution. They should digitise retail operations with apps for consumer engagement, real-time pricing, and delivery services. They must diversify into LPG, CNG, and renewables, transforming filling stations into multi-energy hubs. Above all, they must build consumer trust through service quality, accurate calibration, and operational transparency.
DAPPMAN and MEMAN must also evolve. They cannot continue as gatekeepers in an era that demands facilitators of efficiency, technology adoption, and service quality. Having amassed significant wealth during the importation era, they must now reinvest those resources into transformative projects. They should build modular refineries to complement DR’s capacity and strengthen Nigeria’s refining independence.
They should acquire and rehabilitate government-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, which have suffered from years of mismanagement. They should also diversify into petrochemicals to secure new revenue streams and long-term sustainability. By doing so, they will not only protect their relevance but also strengthen Nigeria’s refining ecosystem, reducing overdependence on a single mega-refinery.
The only viable option for all players is to re-strategise for sustainability and growth. Resistance, outdated practices, and entitlement will only hasten irrelevance. This is the dawn of a new era in Nigeria’s petroleum downstream sector, one where innovation, patriotism, and ethical practices will determine survival. Stakeholders must seize this moment to reposition themselves, not merely for profitability, but for the greater good of Nigeria and Nigerians.
Prof. Enikanselu retired, wrote from Lagos.
