As controversy deepens over the 176 estate developments flagged this month in Lagos, urban analysts have warned that without tackling the root causes of unregulated growth, new “illegal” estates will keep springing up under different names and in new locations.
The estates, concentrated in Eti-Osa, Ajah, Ibeju-Lekki, and Epe, were built without mandatory layout approvals from the Ministry of Physical Planning and Urban Development. Developers now have 21 days to regularise their projects or face sanctions.
Analysts told The Guardian that the crisis reflects a deeper structural problem as housing demand in Lagos continues to far outpace supply, driven by rapid population growth, rural–urban migration, and rising land costs. Formal housing channels remain slow, costly, and tangled in bureaucratic red tape.
This mismatch pushes many buyers and developers into informal arrangements, purchasing land from traditional owners or building incrementally without permits. Weak enforcement, overlapping land administration systems, and occasional political interference mean that by the time authorities move in, entire communities are already established.
The former president of the Association of Town Planning Consultants of Nigeria (ATOPCON), Dr Moses Ogunleye, told The Guardian that an estate becomes illegal if its development is not by the Town Planning Law.
“Specifically, no one should develop an estate without an approved layout plan,” he said. “The essence is to ensure orderly development of the neighbourhood, guiding both land use and infrastructure provision.”
Ogunleye, a past chairman of the Lagos chapter of the Nigerian Institute of Town Planners (NITP), lamented that the country has been poorly built due to non-compliance with laws requiring layout plans for all parts of Nigeria under the National Physical Development framework.
He absolved government-employed town planners of blame, noting that they often lack the right tools and equipment to work. “Budgetary provision for physical planning is poor, yet governments, particularly states, make significant revenue from aspects of planning such as development control and planning permits,” he said.
NITP Lagos Chairman, Mr Dele Akindele, backed the Lagos government’s recent action, though he suggested that the persistence of illegal developments may stem from a shortage of manpower to monitor all physical projects across the state.
According to him, the bureaucratic structure of Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) often stifles “full professional expression,” especially when decisions conflict with higher authorities. He also cited inadequate funding as a barrier to implementing operational development plans.
“Lagos State is fortunate to be covered by master and model city plans,” Akindele noted. “Many communities also have lower-level plans such as action area plans, development guide plans, and layout schemes, but they lack the funds and institutional capacity to implement them effectively.”
He added that limited opportunities for practical, hands-on training, both locally and internationally, deprive town planners of exposure to modern planning techniques in a rapidly changing world.
The ongoing controversy has brought to the fore the need for inclusive urban planning and governance. The African Cities Research Consortium (ACRC) has been at the forefront of this issue, with the controversy touching on three of its key research domains: housing and land markets, urban planning and infrastructure, and urban governance.
Over the years, studies have shown that the solution lies not in demolition, but in reform. Therefore, the group advocated aligning formal rules with the ways people access land and housing.
This approach prioritises the integration of informal systems into urban planning, improving governance, and ensuring infrastructure provision matches population growth.
“The proliferation of illegal estates is not just a law-and-order issue, but a symptom of how our cities are growing,” said Manager of the Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development (CHSD), Dr Esther Thontteh. “By addressing the root causes, we can reduce the need for crackdowns and create cities that work better for everyone.”
The ACRC’s vision is to build inclusive, productive, and sustainable African cities. As the controversy over Lagos estates continues to unfold, the organisation reaffirmed its commitment to deepening understanding of the complex issues at stake and to advocating for solutions that prioritise the needs of all urban residents.
The Co-Director of the CHSD, the lead agency implementing the ACRC programme in Lagos, Prof. Peter Elias, told The Guardian that some individuals have learned to exploit the fact that the government is often reactionary.
“In other climes, when it becomes clear where society is heading in this case, urban development, once an area begins to show signs of growth, authorities immediately put machinery in place: the necessary frameworks, legislation, and policies to guide that development,” he said.
Elias, who is also the ACRC lead researcher, stressed that the government must be proactive in urban development to curb illegal projects. In some cases, he noted, people have built without following approved plans, deliberately circumventing the law.
“This is a lesson for those governing our urban areas,” he added. “We should not wait for people’s actions before making decisions. That reactive approach is one of the root causes of informal settlements.”
The housing advocates urged the Lagos government to turn this crisis into a catalyst for reform by cutting approval timelines from months to weeks by simplifying requirements, digitising applications, and reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks.
They urged the government to work with traditional landowners in bringing their sales into the formal market through joint ventures, land pooling, or regularisation schemes, as well as invest in low-cost housing programmes, incentivise developers to build for low- and middle-income buyers, and expand mortgage access.
They also advocated strengthening urban governance by clarifying overlapping mandates between state agencies, improving transparency in land records, and introducing real-time monitoring to detect illegal developments early and engaging residents in decision-making to ensure planning rules reflect local realities and needs, as well as reducing the incentive to bypass the system.
