Ogun 2019: No man’s land, recipe for violence

The March 2, 2019 governorship election in Ogun State, will be a replica of that of 2011, where the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), an offshoot of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), sponsored by the then governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel succeeded in dislodging the party that brought him to power.
What is however new is the dangerous dimension the build-up to the election is tilting, as the state has earned the status of a flashpoint where has become the means to win votes.

Since 1999, Ogun State has never had it so unclear in an election year, not to have a clear-cut direction of a possible heir apparent to replace the incumbent governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun. But less than one month to the governorship election, uncertainty and anxiety hallmark the political space, as the electorate is unsure of which political party or candidate will likely take over the number seat in the state.

Currently, The Guardian gathered that Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI) of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) appears to be the most experienced of the governorship candidates, based on the number of times he has presented himself for elections, coupled with the fact that he has a structure of his own. A politician told The Guardian “For now, whether in Ogun West, Central or East, GNI remains the most popular candidate.”

But funds, The Guardian learnt might pose challenge to his aspiration, as candidates of other political parties seem to have more to spend. One candidate that might give GNI a good run for his popularity is his kinsman, Adekunle Akinlade, the candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), who also hails from the Yewa extraction. With the backing of his godfather, who is the Governor of the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, report has it that Akinlade has robust financial capacity, allegedly ‘state resources’ to coerce the electorate to dislodge the All Progressives Congress (APC), where his principal is a senatorial candidate. Akinlade is rolling out big, using every available resources at his disposal-money, boys and closeness to his ‘master, to full advantage.

In a recent interview with The Guardian, Akinlade boasted thus: “I enjoy with due respect the full support of the APC in the zone. I ran for the governorship primary in APC and won. The full compliment of the APC is with me. This is a platform; I ran on the APC and won the election across board, across the state.

“The people are not changing; the same people that voted during the primaries are the same people that will vote during the general elections. APC has not changed and the people have not changed, what I have that GNI doesn’t have in Ogun West is this-all the House of Assembly aspirants that won the NWC conducted and announced primaries, who were not given their tickets, they are ready and their people are ready to vote for me. And let me tell you something that I have come to learn, the fact that you aspire for an office two times doesn’t mean you have the experience or anything on ground, it doesn’t mean that. When you are talking about experience and acceptability I think I have that.”

But based on feelers, Akinlade’s chances could suffer some challenges like the PPN in the 2011 governorship election, when the candidate of the party, GNI lost out when he could not summon the required numbers.Yet, the APM could count on the fact that majority of aggrieved State Assembly aspirants, and National Assembly aspirants, who were reportedly substituted by APC but given soft landing by the APM and are mobilising massively for the party to win in order to put APC to shame.

Like APM, PPN had the best campaign structure in 2011. It spent the most money, largely state resources, as it is now, with superb mobilisation efforts, but those opposed to the former governor’s continuous reign by proxy scuttled the plan, which produced Amosun of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

For the PDP, the lingering litigation and factionalisation is critically dampening the party’s chances at the poll. With just few weeks to the election, two candidates-Ladi Adebutu and Senator Buruji Kashamu are laying claim to the party’s sole ticket. Whatever the outcome of planned reconciliatory moves to bring the two together to present a candidate, according to analysts, the party might end up capturing a small fraction of Ogun East, due to the presence of the APC candidate, Dapo Abiodun and Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, who both hails from the senatorial district.

For the APC, though the campaign machinery has hit the road, it appears dull and inactive, considering the arduous task ahead of it. The ruling party has a lot to do, as members of the APM are their familiar foes, who may be difficult to subdue. Though the National Working Committee (NWC) has succeeded in disbanding the state structure of the party, which appears too late, the Governor and his cohorts have established another structure deeper into the grassroots, which has been able to capture hearts of many with immense resources flowing on daily basis.

With Osinbajo’s campaign train also hitting the ground and running for two weeks, visiting monarchs and taking on party leaders on one-on-one basis, with majority seeming to be having a change of mind and falling in love with the party with the idea of retaining power both at the state and national level, coupled with presidential backing, APC also have some chance. All things being equal, the APC should be able to make a good showing, but there may be surprises, as APM will put up serious fight, likewise ADC and other parties.

However, based on the determination by the parties to dominate in their strongholds, and thus creating an atmosphere of desperation, there are worries as the state will be a hotbed for political violence, as the tempo of hostility increases daily.For instance, in the Ogun Central, where Amosun holds way, it is going to be a tug of war for APM and APC on one hand, and APM and other parties on the other hand, as Amosun believes the senatorial zone is his stronghold, where he would garner more than enough votes to make his candidate win the governorship election convincingly. Interestingly, the former governor of the state, Aremo Olusegun Osoba, who is solidly behind the APC candidate, Abiodun is also from the Ogun Central.

Currently, based on reports, manifestation of violence is everywhere across Ogun Central, as the APM does not want to cede an inch of space, but the APC too, who are used to the game, would not rest while terror is unleashed on them. They are fighting back.

Similar scenarios will likely play out in Ogun West zone, as both Akinlade and GNI are hoping to reap bountifully there, being their home zone. Akinlade, with the support of other aggrieved Assembly members that were sidelined, including the outgoing Speaker of the House of Assembly, Suraj Adekanbi would boost the chances of APM in the area, but GNI, who is on ground in some areas in the zone, will also put up a serious fight, as this seems to make a mark.

THE Ogun East zone will be a three-horse race. The soul of the zone is already divided among Buruji Kashamu, Ladi Adebutu and Abiodun, while the influence of the Vice President, Osinbajo will add up to the chances of the APC. Rumour has it that Kashamu might play the spoiler, just to favour Ogun East. He might work behind the scene for the APC against the PDP.

Violence is being recorded daily across the state. Supporters of the APM allegedly attacked one of the APC supporters in Ewekoro Local Government, early this month. The middle-aged man was severly matcheted on his head and was later rushed to the hospital.On January 11, members of the APC while awaiting the arrival of the party’s governorship candidate, Abiodun, who was on a ward-to-ward tour of the Odogbolu Local Government Area, were attacked. Reports have it that unknown gunmen opened fire on the supporters at the venue of the rally, injuring three, including a Police officer.

On January 13, the two factions of the PDP unleash mayhem on themselves in Sagamu area of the state, with many wounded and vehicles destroyed.It was also reported that Abiodun’s supporters had a bloody clash with the APM supporters last Thursday, when the APC convoy was attacked during their campaign in Abeokuta.