Intrigues that aborted February 14, 28 polls

ORDINARILY, it behooves a political party in power (and those on its platform) offering itself for re-election, to ensure that the timelines are adhered to, especially in a case where the incumbent had performed well in office and want to teach the challengers or co-contestants one or two lessons in the power of incumbency.

  This scenario was actually playing out in the run-up to the 2015 general elections in the country, what with the government of the day kick-starting campaigns for the elections, while the opposition or elements of it was still incubating a coalition of forces into a merger.

  Notwithstanding a one-year head start, speculations suddenly began to rear their heads early in 2015, in the form of alleged plan to postpone the elections, as claimed by the major opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).

  Surprisingly, officials of the government and its ruling party reportedly orchestrated the call for postponement of the February 14 and 28 elections.

  Presidential aide on public affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe, literally gave a stamp of authority to the opposition claim last Friday in Abuja.

  This was in the heat of meetings of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) with stakeholders, including political parties and the commission’s National Commissioners.

  Okupe, at a press conference to clarify the outcome of the Council of State meeting held on Thursday, said that in suggesting a shift in the dates for the elections, consideration was given to the distribution of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and security challenges in the Northeast of the country.

  “The consideration behind the possibility of change of date is to allow those who may be disfranchised from voting on the 14th February to have an opportunity to exercise their lawful rights to vote and participate in the general elections,” he said.

  “The new wave of successes being recorded by the military in the war against insurgency, especially with the arrival of new effective combatant equipment and machinery, plus the newly revamped cross-border co-operation with Niger, Chad and Camerounian military, offer a very genuine hope that in a very short while, the situation in the affected states will be brought under such reasonable control that will guarantee safety of the electoral process and electorate in the warfront region of the Northeast at a no distant future.”

  Okupe dismissed opposition’s claim that postponing the elections would portend danger to the nation.

  “We challenge the opposition to tell Nigerians in clear terms, what dangers the change of date from February 14th portends to the electoral process or to the Nigerian electorate,” he said. 

  “It will also be good if the opposition tells us who stands to benefit or be disadvantaged from any shifting of date and how.

  “We repeat that the only set of people, who stand to benefit from a shift in election dates, are Nigerians who desire to vote and have not been able to collect their Permanent Voter Cards and other innocent citizens living in the war zone who may not be able to vote on the 14th February.”

  The call for postponement of the elections started like a joke. And were it to occur in April, it would be labeled as an April fool’s message — a fast joke played on the sensibility of Nigerians.

  As is usual in this 2015 election cycle, spokespersons of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) labeled the whistle blown on the alleged plan as one of the antics of the opposition APC.

  Indeed, it was the APC, via its spokesman, Alhaji Lai Muhammed, that alleged of a plan by the government of President Goodluck Jonathan to push for the postponement of the elections.

  But while the back and forth was going on between the PDP and the APC, the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (Rtd) joined the fray in faraway London, the United Kingdom.

  Dasuki was at Chatham House, London, to deliver a paper on Nigeria’s 2015 elections. Although he did not touch on the issue of postponement in the lecture, he, nonetheless, reportedly told a wire service in an interview that he had advised the Chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahiru Jega, on the need to shift the elections. 

  His reason then was not so much on the envisaged security challenges in the conduct of the elections, but to allow for proper preparations and distribution of the PVCs to the electorate.

  Before then — and even now, the issue of distribution and collection of the PVCs had posed a serious test to INEC’s successful conduct of free, fair and credible elections. The distribution and collection rate had barely exceeded 60 per cent as at the time of going to the press yesterday.

  The Dasuki bombshell generated instant bedlam in the polity, with the NSA denying ever making such call in his London lecture, copies of which his aides quickly circulated round media houses — to show nothing like that happened, while at the same time cleverly circumventing the reported interview with a news agency.   

  Before long, however, street protests broke out in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja and some major cities around the country, calling for the postponement of the elections. 

  The protesters, apparently at the behest of the government, parroted the glitches in the distribution and collection of PVCs, and the security situation in the Northeast states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, as the basis for their call.

  In the midst of the APC continuing to insist, via press conferences, that the plan to shift the elections was premised on the fear of the ruling PDP losing the elections if held as scheduled, and the PDP replying in kind, that the opposition was merely raising a red herring; President Jonathan summoned a meeting of the Council of State, to deliberate on pressing national matters.

  But it turned out that the main purpose for the meeting was the 2015 elections: to shift or not to shift them from February 14 and 28.

  Information from the Thursday meeting in Abuja indicated that majority of the attendees favoured conducting the elections this month, but with a caveat for the INEC to consult with various stakeholders before the commencement of the polls on February 14.

  However, there was confusion about the actual decision of the Council, which was attended by all but one (Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo) former Heads of State or Governments, former Chief Justices of the Federation, the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, State Governors, the Service Chiefs and the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice. 

  There were divergent views by the Governors of Ondo and Imo States, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko and Owelle Rochas Okorocha, respectively, who were mandated by the Council to brief the press.

  While Mimiko said the Council urged the INEC to consult widely before holding the elections, Okorocha insisted that the decision of the mainly advisory body was for the electoral body to conduct the elections, as scheduled.

  Nevertheless, the impression watchers of the polity got from the Council’s decision was that the ball was thrown into the INEC court — to play or not to play: meaning to go on with the elections, as planned or postpone them based on the alleged challenges on ground.

INEC’s decision to shift polls

IN the heat of the brouhaha occasioned primarily by the failure of the INEC to make available PVCs to all registered voters, the commission’s chair, Prof. Jega, restated his stand that INEC was ready to conduct the elections, as slated, and that he would not entertain any shift in the timelines.

  Jega reportedly told a group of friends that he would rather resign his appointment than postpone the general elections.

  According to a source quoted by Universal Reporters, an online platform, Jega said, “he would resign his appointment and save his personal and professional integrity, as an academic, than be humiliated by the act of postponing the elections.”

  The INEC Chairman spoke following media reports that the National Council of State may advise against holding the elections, “using the inexcusable excuse of poor distribution of PVCs.”

  Jega said in spite of all the efforts put by his commission, and with over 80 per cent of PVCs made available, “it will be dishonest for anybody to use this exercise to call for the postponement of the elections.”

  The source said Jega told his friends that if postponement was forced on the commission, then the honourable option open to him was to resign.

  “Jega had maintained that, ‘nobody’s demand, including that of the National Council of State (NCS), or any other institution, will make INEC to postpone the February general elections, as scheduled.’”

  Insisting that any postponement of the elections would cause more harm to the country than good, Jega reportedly said that, “only a Supreme Court order will make him shift ground.”

  The question is: What had changed, between the time Prof. Jega made those declarations and the time he briefed the Council of State and consulted with other stakeholders, to yield grounds, and even maintain that he would not resign his position, as clamoured by a section of the country?

  Some sources alluded to the letter written by the National Security Adviser and the advise of the Service Chiefs, respectively, “pointing out the grave dangers inherent in the INEC insisting, and going ahead with the elections.”

  As one of the sources said: “The INEC Chairman was ready to go ahead with elections despite the shortcomings in the distribution and collection of the PVCs.

  “But on reflection, and with his consultations with some of his strategic thinkers, several of them outside the commission, he came to the conclusion that he would be more exposed to odium should he go ahead with the election and meet with monumental failure.”

  On what is meant by “monumental failure,” the source lowered its voice, if the walls around had ears, and said: “possible sabotage of the elections, to spite Prof. Jega.”

  The source continued: “You know that the INEC has no control over security and the security apparatchiks have told him in plain language that they would not provide protection for INEC staff and materials.

  “So, what do you want Prof. Jega to do? Go ahead with elections and expose his staff, election materials and even the electorate and observers to insecurity at the polls?

  “Only a foolish man will do that; and I know that Prof. Jega is not a foolish man even though he feels strongly about his integrity.”

  Little wonder that the straight-shooter INEC chair suddenly appeared to be speaking from both sides of the mouth on the issue of the elections.

  It is worthwhile to note his prevarication, when he briefed the Council of State on the preparedness of the commission to conduct a successful and an acceptable election.

  The Guardian gathered that Jega was not categorical; instead, he gave the impression that his commission would not be able to meet the timelines for the February 14 and 28 elections.

  According to a source, “It was clear that the INEC Chairman was weighing heavily what the National Security Adviser and Service Chiefs said about security in the Northeast, and, in fact, the country in general, and INEC’s inconclusive arrangements as capable of affecting the conduct of the elections.”

  It was in line with this “apprehension” that Jega briefed the Council meeting, as shown in the summary below gleaned form an agency report:

  “There are PVCs, which have been stolen before they were collected by their owners, or which were damaged, or which were for people, who have done transfers, and which the commission has decided to reproduce.

  “In any case, the commission will appreciate advice on this matter.”

Card readers

  “The commission ordered for the production and delivery of 182,000 customized CRs, sufficient for 150,829 voting points (VPs), plus redundancies. Out of this number, 154,500 have since been delivered and distributed to the states and FCT. 

  “The remaining balance of 27,500 has been produced and shipped and is expected on Wednesday, February 4th (a day before he briefed the Council).

  “In the highly unlikely event that a CR fails, we have enough spares to deploy before the end of accreditation at 1pm and adjust the time to gain lost time.” 

Non-sensitive materials

  “There were delays in respect of sending the materials to Borno and Yobe states because we have to keep them longer in the zonal store until adequate security arrangements have been made to transport them to the states. 

  “A couple of months ago, INEC’s state offices in Yobe were damaged by insurgents and 11 Hilux vehicles carted away.

  “Although timelines have been missed in respect of the supply/delivery of some of the non-sensitive materials to the states, in general.”

Recruitment and training of Ad-hoc (temporary) election personnel

  “Given that larger number of Ad-hoc staff will be used in 2015 compared with 2011, the training is slightly more challenging.

  “With the benefit of hindsight, and given the new technology of PVC and CR, we could do with more days of especially hands-on training for POs and APOs. 

  “Regrettably, we can’t do that due to funding constraints. Also, a more decentralised, LGA level training with smaller numbers on classroom would have been ideal.”

Public enlightenment, sensitization and voter education

  “In a country the size and complexity of Nigeria, public enlightenment, sensitisation and voter education are circumscribed by enormous challenges.

  “However, a lot more still needs to be done by all stakeholders to intensify voter education as we get close to the dates of the elections.

  “For things under the commission’s control, our accomplishments are to such degree that we can conduct the elections, in spite of the identifiable challenges.

  “Consequently, although our state of preparedness may not be 100% or perfect, and although a bit more time of additional preparation would enable us improve and perfect the current level of preparedness, we believe that we’re ready for the elections, as planned.

  “No matter the extent of our readiness, if there are serious security concerns, the successful conduct of free, fair, credible and peaceful elections would be greatly jeopardised.

  “This is a new development that INEC cannot certainly ignore or take lightly.”

  From the foregoing, it was obvious that the INEC was not ready for the elections, given delays in sending the materials to Borno and Yobe states because of inadequate security arrangements; incomplete training of ad-hoc staff aided by shortage of funds; need to intensify voter education; and most importantly, serious security concerns.

  Hence, Jega said: “This (serious security concerns) is a new development that INEC cannot certainly ignore or take lightly.”

  Putting all these issues in perspective, Prof. Jega, midnight on Saturday, briefed a world press conference on the outcome of his deliberations with stakeholders on the 2015 elections scheduled to take off on Saturday, February 14, 2015.

  The long and short of the briefing was the postponement of the elections by six weeks, which tallies with the widely canvassed suggestion by the Presidency.