Bolstering Nigerian and German bilateral relations

Safeguarding sovereign national interests and a pro-African stance are mutually reinforcing philosophies in Nigeria’s foreign policy. There is a subsisting ideological nexus between that thesis, established upon the country’s October 1, 1960 Independence, and an avowed determination to collaborate with all countries upon the premise of cooperation, equality, friendship, mutual gains, and respect.

Indisputably, Nigeria’s first Prime Minister’s speech at the UN General Assembly on October 7, 1960 emphasises that point: “it is the desire of Nigeria… to remain on friendly terms with all nations…Nigeria hopes to work with other African States for the progress of Africa and to assist in bringing all African territories to a state of responsible independence.”

Demonstrably, Nigeria’s foreign policy is therefore partly exemplified, by the country’s proactive participation in over forty United Nations, African Union, and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) peace-keeping missions; co-creation of ECOWAS in 1975; resilient support for pro-Independence movements across Africa in the struggle against apartheid in Angola, Namibia, Rhodesia (Zimbabwe), South Africa through the 1960s/1990s; establishment of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM), which aims to engage non-domiciled citizens in national development, etc.

It is evident in Nigeria’s pragmatic membership of the Non-Aligned Movement (established in 1955), and greenlighting opportunities for membership of BRICs, G20 and other geostrategic bilateral, multilateral, quadrilateral and trilateral partnerships. Nigerian German bilateral relations therefore comes into sharper focus given the strategic recalibration, and prioritisation, of mutually beneficial interests traversing artificial intelligence, cultural exchange programmes, education, optimally harnessing renewable energy, healthcare, infrastructure development, knowledge transfer, technology, security, inter alia.

Whilst German influence in what constitutes present day Nigeria, predates the latter’s Independence, the unexclusive focus is the period 1960 to present. Indeed, the constitutional arrangements in both nations bear interesting resemblances in that both countries are living, albeit imperfectly-formed, multiparty-democracies; operating the federal system of government.

Just as the Northern and Southern Protectorates, with different cultures, mores, legal and political structures, were amalgamated in 1914 to form Nigeria under British colonial rule; ideologically communist East Germany; and West Germany, a capitalist liberal democracy, were reunited on October 3, 1990, following the collapse of the Berlin Wall, and the consequential fall of communism, to create the Federal Republic of Germany.

On economics, Germany remains a key global player and a member of the Group of Seven (G7) richest countries in the world. These include Canada, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States; and the European Union as a so-called “non-enumerated” or “eighth” member, without the right to chair or host G7 summits, but, nevertheless, possessing all the rights and obligations of enumerated members. Realpolitik? Totally! As at 2024, the United States has the largest gross domestic product (GDP) amongst the G7 ($29.2 trillion); and is the world’s largest economy, outperforming its closest economic rival, China ($18.2 trillion GDP), within the same period.

Amongst the G7, against a 2024 baseline, Germany has the second largest GDP ($4.7 trillion) after the United States. With a population of approximately 780 million persons, circa ten per cent of global population, the G7 exercises approximately fifty percent of global nominal net wealth and thirty percent of global GDP, by purchasing power parity as at 2024. The inference therefore is that whilst Nigeria should maintain effective linkages with the G7, other nations, and blocs, the geostrategic and geoeconomic logic of reinforcing mutually beneficial relations with Germany on multiple levels is incontrovertible.

After South Africa, Nigeria is Germany’s second largest trading partner in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Trading Economics asserts that in 2023, Germany exported items worth $922 million to Nigeria, comprising machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, electrical equipment, plastics etc. Within the same period, Nigeria exported $952 million worth of items to Germany mostly, crude oil, distillation products, mineral fuels, cocoa, fruits and grain et al; thereby creating a net trade imbalance of $30 million.

Scratching beneath the surface, is the perennial challenge of power supply crisis in Nigeria, with retrogressive effects on households, businesses, manufacturing productive capacity, and lasting economic development. Multiple impediments, not least excessive bureaucracy, insufficient investment, obsolescence, opaque financial models, outright sabotage, non-performance, weak programme and project management, discipline, compound the energy crisis.

According to the Association of Power Generating Companies (APGC), Nigeria’s national grid collapsed 162 times through 2013 and 2024. This is against the backdrop of a Federal Government $486 million facility from the International Development Association (IDA) in 2018; a World-Bank $750 million Distributed Access Renewable Scale-up (DARES) loan in 2023; and African Development Bank (AfDB) $500 million debt in 2024, to transform the country’s electricity infrastructure and cleaner energy.

CEIC, an economic data analytics firm, asserts that Nigeria’s power generation capacity as at June 2024 was 8,330 Gigawatt hours (GWh), whilst South Africa’s in the same year was 19, 897 GWh. Thus, South Africa, with a population of circa 63 million people generated more than twice Nigeria’s power output, yet Nigeria population exceeds 222 million people according to the World Bank. In 2023 alone, Israel, a country of approximately 9.7 million (less than the population of Lagos State!) people generated 76,586 GWh of power, more than four times Nigeria’s and a micro-fraction of the latter’s population. Germany, in 2024, generated 140 Terrawatt hours (TWh) of renewable power and, as far back as 2021, generated 20,300 GWh of power.

Therefore, there is a patently valid argument for Nigeria gaining from German expertise in transforming the power supply sector, whilst addressing the fundamental problems earlier identified. It is upon this basis that Nigeria and Germany executed the strategically important bilateral Presidential Power Initiative (PPI) in 2018. The PPI seeks to expand Nigeria’s power grid, utilising German Siemens equipment, substantially train Nigerian engineers, and upgrade Nigeria’s power transmission and distribution by 2025.

Beyond the power sector, Germany plays an important role in reshaping Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, recycling and the establishment of special economic zones. Key examples in that connection are the BASF (a leading German chemical firm with a turnover of Euros 68.9 billion in 2023) technology laboratory in the Lagos Free Trade Zone; and a compact to establish a waste treatment infrastructure facility, which will conserve 1.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over the next fifteen years.

In agriculture, the German Development Ministry (BMZ), is building capacity with local partners, and agro-based value chains, whilst providing loans to agricultural businesses in Nigeria. Over 250,000 have benefited from a mix of these programmes.

Mutually beneficial exchange programmes also afford superb opportunities for deepening bilateral relations between both countries not least on greener and cleaner energy and technology enhancement. A point reinforced by the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on his trip to the University of Lagos in October 2023. Plus, the German Ambassador to Nigeria, Mrs Annett Gunther, asserts that there are approximately 4,000 Nigerian students currently studying and working in Germany, in addition to over 1,000 scholarships provided to Nigerians annually. This is in addition to approximately 80, 000 Nigerians studying and working in Germany and adding significant value to the country’s economic growth. That the German President, Frank Walter-Steinmeier, visited Nigeria in December 2024, after the visit of the Chancellor barely 12 months earlier, symbolises a determination to deepen bilateral relations.

Germany has also demonstrated goodwill and a positive policy inclination by returning scores of Benin cultural artefacts looted from the Royal Benin Palace in 1897, under the nine-year (1888-1897) reign, of Oba Ovonramwen (1857-1914); following the British colonial invasion; in the European imperialists’ scramble and partition of Africa (1881 and 1914). Nigeria did not exist at the time so, it was entirely proper for the artefacts to be returned to the rightful owner, the reigning monarch Oba of Benin, Ewuare II, applying the consanguinity principle.

In strikingly poignant remarks, the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, stated on December 20, 2022 in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital that “it was wrong to take them, and it was wrong to keep them.” Furthermore, Germany’s Goethe-Institute, founded in Lagos in 1962, has provided an excellent educational grounding for students and some of Nigeria’s most celebrated and internationally recognised artistes; just as GIZ, Germany’s development agency, has operated in Nigeria since 1974, with active engagement in agriculture, education, regional integration, rural electrification, security and sustainable development.

To end, deeper, broader and mutually beneficial relations between Nigeria and Germany will stand both nations in good stead over the coming years and decades. That said, there needs to be more tangible results concerning the pivotal PPI launched in 2018 and both countries should prioritise the delivery agreed outputs (25,000 megawatts of electricity) on Nigeria’s power transmission and distribution upgrades by 2025, which undoubtedly, is no mean feat!

Second, in policy terms, Nigeria should seize the bull by the horns by privatising the power sector along the lines undertaken in the telecommunications sector with reasonable adaptations, for the simple reason that market competition drives innovation, efficiency, and productivity. It is for government to set the policy framework and for proven enterprise to execute and deliver.

Third, the deployment of green hydrogen, solar, and wind power ought to be catalysed in Nigeria. German expertise and knowledge transfer will be hugely significant for mutually beneficial economic gains and especially as Nigeria aspires to diversify its overdependence of crude oil exports as the main source of foreign exchange earnings.

Finally, heightened insecurity and terrorism in the country remains a significant investment risk, which Nigeria must convincingly address!

Ojumu is the Principal Partner at Balliol Myers LP, a firm of legal practitioners and strategy consultants in Lagos, Nigeria, and the author of The Dynamic Intersections of Economics, Foreign Relations, Jurisprudence and National Development.