In the build-up to the 2027 elections, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is moving deftly to the drumbeat of real opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and its struggling Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) archrival in the South-West region. Some stakeholders are taking the ADC threats seriously, KEHINDE OLATUNJI, AYODELE AFOLABI, ROTIMI AGBOLUAJE, AZEEZ OLORUNLOMERU, ADEWALE MOMOH, and OLUWOLE IGE report.

In the beginning, the battle for the soul of South-West was waged between PDP, the former ruling party and the dominant opposition progressive movement that has mutated from Alliance for Democracy (AD) through Action Congress (AC) to the current ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
  
Now, there are signs that a third force has emerged to alter the two-sided melee. At a time that PDP seems to have become battle weary, while the ruling APC, led by a homeboy, President Bola Tinubu, is seen as consolidating its hold on the entire South, the ADC is positioning itself as the major battle axe of the opposition in the build-up to the 2027 general elections.
 
Watchers of Nigerian politics are wondering whether the opposition collaboration on ADC can genuinely stand a chance against the APC in the South-West. However, with the calibre of politicians congregating on the repackaged platform to challenge Tinubu’s re-election bid, some observers claim that it would amount to political suicide for anybody to dismiss the party as politically inconsequential.
 
A peep into the ADC war room shows such towering figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; interim national chairman and erstwhile Senate President David Mark; immediate past Minister of Interior Rauf Aregbesola (National Secretary); former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi; former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai; Bolaji Abdullahi; and others whose shared goal is to stop Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.
 
The popular perception in the polity is that the South-West stands out as the most politically vibrant region in Nigeria, especially having produced, not only the current president, but also boasting of a legacy of assertive political movements that have shaped national politics.
  
Some of these impactful political groupings range from the Action Group (AG) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in the first and second Republics. The region’s political culture, anchored on liberal ideological leanings, parades charismatic leadership and entrenched party structures. These elements have historically made it difficult for smaller parties to break through, just as well-funded alternatives have struggled in past election cycles.
 
However, analysts believe 2027 could bring a different dynamic. Economic hardship, the lingering effects of fuel subsidy removal, and internal crises within both the APC and PDP have created openings for a “third force”, a space the ADC seems eager to occupy.
 
Although not new to Nigeria’s political scene, having been registered in 2006, the ADC has gone through several rebranding phases, presenting itself as a platform for progressive politics, youth engagement, and inclusivity. While its best performances were in the Southeast and parts of the North-Central, it has some history in the Southwest.
 
In 2018, the party gained prominence when former President Olusegun Obasanjo, through his now-defunct Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), endorsed it as a vehicle for change. That momentum faded before the 2019 polls, but it gave the ADC visibility and an organisational footprint in Ogun, Oyo, and Ondo States.
 
The ADC’s most notable South-West showing came in Oyo State, where it won a few House of Assembly seats in 2019 and played a key role in the coalition that helped Governor Seyi Makinde of the PDP secure victory. Beyond these flashes, however, the party has struggled to maintain a consistent winning structure in the region.
 
Party insiders say the current push in the Southwest is more deliberate. Former National Chairman Ralph Okey Nwosu told The Guardian the party is done playing a “supporting role” in Nigerian politics and now aims to be a coalition-builder offering a credible alternative to voters disillusioned by the APC-PDP duopoly.
 
According to him, poverty, insecurity, decrepit infrastructure, and unemployment, which successive governments have failed to address, affect the Southwest as much as other regions. “What the ADC wants is to return hope and a good life to Nigerians,” he said.
 
A central part of this strategy is ongoing merger talks with smaller parties and independent movements. Nwosu said the ADC is in advanced discussions with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Labour Party (LP) breakaway factions, and grassroots associations in the Southwest. The goal is to create a broad political platform by the end of 2025 to allow for joint mobilisation before the election cycle peaks.
 
In Lagos, the ADC has taken a combative stance against APC dominance, pledging to “reorient voters” and end what it calls the ruling party’s intimidation of non-indigenes. At a recent meeting, it passed a vote of confidence in Aregbesola, coalition leader Rahman Owokoniran, and state chairman George Ashiru, vowing to make opposition politics “vibrant, robust, and engaging.”
 
“We resolved from this day forward that we shall change the face of Lagos politics,” the communiqué declared in a tone reminiscent of pre-1999 opposition energy.
 
Yet, while rhetoric is strong, the APC machinery in Lagos remains formidable. ADC’s ability to challenge it will depend on whether its coalition of ex-PDP, LP, and APC members can stay united and translate meetings into sustained grassroots mobilisation.
 
In Ekiti State, the ADC has moved from fringe status to potential main opposition. It has attracted high-profile defectors, including former deputy governors Prof. Olusola Eleka and Dr Tae Lawal; former SSG Amb. Dare Bejide, ex-Speaker Gboyega Aribisogan, and other ex-commissioners and lawmakers.
 
The PDP’s prolonged crisis and unrest in APC and LP ranks have given ADC a unique opening. Political analyst Dr Wole Balogun argues: “The greatest threat to APC in Ekiti may no longer be the PDP, SDP, or Labour Party. The ruling APC may ignore ADC at its own peril.” Still, he cautions that victory in 2026 may require a coalition with the PDP, as neither party may be strong enough to unseat the APC alone.
 
In Ondo, ADC’s rollout has been turbulent. Weeks after its Abuja unveiling, the state chapter plunged into a leadership crisis, with rival factions claiming control. Prof. Bode Ayorinde insists he is the state coordinator, while the official executive led by Mrs Sidikatu Ganiyu Ojo maintains it is the only recognised leadership.
 
This disarray was compounded by denials from PDP stalwarts rumoured to have joined ADC. Political analyst Dotun Adubiaro warns that, with less than two years to the polls, the party must quickly resolve internal disputes and broaden its grassroots appeal. “ADC needs more than recycled politicians to make an impact, especially in the South-West,” he said.
 
In Ogun, ADC faces battles on two fronts: against the ruling APC and the formidable PDP opposition. The party has been an outspoken critic of Governor Dapo Abiodun, accusing him of “misgovernance, economic recklessness, and plunging 68.1 per cent of residents into poverty.” APC dismissed the ADC as “a coalition of political scammers.”
 
In Osun, the 2026 governorship race could be a key test. Aregbesola, now ADC’s interim national secretary, is a former governor and seasoned grassroots mobiliser. Once an ally of Governor Ademola Adeleke, their relationship has soured, with the governor’s camp accusing Aregbesola’s administration of past financial mismanagement. ADC state chairman Dr Charles Idowu Omidiji insists the party is “the new bride in town” and capable of surprising both APC and PDP.
 
Oyo’s ADC story is one of potential without momentum. Political observers note its lack of strong personalities or grassroots structures. “It is still evolving,” says Prof. Rasheed Olaniyi of the University of Ibadan.

Failed attempts of Third Force in South-West
HISTORICALLY, “third forces” in Nigeria have collapsed before elections due to ego clashes, funding gaps, and shallow grassroots presence. The ADC’s survival and relevance in the Southwest will depend on its ability to maintain unity across chapters, settle disputes quickly, and avoid becoming just another refuge for aggrieved politicians.
 
From Lagos to Ekiti, the ADC has shown flashes of potential, gathering credible defectors and injecting fresh energy into political discourse. But in states like Ondo and Oyo, it remains disorganised or barely visible.
 
Political scientist Prof. Dhikru Yagboyaju summarises: “It may be too early to predict who has a real chance. But the coming together of politicians from diverse backgrounds under ADC is still foggy. The party could be relevant for the next elections if it remains intact beyond 2027.”
 
In short, ADC’s future in the South-West depends less on fiery speeches and more on sustained organisation, conflict resolution, and patient grassroots work. If it succeeds, it could become the most credible third force in the region since the AD-ACN era. If it fails, it risks fading into another political footnote.
 
Dismissing the possibility of the ADC penetrating the South-West in 2027, National Coordinator of the Southwest Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA), Senator Dayo Adeyeye, said all political indices point to the party making no significant impact against President Tinubu and the ruling APC in the region.
 
He argued that the ADC has no single elected official at either the federal or state level in the Southwest and that its leadership lacks electoral value. Beyond that, Adeyeye maintained that the politics of 2027 would be driven by ideology rather than sentiment.
 
“For instance, in Ekiti, there is no force that can stop Mr. President from winning if Governor Biodun Oyebanji secures his second term, which I am certain he will,” he said. “President Tinubu has done a lot to improve the image and fortunes of the Southwest, making it difficult for any opposition to gain ground.”
 
Adeyeye further claimed that the ADC would, in time, face internal crises because, in his view, the party was created specifically for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. “I can see Obi and others leaving the ADC in the near future,” he added.
 
However, the interim Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, strongly disagreed. According to him, if there is any region where the ADC is poised to thrive in 2027, it is the Southwest, given the number of politicians who have aligned with the party but are waiting for the right time to make their move.
 
“In Ekiti, the ADC is very strong. Just look at the flag-off of our party in the state, it was massive,” Abdullahi said. “We also have a solid base in Lagos, and Osun is practically our stronghold because of Rauf Aregbesola, a great grassroots mobiliser. The only state where we have some uncertainty is Ogun, but that is simply because I don’t yet have full information about our structure there. We are also strong in Ondo, where we have a former deputy governor, Ade Ajayi, in our ranks.”
 
Abdullahi’s optimism did not sit well with former Deputy National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Bode George, who dismissed the ADC outright.
 
“To me, the ADC is dead on arrival, especially with someone like Atiku, whose main motive is to rule Nigeria at all costs,” George said. “In the Southwest, I don’t see the ADC at all.”