Who are former President Goodluck Jonathan’s marketers in his South/South and South East former vote territories? LEO SOBECHI and ANN GODWIN write that the defection of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors from the two geopolitical zones to the All Progressives Congress (APC) seems to compound the opposition party’s dream of defeating incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 polls, thereby regaining national political reckoning through a Jonathan candidacy.

There are four big names that have been making the rounds as serious contenders for the 2027 Presidency. In addition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose aspiration to seek re-election is becoming clearer by the day, the three other names include former vice president Atiku Abubakar and former governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi.

While Atiku and Obi, both of whom came behind Tinubu in the 2023 presidential contest, are warming up for a rematch, the fourth big name happens to be former president Goodluck Jonathan, who was displaced by Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015.

If the pronouncements by influential stakeholders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the platform on which Jonathan lost the Presidency 10 years ago, are anything to go by, the presidential ballot would have two contenders in the race for a second tenure.

But a lot has happened in the nation’s polity since Jonathan left the Presidency against the constitutional run of play that entitles him to two terms. Interestingly, the same APC that packaged his circumstantially enforced exit, is still waxing strong atop the pinnacle of the country’s political power.

Other changes in the political arena include the fact that unlike in 2015 when the former president had retired General Muhammadu Buhari as his major challenger, the presidential contest has widened to include three strong contenders in the persons of an incumbent President Tinubu, Atiku, Obi and also the strong man of Kano State politics, Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Although the outcome of the 2023 presidential contest showed that that year’s poll was not Kwankwaso’s time, it is yet to be known whether the former Kano State governor would member on the 2027 presidential ballot or end up as a stalwart supporter for the incumbent in readiness for the 2031 edition.

Although it is generally believed that the period spanning 2023 through 2031 is in principle allotted to the country’s South to occupy the Presidency, both Atiku and Kwankwaso insist on carrying through their political supremacy battle, which climaxed in their days in PDP through APC and back, before seeking presidential laurels on disparate platforms.

Again, unlike in 2015 when he was the only southern presidential contender, 2027 would most likely have as many as four southern presidential contenders on the APC, Labour Party (LP), PDP and Social Democratic Party (SDP) platforms.

So, in the event that Jonathan yields to the temptation to seek a come-back like the current Ghanaian President, John Mahama, who though lost re-election in 2016 and 2020, got lucky in the 2024 presidential election in Ghana, there is nothing to buttress the speculation that he may be receiving encouragement from Mahama’s political odyssey. However, the fact that both share similar political experience gives impetus for such contemplation.

Like Jonathan, Mahama ascended from being Ghana’s vice president to substantive president when his principal, John Atta Mills, died in office on April 24, 2012. Though he was elected full president in December 2012, Mahama lost to the opposition in 2016 and 2020 when he sought re-election for a second term.

Such narrative is enticing enough to lure Jonathan back to the campaign turf for another possible recruitment as Nigeria’s leader.

However, it should be noted that the mass movement of former PDP governors, lawmakers and council chairmen and councillors into the ruling APC gained traction shortly after Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, began singing about a possible Jonathan’s candidacy for the 2027 presidential election.

Mohammed, who was appointed as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) by Jonathan, declared publicly that he would shelve his presidential ambition if the former president agrees to contest the 2027 presidential poll.

Some observers have claimed that the best time for Jonathan to have launched a comeback bid was in the 2023 poll. But the situation in his party (PDP) then, when his former underling, Nyesom Wike, was looming larger than life while standing against Atiku’s affront to the North/South power rotation principle, made such an aspiration unthinkable.

As the buildup to the next general election cycle gathers steam, what then are the prospects of Jonathan’s candidacy in 2027 in the light of the seeming displacement of PDP in the South/South region, which ordinarily stands as his strong base? Also, with the South East, which served as an augmentation geopolitical zone for the former president, most likely to queue behind the former LP presidential standard bearer, Obi, where would Jonathan’s competitive ballots come from?

Already, four states in the South South are under the control of the APC – Delta, Edo, Akwa Ibom and Cross River. Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri, recently announced his resignation from PDP. Although he is yet to announce the party he would join, it was reliably gathered that his followers and supporters have started defecting to APC.

So, apparently, the only state in the region still outside the control of the APC is Rivers, where Governor Siminalayi Fubara is in charge. But Senate President Godswill Akpabio had predicted that both Rivers and Bayelsa governors would join the APC. Should that happen, Jonathan would be in the race without the support of any governor in his stronghold.

Grandstanding Of A Fractured North
IT could be said that the move to bring back Jonathan to the Presidency is being engineered by the northern political tendency within the troubled PDP as their way of accentuating the zone’s opposition to President Tinubu’s second term manoeuvers.

Penultimate week, the PDP Northern Support Group announced its ‘complete’ and implicit support for the former president, stressing that there was no going back in their determination to ensure that he flies the party’s flag in the 2027 presidential contest.

While describing Jonathan as not only the candidate that could resuscitate the PDP, but also capable of restoring Nigeria’s unity, the group’s northern Coordinator, Yusuf Abubakar, declared that an aggressive and coordinated media campaign would drive the former president’s comeback bid. However, the group failed to take into cognizance the new ballot geography that emerged from the 2023 presidential poll.

For instance, the northern states that PDP won in 2023 were Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Taraba and Yobe. The electoral map revealed that APC’s Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku split the northern ballot. And putting into consideration the emerging momentum of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the region, how far a Jonathan candidacy on the PDP platform could go in the scramble for northern votes with the ADC flag possibly in the hands of Atiku can only be imagined.

It is obvious that those nudging Jonathan on for the 2027 showdown runs with the whimsical impression that the power rotation principle would displace the old identity politics that shapes northern ballot. Granted that PDP’s stature and spread helped to gift Atiku the upper hand he received in the 2023 poll, it is noteworthy that the ADC is already embarking on the same aggressive media campaign the PDP NSG clings to.

That fact became apparent after the former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai visited Sokoto in his membership drive for the ADC. But the failure of el-Rufai to replicate the Sokoto success story when he tried to coalesce opposition elements in his home state, Kaduna, shows that President Tinubu’s decision to anchor his re-election plans around state governors, whom he identified as the real foot soldiers for any political party in the fight for presidential ballots, is strategic.

If the scenario in the North paints the picture of a tough mountain to climb for Jonathan, it shows how scary the reality is in the South, where the APC and Tinubu have succeeded in putting up a strong electoral wall in the form of Southern Solidarity, with the legendary ‘foot soldiers’ moving around with the APC’s blue flags.

However, the first litmus test for the pro-Jonathan movement in the North is the November 15/16 elective National Convention of PDP, otherwise called Ibadan 2025. Already, Jonathan’s strong allies, Senator Ibrahim Shekarau and Saminu Turaki (SAN), are in the front row of contenders for the position of national chairman.

Among the four big names from the North associated with the race for PDP national chairman, Turaki (Kebbi) and Shekarau (Kano) are believed to be partial towards Jonathan, while the other big guns, Senator Ahmed Makarfi and Sule Lamido, seem to be driven by the cry for PDP’s urgent revival.

Makarfi, who is seen as a moderate, had served as the party’s caretaker chairman during PDP’s turbulent days shortly after the party’s loss of the Presidency in 2015. On the other hand, Lamido, who received some raw deal under Jonathan’s Presidency, is seen as a staunch ally of Atiku.

With these cobwebs around PDP’s search for a new leader, the party is still trying to survive the ambush and minefield presented by the current Minister of the FCT, Mr. Nyesom Wike, and his G5-1. Further, given Governor Seyi Makinde’s financial and moral support for the party, how feasible is it that after the battle to save PDP is won, the Oyo State helmsman would not be another Wike?

Then on the flipside comes the Chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum, Bala Mohammed. The Bauchi State governor has never hidden his belief that Jonathan remains PDP’s mascot for its desire to return to the Presidency and national political reckoning. But as things stand in the party, Bala’s enthusiasm is being strait jacketed as a clever political scheme to become a presidential running mate and from there gather further political stature to contest as the party’s presidential contender in 2031.

With the unfolding chicken fights for the soul of PDP in the lead up to the party’s Ibadan 2025, it could be seen that Jonathan’s speculated interest in the party’s presidential ticket is a sub-theme in the fight for control of the party’s structure by the various entrenched interests, particularly the pro-Tinubu/APC Wike faction, the Makinde tendency and Mohammed’s bring back Jonathan lineup.

In the entire build up, the shadow of Atiku still looms around, given that Atiku’s allies believe that a Jonathan candidacy in the PDP would without doubt hamstrung his claim to a larger chunk of the northern bloc votes. Those pushing for Lamido’s emergence as the next PDP chairman, apart from advancing the fact that the former Jigawa State governor has never left the party, also claim that a Lamido as PDP national chairman would guarantee Atiku’s return to the main opposition party.

The Guardian was not able to ascertain how much critical thinking has gone on around the plan to usher in Jonathan as the PDP champion for the contentious 2027 presidential showdown.

But speaking after its eighth meeting in Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State, last Wednesday and Thursday, the Northern Coordinator, Yusuf Abubakar, and the North-West Zonal Secretary, Adamu Narayi, maintained that only Jonathan holds the promise of regaining the glory of PDP as a truly national movement.

While affirming their support for Ambassador Iliya Damagun, the Northern PDP Support Group, in the communiqué issued after the Kebbi meeting, said it remained “optimistic that the PDP is not beyond redemption.”

The group waved off arguments that the constitution rules Jonathan out of contention, stressing: “With genuine commitment and collective sacrifice, our great party will reclaim power at the national level and in states currently under the APC. There is no going back on Jonathan in 2027.

“Dr Jonathan has never abandoned the PDP. He peacefully handed over power in 2015 and continues to stand for unity, progress, and stability. He is a tested leader and symbol of peace.”

Speaking in the same vein, a lecturer at the Public Policy Department, Abia State University, Dr. Christian Onyegbule, said Jonathan is now more experienced, politically aware and conscious, and better equipped to navigate leadership challenges than before, when people took his humility for weakness.

“If given another opportunity to lead Nigeria, he would likely perform better than in his previous administration. Without the pressure of seeking re-election, he would be more focused on correcting the mistakes and perceived shortcomings of his earlier tenure.

“The Jonathan of 2015 is not the same as the Jonathan of today. In some ways, his current outlook could be likened to that of U.S. President Donald Trump, who, in his second run, worked with renewed determination knowing he would not be seeking another term,” he said.

The varsity don said that due to the seeming dissatisfaction of Nigerians with the current administration, the 2027 elections will not be about political parties but about individuals who can deliver to the people.

“The people will decide who leads them next. The PDP, at present, appears to be struggling, and its future remains uncertain. However, Goodluck Jonathan, as an individual, stands apart from party limitations. During our last meeting with him, we urged him to come out openly and not to hide under the guise of possibilities and impossibilities. Ultimately, it will be a contest between the APC and the will of Nigerians — regardless of political platforms,” he said.

For Mrs. Justina Amadi, a gender-based advocate, Jonathan stands a good chance if he decides to contest the 2027 presidential election.

She said many Nigerians believe he would be a better option, considering his past record as president when the economy was relatively stable and friendly compared to current situations.

“Although the PDP is facing internal crises, there is still enough time – about two years – for reconciliation and reorganisation before the elections. Should the situation in the PDP remain unresolved, Jonathan can still choose to contest under another political platform.

“From all indications, Nigerians are waiting eagerly for Jonathan’s declaration. Some groups have already endorsed him even before his announcement. If he eventually joins the race, it will likely be a fierce contest between President Bola Tinubu and Jonathan,” Amadi said.

A public policy analyst, Alambo Datonye, said if Jonathan indicates interest in the 2027 race and the nation holds a free and fair election based purely on popularity and performance, he stands a strong chance of victory.

According to Datonye, there is a need for the opposition political parties to unite ahead of the 2027 elections and select a credible candidate like Jonathan to truly get the desired change.

He urged Nigerians to reject the politics of stomach infrastructure, saying it has crippled the nation.

He added: “Political infrastructure has created a political class that is largely unaccountable. Until citizens reject this culture of trading votes for temporary relief, progress will remain elusive. We must hold public office holders accountable and end the manipulation of poverty as a political weapon.

“At this stage in our democratic journey, Nigerians must not allow a situation where opposition voices are silenced or weakened; that is not democracy. After 26 years of continuous democratic practice, we should have evolved into a society where citizens are politically conscious and determined to demand good governance.

“In the United States, for instance, political power alternates between Democrats and Republicans every four or eight years. The same pattern is seen in Ghana, where opposition parties regularly take power through democratic means. It is not mandatory for the incumbent to always win, especially when the people are dissatisfied. Therefore, supporters of Goodluck Jonathan, who see him as a viable alternative, must mobilise resources, build alliances, and work hard to counter the influence of the ruling party.

“If Jonathan is to make a political comeback, he must demonstrate stronger political will. During his previous tenure, that was one area where he was seen as lacking. To make a real impact, a leader must summon the courage to confront the root causes of Nigeria’s crises, particularly insecurity and economic mismanagement.

“Leadership is not about occupying an office; it requires commitment, hard work, and sacrifice. It demands that a leader rolls up his sleeves and delivers the dividends of democracy daily to the people. If Jonathan chooses to return, he must be ready to work tirelessly to fix the economy, manage the country’s resources responsibly, and improve the lives of Nigerians. Only then can his comeback truly make a difference.”

A political analyst, Henry Eferegbo, described Jonathan as a good candidate who has conscience and understands that power belongs to the people unlike other desperate politicians.

He noted that the challenge would be the political party he (Jonathan) would fly its flag, stressing that the former president needs a formidable platform to sail through.

But a lawyer and lecturer at the Political Science Department, Rivers State University, Dr. Chukwuma Chinwo, reasoned that the renewed interest in Jonathan, especially from the North, is not necessarily out of genuine support for his leadership, but rather a calculated political move to limit the chances of a southerner serving beyond a single term.

Chukwuma said: “Any attempt to bring Jonathan back into the presidential race may only serve to worsen the situation, rather than improve it.

“In my opinion, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan has already served his term and given his best to Nigeria. At this stage, he should not allow himself to be used and discarded by political actors seeking to advance their own interests. It is on record that many members of the PDP, particularly from the North, abandoned him at a critical moment during his Presidency. Their renewed interest in him today is not necessarily out of genuine support for his leadership, but rather a calculated political move to limit the chances of a southerner serving beyond a single term.

“The political situation within the PDP, especially in the South-South, further complicates the matter. The party appears fragmented and lacks the cohesion needed to genuinely support his candidacy. Any attempt to bring Jonathan back into the presidential race may only serve to worsen the situation, rather than improve it.

“Therefore, I strongly believe that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan should remain the respected statesman he has become. He has already held the highest office in the land and served for five years. It would be in his best interest – and in the nation’s – to continue playing his current role as a peace ambassador and elder statesman, offering wisdom and guidance rather than re-entering the political fray.”

To George Turnah, a PDP stalwart in Bayelsa State, Jonathan was yet to make his intentions known; hence talks about his possible appearance on the 2027 presidential ballot are merely speculative.

The days ahead will tell!