While the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and China will reshape parts of the global economy, Africa’s limited exposure, growing regional integration, strengthened macro fundamentals, and institutional support suggest that the overall risks to the continent’s trade and other activities remain contained, the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has said.
 
Recently, China and the U.S. released a joint statement following their economic and trade Meeting in Geneva, pledging to implement key measures by May 14, 2025, mainly reducing reciprocal tariffs targeted at each other.

The announcement has sparked global interest, with many anticipating a possible de-escalation in the ongoing tariff-driven trade tensions between the two economic giants.
 
The bank said that while this development is significant for global markets, it would have little to no direct impact on Africa for several reasons.
 
“First, Africa’s direct trade exposure to the U.S. is approximately five per cent and more to China at a little over 12 per cent. Even when combined, this 17 per cent is only slightly higher than Africa’s intra-continental trade, which stands at 16 per cent. African exports to the UAE are even higher than to the USA. This reflects a more diversified and regionally integrated trade profile than is often assumed.
 
“Also, just 11 African countries currently face U.S. tariffs above 20 per cent, and just two of those export more than 10 per cent of their goods to the U.S. In most cases, key exports such as oil, minerals and agricultural products are already exempt from punitive duties. Over 80 per cent of African nations send less than five per cent of their exports to the U.S., further limiting potential fallout,” the bank noted.
 
It further stated that among the few countries more exposed to U.S. tariffs, most have viable alternatives, regional markets, South-South trade partners or commodity diversification that allow them to adapt.
 
These pivot pathways act as a buffer against economic disruption.
  
“Furthermore, this is a supply chain adjustment, not a collapse in global demand. Both the U.S. and China will continue to require goods from each other but may source them differently, opening space for alternative suppliers. US consumers will not stop demanding iPhones, for example, so demand for African exports used in their production won’t stop due to tariffs. Rather, they will seek them elsewhere. So, rather than Africa supplying China with the raw materials to produce them as some did previously, they may now supply the alternative market, now tasked with the responsibility to produce them to meet that demand.
  
“This suggests that African raw materials used in global production chains remain in demand; what may change is the route to market, not the market itself. At the same time, many African exports have structural and security dimensions, making them inelastic and consequently may continue to be demanded regardless. For example, gold benefits as a haven asset during uncertainty while cobalt and lithium are critical for EV batteries, which are key in the whole energy transformation agenda, which doesn’t immediately evaporate due to tariffs,” it explained.
 
It further noted that several African countries entered 2025 with improved fundamentals, including slowing inflation, fiscal consolidation, credit rating upgrades, stronger growth and renewed access to capital markets.
Intra-African trade, it said, is also gaining momentum, adding to internal resilience.