The dust is yet to settle on the Garki/Babura Federal Constituency by-election, but one detail is already shaping the political conversation in Jigawa State — the outcome of Defence Minister Mohammed Badaru Abubakar’s polling unit.

For hours on Saturday night, social media was awash with claims that the former governor had lost his polling unit at Babura Kofar Arewa PU 001. To his critics, the “loss” was proof that his grassroots appeal had evaporated. But the narrative crumbled once INEC’s official transcript surfaced.

Badaru did not vote at PU 001. His accredited polling station is Babura Kofar Arewa Primary School PU 002. There, the numbers told a different story, indicating that the APC secured 188 votes while the PDP scored 164 votes.

Though narrow, it was a significant win for the Minister and his party.

In Nigerian politics, winning one’s polling unit is more than a routine statistic; it is a badge of legitimacy. Political leaders who lose at home are often taunted as “paperweight politicians” disconnected from their base.

For Badaru, who sits at the heart of both Jigawa politics and President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet, securing PU 002 was about sending a message: his hold on Babura remains intact.

Yet, beneath the APC’s victory lies an uncomfortable truth. The margin of 24 votes suggests that the PDP is steadily eating into APC territory. For a Minister with Badaru’s stature, such a close shave in his backyard signals that opposition forces are not to be underestimated.

Observers note that the PDP has been quietly building networks in Jigawa North-West, exploiting discontent over unemployment, rising costs of living, and internal APC rivalries. Saturday’s contest, they argue, is a warning that the 2027 elections could be more competitive than expected.

The fake result attributed to PU 001 also speaks volumes. In an era where disinformation spreads faster than official declarations, controlling the narrative has become as crucial as winning votes. For a high-profile figure like Badaru, the attempt to cast doubt on his political strength shows how deeply contested the Jigawa political turf has become.

As Defence Minister, Badaru is central to national security conversations. But at home, his political survival still depends on retail politics — maintaining loyalty among ward leaders, youth groups, and rural voters. The PU 002 win gives him breathing space, but the close numbers are a reminder that the ground beneath him is shifting.

For the APC in Jigawa, the challenge will be to consolidate its dominance without appearing complacent. For the PDP, the takeaway is simple: Badaru can still be rattled, and Babura may yet be the launchpad for a broader resurgence.

Badaru’s victory in PU 002 is both a relief and a reality check. It shows he is still a force in Jigawa, but not an untouchable one. The battle for Jigawa’s political soul is far from over — and Saturday’s by-election may just be a preview of the stormier contests ahead.