That Ondo State matters to President Bola Tinubu is an understatement, what will happen in the April primary of the party is what many are beginning to imagine, as the state remains the only one in Southwest of the country that the president does not have a firm grip of the local politics.

Last week’s (Wednesday, February 28, 2024) condolence visit of President Tinubu to the late Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu’s family was not just significant, but also an indication of where the former governor of Lagos may be heading ahead of the state’s All Progressives Congress ((APC) gubernatorial primary scheduled to hold in April.

Over 20 aspirants are said to be jostling for the party’s ticket. They include incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, immediate former Commissioner for Finance, Wale Akinterinwa, former Legal Adviser of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Olusola Oke and Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, who represents Ondo South in the Senate.

Others are former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Oladunni Odu; former member of the House of Representatives, Mayowa Akinfolarin; former member, who represented the State on the Governing Board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Olugbenga Edema; retired Director of Finance at the Nigerian Defence Academy, Olumide Ohunyeye.

Also angling for the governorship ticket are former Commissioner for the Environment in the state, Sola Ebisemi; the Executive Director (Engineering and Technical Services) at Niger Delta Power Holding Company Limited, Ifeoluwa Oyedele; APC National Vice Chair (South-west), Isaac Kekemeke; former President of the Nigeria Medical Association (NMA), Adedayo Faduyile; Paul Akintelure; Olusola Iji; Jimi Odimayo; Matthew Oyerinmade and Funmilayo Adekojo.

Why Tinubu Is Seen As Man In The Centre
The Guardian gathered that the intrigues in Ondo APC politics ahead of the April primary is because the President has been very interested in the state since 1999, but elections in Ondo have always not favoured him.

When the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) split into two in 2003, the Ondo AD, under late Governor Adebayo Adefarati, didn’t follow the camp of Tinubu. The late governor went with Afenifere and the party’s national chairman, Mojisola Akinfenwa, who died in 2019.

Tinubu also supported former governor of the state, Olusegun Mimiko in 2008, to reclaim his mandate from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) through the courts, hoping that Iroko, who contested and won under the platform of Labour Party (LP), would defect to Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN) from LP but Mimiko disappointed him and both parted ways.

In 2012, when Mimiko was running for second term, Tinubu brought all the known political heavyweights in Ondo State into ACN to oust Mimiko but he also failed.

Tinubu settled to anoint the late Akeredolu as the party’s candidate then in a manner that many considered controversial, which party members frowned at. The former President of Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) eventually lost the election to Mimiko.

In 2016, President Tinubu also expressed interest in the state’s politics by endorsing Mr. Segun Abraham as his choice aspirant to become the governor of Ondo but Akeredolu, who was also in the race then, but no longer in Tinubu’s camp, joined forces with the ‘Abuja group’, said to be directing events under the former President Muhammadu Buhari, to emerge the party’s candidate for Ondo APC in spite of Tinubu.

Again, Tinubu failed in his bid to gain inroad to Ondo politics in 2016. ASnd from that year, till his eventual demise, the late Governor Akeredolu played Ondo politics without Tinubu’s impact. Little wonder he got a second term and remained governor until his death.

The Guardian checks showed that with the demise of Akeredolu and the former governor of Lagos State now president, the political calculations may have changed.

The implications of Akeredolu’s death is that the Southwest leaders of APC, like Tinubu, Chiefs Bisi Akande, Segun Osoba and others, who have been looking forward to getting the party’s structure in Ondo now have everything at their disposal to determine what happens in the state’s chapter of APC.

Although the Wednesday visit was a condolence visit to Akeredolu’s family, it also showed a strong political signal that Tinubu has come to take charge of Ondo structure and politics and invariably the Southwest leadership of APC.

Aiyeditawa
It was learnt that President Tinubu may have seen in Aiyedatiwa somebody willing to help in fostering Asiwaju’s political hegemony in Ondo State.
Political commentators point to one factor as helping Aiyeditawa to be someone to be trusted. They said it was Akeredolu that brought Aiyedatiwa into Ondo politics but when the cabal in Akeredolu’s cabinet allegedly led by Akinterinwa, had inkling of how serious the late governor’s illness was and that he may not survive, they circled around him, to ensure he did not act, as demanded by the Constitution.Their plan, however, failed.

It was gathered that if not for the intervention of President Tinubu, the agenda to impeach Aiyedatiwa would have succeeded but the presidency deliberately stopped it.

The cabal had successfully turned Akeredolu’s mind against the governor and he was ready to remove Aiyedatiwa just as he did to his former deputy, Agboola Ajayi, whom Akeredolu removed in 2020.

All manner of efforts were made to frustrate Aiyedatiwa between September to December last year but it all failed until Akeredolu finally passed on December 27.

It was said that the only way to stop Akeredolu’s political hegemony in Ondo is to use Aiyedatiwa, who is perceived to be neutral in the state’s politics and with no structure.

Tinubu’s visit to Ondo goes beyond condolence. Recall that during the APC presidential primary in 2022, Akeredolu and his political structure did not support Tinubu. They supported the former Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo. As at that time, Aiyedatiwa was helpless and had no say in who Akeredolu and his loyalists supported during the presidential primary. He was seen as a neutral person by Tinubu and the Southwest leaders of APC.

Tinubu faced a lot of challenges during the presidential primary and he has been diplomatically dealing with those who antagonised him then. The presidency also sees Aiyedatiwa as someone who does not have any political background or inkling, who can be trusted to handle the political ideology of the former governor of Lagos, if entrusted with power.

For instance, it may be difficult for the Tinubu to trust other governorship aspirants, especially Oke, Akinterinwa and Ibrahim. They believe that the majority of the aspirants have had their inputs in Ondo politics and may possibly want to assert themselves contrary to the ideology of Tinubu if supported into power.

Oke
He is said to have a PDP background, which the Southwest APC leaders may not be comfortable with. He has also contested twice for Ondo gubernatorial race on different platforms.

Akinterinwa
Akinterinwa used to be one of the ardent followers of Tinubu before; his problem with the President may have started when he served under Mimiko as Finance Commissioner. He eventually left Mimiko’s government in 2008.

Ibrahim
Senator Ibrahim is considered to be an outsider in APC, who is assumed to be carrying his luck very far after he got the party’s senatorial ticket on a platter of gold. He is also said to be too independent minded to be given political leadership without much struggle. He recently opposed Tinubu’s choice of Senate president by supporting another candidate during the election of the leadership of Senate.

Others
The role played by some of the aspirants in 2016 against Segun Abraham, who happens to be the choice candidate of Tinubu for the gubernatorial primary of APC in Ondo is still hunting them. For instance, some of them colluded with the then Buhari led presidency to undermine the former governor of Lagos State, while others aligned with a former governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola, to contest the 2016 gubernatorial poll in Ondo on the platform of another party.

The Guardian learnt that a particular aspirant, who considered himself financially stronger and also close to Tinubu allegedly spent over two weeks recently in Abuja to see the president but he deliberately ignored him because of the role such aspirant had played in the past.

It is, therefore, glaring that what Tinubu did during his visit to Ondo and how he tactically cut off other governorship aspirants, was an indication of his body language as to where he is going.

The camaraderie between Tinubu and Aiyedatiwa during the visit also indicated the possible direction the presidency may go in April at the primary.
Another indication of where Tinubu may likely go was the interaction between him and Bola Ilori, one of the political protégées of Aregbesola at Ondo airport.

On alighting from the plane in Ondo, Tinubu was said to have asked Ilori, “where do you belong? And Ilori responded, pointing to Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, this is where I belong sir. Then Tinubu responded with a smile, “Lucky will bring you to see me.”

The inability of other aspirants to enter the tarmac to welcome Tinubu to Ondo was also another signal of who the president may possibly support in the coming primary. It is also interesting that if Mr. President had really wanted a level playing ground, he would have met with all the aspirants either at the party’s Secretariat in Ondo or elsewhere to encourage them but he didn’t do that. It is clear that Tinubu will never visit any state in such a circumstance without necessarily playing the politics of that state.

Political observers also read meaning to the way Tinubu thanked Aiyedatiwa for giving his former boss (Akeredolu) a befitting burial, which was probably a nod for the incumbent to continue.

Recall that Betty Anyanwu, the wife of Akeredolu, specifically thanked Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu for the role the Lagos State governor played in bringing back the body of her husband to Nigeria, a role Sanwo-Olu wouldn’t have played without a nod from Abuja to assist Aiyedatiwa for the successful burial of his boss.

Also significant to note is the role the leader of Yoruba socio-cultural body, Afenifere, Pa Reuben Fasoranti played during the scheming to impeach Aiyedatiwa.

The nonagenarian personally wrote to President Tinubu to wade into the matter, which perhaps prompted Tinubu’s intervention in the imbroglio as at then. That may have warranted Tinubu’s visit to Pa Fasoranti during the visit to Ondo, where the other aspirants were deliberately shut out.

Also fascinating was the recent visit of the Iyaloja General of Nigeria, Mrs Folashade Tinubu- Ojo, the daughter of Tinubu, to Governor Aiyedatiwa, which was tantamount to endorsing the incumbent.

It was also discovered that the Southwest governors of APC are solidly supporting Aiyedatiwa, whom they perceived as a cool headed person and a loyal party member.

If indeed the current equation did not change between now and April, Aiyedatiwa stands a good chance of winning the ticket and with a possible opportunity of retaining power in November.