Atiku, Tinubu target Kano as first major political ‘booty’

Previewing the Shura, Kwankwassiya divorce

What is happening today in Kano State could be described as a major political coup on the lead up to the 2023 general elections.
Indeed, to some watchers of Kano politics, it could pass as a second political dissension between Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau within the current fourth republic political dispensation.

Kano State has always impacted on the political barometer of Northern Nigeria. In the second republic, the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) were engaged in political supremacy battles.

Led by Mallam Aminu Kano, PRP was among the first, alongside Augustus Akinloye-led NPN, which comprised a plethora of first republic politicians, including Makama Bida and Suleiman Takuma.

It was from the Mallam Aminu Kano political grouping that such emergent leaders like charismatic Alhaji Abubakar Rimi and Balarabe Musa budded. Though Musa and Rimi could not hold the ground for long, they succeeded in showing that Kano politics as well as that of Kaduna belongs to the masses.

But for the state creation that took place in 1991, Alhaji Sule Lamido was already primed to take over the Mallam Aminu Kano political group. Rimi’s attempt to shake himself free from Mallam by crossing over to the defunct Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) paved the way for his eventual defeat by Barkin Zuwo in 1983. On the other hand, Musa was impeached by the NPN dominated Kaduna State House of Assembly led by Iro Dan Musa.

However, in 1999, the contest between the conservatives and social welfarist politicians pitted Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau against each other.

Having won the 1999 governorship poll, Governor Kwankwaso and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could not reflect the populist tendency of Kano politics, which led to their defeat in 2003 by Mallam Shekarau, whose ascetic lifestyle endeared him to the people.

In 2007, Shekarau proved that his understanding of Kano politics, particularly, his defeat of PDP on the platform of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) was not a fluke. He broke the jinx as the first governor to serve straight two terms in office as Kano State chief executive.

But, in 2011, due to a combination of political miscalculation and PDP’s legendary power of incumbency, Kwankwaso was helped back into office for a second term. Thereafter, the rivalry between Shekarau and Kwankwaso, who founded the Kwankwasiyya movement, continued.

It was against that backdrop of political animosity that, in 2014, when the merger of otherwise former fringe political parties was completed, Shekarau decided to migrate to PDP. APC had resolved that governors, crossing over from PDP should automatically exercise control of the party structure in their states.

Shekarau and his Sokoto State counterpart, Dr. Attahiru Bafarawa, among others, were peeved by the decision to hand over party structure to PDP governors that were not part of the merger talks.

Having joined PDP and, in a bid to empower to him to fight off the Kwankwaso challenge in Kano State, Mallam Shekarau was appointed Minister of Education in President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. What could have brought both Kano politicians together on one political platform was botched.
  
With Kwankwaso serving out his second term, he proceeded in enthroning his former deputy, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, as governor on APC platform, while he (Kwankwaso) went to represent Kano Central Senatorial District in the Senate.

DEFINING the divorce between Shekarau and Kwankwaso is the secret scheming for Kano votes by the presidential candidates of PDP and APC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Tinubu.
   
Although Kwankwaso explained that he rejected the offer to serve as running mate to the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, “because the mood of the North does not support a Southern presidency,” Shekarau believes that Kwankwaso’s major interest was to produce Ganduje’s successor and align with Tinubu, as a shortcut to a return to APC, Shekarau saw the refusal to incorporate his followers fully into NNPP as an ambush to emasculate him politically.
    
Again, based on Ganduje’s closeness to Tinubu, Shekarau feels that returning to APC does not hold much promise. He was said to have turned to the former Vice President, Atiku, who has more chances of clinching the presidency, and with the possibility of a handsome reward.
    
With Shekarau coming to his corner, the PDP presidential candidate, the Wazirin Adamawa, has returned Tinubu’s decision to pick his running mate from Northeast. And elated by that reality, Atiku will today storm the ancient city of Kano to formally welcome Shekarau back to the opposition party.

Shekarau, who eventually settled for PDP, few weeks after he dumped the NNPP, is battle-ready to put his political dexterity on line to garner Kano vote for Atiku in the APC state.
   
Although Shekarau had to dump the Kwankwassiya dominated NNPP because of unresolved differences, the former governor was said to have failed to secure a rightful place after the ill-fated meeting with the LP presidential candidate, where he lobbied be Obi’s running mate.  

Also, the APC presidential candidate, Tinubu’s attempt to win the heart of Shekarau also failed, even as the outcome of the meeting between Shekarau and Tinubu was not disclosed. But, it was obvious that the Senator was not disposed to Tinubu’s offer.

The PDP would be banking on the political pedigree of Shekarau to revive the low profile of the party and boost the chances of Atiku against, including Tinubu and Kwankwaso in the ancient town and across the Northwest.
    
But whether Shekarau would be able to douse the raging crisis in the party is another question, because already, PDP is divided into two: the Shehu Sagagi faction and Aminu Wali group, with each group fielding a governorship candidate.

Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognised Sadiq Aminu Wali as PDP governorship candidate, the Sagagi group, which is pushing the son of the late head of state, Sani Abacha, Mohammad Abacha, as governorship candidate, is in court seeking recognition.

Again, the Aminu Wali group had claimed that the Shehu Sagagi’s PDP leadership would never support Atiku’s presidential bid because of the loyalty to Kwankwaso who imposed them on the party in the first place. Besides, Atiku has accused Kwankwaso of selling Kano delegates under Shehu Sagagi’s leadership to Rivers State Governor, Wike during PDP presidential primary. Kwankwaso had since denied the accusation.

Another challenge for Shekarau is, who will be the party leader in the state, because he has to struggle to win the confidence of former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Aminu Wali and former Senator Bello Hayatu Gwarzo, who presently control the party structure in Kano.

While Shekarau is still a political gladiator in Kano politics with strong structure spread across the grassroots, his ability to claim majority votes from the ruling APC and NNPP, who are firmly rooted, is subject to conjecture.

For instance, the APC presidential contender, Tinubu, is not only popular within the religious and political classes in Kano, the waning power of incumbency both at the Central and in Kano metropolis, could be deployed to work magic.

Further, Shekarau must have lost some of his strong supporters who are not disposed to the serial voyage of going in and out of parties at the slightest provocation.

On the other hand, Kwankwaso enjoys an equally strong grassroots support through his kwankwasiyya movement.  Politics in Kano would prove scintillating in days to come.