Every day in politics, it is said, matters and the next election is often prepared for, better still, won today. It is a long journey between now and 2027, but former Senate President Bukola Saraki, according to sources, is not taking chances in his quest to win back the state for his party and reposition himself for national politics.

The quest of former governor to ‘re-conquer’ Kwara State may have begun, as plans are allegedly afoot to court prominent members of All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state to join him in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

But the hurdles ahead are not the type that Oluwatobiloba Amusan easily hurdles past, as they are not sprint, but steeplechase. It is, therefore, only a political novice that will, at the moment in Kwara, fail to notice that the incumbent Governor, Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazak, holds the ace in the 57 years old North Central state.

AbdulRazak, who is also the second term governor of the state, is in firm control of happenings at the 10th state House of Assembly under the Speakership of Salihu Yakubu-Danladi, a young and dynamic politician from the North Senatorial district of the state.

The same story goes with Ojo Olayiwola Oyebode (Deputy Speaker), Oba Abdulkadir Magaji (House leader) and Abdulraheem Medinat Motunrayo (Deputy House Leader) and Kareem Ahmed Olayiwola, (Clerk).

According to a former chairman of the state’s chapter of the PDP, Kola Shittu, “we are politicians under our great leader, Bukola Saraki. If you insinuate that we are planning under cover to regain our lost grounds, you may be right. Every right thinking politicians will do a similar thing as well. But don’t expect me to disclose to you on pages of newspapers our real strategies for obvious reasons.”

Sources say that Saraki is allegedly waiting for a strain in relationship between the governor and one of his staunch supporters, Mallam Salihu Mustapha, who is currently, the Senator representing Kwara Central at the Senate.

The permutation is that the governor, who is largely believed to be interested in the seat of Mustapha come 2027, might fall out with the Senator. Mustapha, on his part, is said to be seeking the governorship slot of the party. However, the governor is not disposed to this, as he is alleged to have conceded the seat to the incumbent Speaker.

Justifying what is perceived as the governor’s position, an aide of his, who craved anonymity during a chat, said: “AbdulFatah Funsho Ahmed from Kwara South Senatorial district of the state completed his eight years as governor. By the year 2027, AbdulRazak from Kwara Central too would have completed his own tenure of two terms. So, for the sake of equity, the next governor should come from the remaining senatorial district, which is Kwara North.

“The most acceptable candidate for the post will be no other person but the incumbent Speaker. He is a forthright leader with exceptional leadership qualities and perfect understanding of the political chemistry of our dear state. I equivocally believe that our boss (AbdulRazak) is right if your rumoured support for the Speaker is correct.”

If this scenario plays out itself, it will only be natural for Senator Mustapha, the Ilorin-born high chief, ‘Turaki’, to look for an alternative political party to get his ambition realised.

The multi millionaire politician is believed to have played a major role during the second term bid of Governor AbdulRazak of the APC. Already, it is being touted that Saraki is allegedly making an overture to him.

According to Hajia Nimota Aduke Ibrahim, a staunch supporter of Saraki and former Commissioner for Education in Kwara in a chat with The Guardian in Ilorin, said, “our boss (Saraki) is a man of peace, that much we know of him. So, if Mustapha is being asked to pick the next ticket for Kwara Governorship under our great party, PDP, it will be a welcome development to us all. But don’t forget that he would have to contest with other aspirants first and win before we can settle for him as the candidate.”

If AbdulRazak loses Mustapha to another camp, as being speculated, considering that the Senator is from the same Zone as the governor, the need to fill the expected vacuum thus arises.

But beyond this permutation, it is alleged that in Ilorin, there is a cold war between the two indigenous people of the town that only a clever observer would notice. On one side of this divide is the monarchical heritage and on the other is the political class. The politically stronger side arguably has the bigger population of qualified voters above the other group. But what an average Ilorin person detests is for this dichotomy or ‘cold war’ to be used as electioneering weapon!

Besides, if the factor of Islam, the greatest chord that binds them together is considered, the voters will promptly settle for whosoever the religious leaders favour.

On the two issues, AbdulRazak appears more favoured compared to Mustapha on paper. Sources, however, disclosed that the two sons of the peaceful town are cleverly playing their game over the issue.

Also lurking behind in the political game are two other natives of the town said to be testing the water for the plum position come 2027. They are the former Minister of Planning, Professor Suleiman Olanrewaju Abubakar and ‘Daniyan’ of Ilorin, Kale Kawu.

The duo are believed to equally posses what it takes to govern the state if given opportunity to occupy the seat of power at Ahmadu Bello Way, Ilorin.

Therefore, dangerously lurking is Saraki, who according to The Guardian checks, is waiting for a slip in any of the sides to form an alliance with, to wrestle power from the incumbent during the crucial political year.

Already, the former governor has repositioned the PDP in the state to welcome would-be potentially aggrieved members from other political camps.

Prince Sunday Fagbemi, the state’s chairman of the ruling APC described the rumoured “cold war” in his party as the figment of the imagination of the reporter.

According to him, “APC in Kwara is one solid party under the leadership of our amiable governor and other top echelons within it. We have our Constitution that guides us and we shall always follow it religiously without any rancour. By now, it will be a distraction for us to start talking of horse trading as a party ahead of the year 2027. It is normal for people to aspire for offices; that’s the beauty of democracy. We are used to that and when we get to the bridge, we will effortlessly cross it.”

Another joker that Saraki may also use could be his alleged planned defection to the APC. Sources said that he is allegedly romancing with some top APC leaders at the national level to seal the arrangement.

But his former aide on Communications, Akintoba Fatigun, described this as laughable, noting that his boss has robust relationships with friends across political divides.

For the Chairman of the PDP in the state, Tunde Mohammed, “we are already a solid party not only in Kwara, but also at the national level. We have since repositioned the party after the last rounds of electrons. I can tell you that we are the most sought after party not only in Kwara but in Nigeria. Besides, why do you think it is normal for us to hope for a defection of members of other party before planning for our own victories? Our leader has his own plans outside your thinking. When that time comes you will see it.”

The Jagunmolu of Shao, a town in Moro Council of the state, Chief Stephen Wole Oke, who is also a staunch supporter of the governor, said he had allegedly in a letter in July 2018 warned Saraki against his planned defection from the ruling APC to PDP.

“If he is coming back to the APC now, what is he coming to do? APC is thriving without him, so, what is he coming to do there? It is time for our politicians to start embracing ideologies over egocentric interests to solidify our democracy,” Oke said.

For a teacher of Political Science in Kwara State University (KWASU), Malete, Moro Council of the state, who craved anonymity, “Saraki is a political fox you should not fight with bare hands. He is a snake you should not confront without potent weapons. He is like a proverbial cat with nine lives. If you underrate him as a politician, it is at your peril. He knows what he wants and he knows how to get it. He understands Kwaran politics more than most of his contemporaries. But my major fear for him is that he doesn’t at present wield any political power. On this development, AbdulRazak seems to be holding the ace, but that depends on how he uses it.”

Although the political scheming in Kwaran politics runs on, the greatest factor that may determine the eventual winner may be the candidates with greatest prowess to pull the trigger of war in the country’s poverty-driven election before and during the polls.