Heightened tension has emerged across Nigeria’s aviation and travel industry as the United States moves to enforce new visa restrictions on Nigerian nationals from 1 January 2026.
Experts in the sector said that this would, unfortunately, lead to a sharp decline in passenger traffic on the Nigeria–U.S. routes.
The visa measures, which affect both immigrant and non-immigrant categories, have already triggered uncertainty among intending travellers, with airlines and travel operators warning that reduced approvals and longer processing timelines could significantly impact flight demand.
There are two United States carriers—United Airlines and Delta Air Lines—operating scheduled direct flight services into Nigeria.
The two airlines jointly operate 17 weekly frequencies between Nigeria and the U.S. and shared 207,340 passengers between each other in 2024, according to the executive summary on international and domestic flight operations 2024, obtained from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA).
For instance, Delta Air Lines operates 14 weekly frequencies into Nigeria with Lagos–Atlanta and Lagos–New York routes, seven weekly frequencies each.
The airline ferried about 160,399 passengers between the two countries in 2024, according to statistics obtained from the NCAA.
Also, United Airlines operates three weekly flights into Lagos airport from Washington–Dulles.
For its 2024 service, the airline transported 47,340 passengers between the two countries.
Commenting on the issue, Gbenga Onitilo, Managing Director of Travelden, a subsidiary of Finchglow Holdings Ltd, in an interview with The Guardian, said that the development was bound to ripple through airlines operating direct services between Nigeria and the United States.
Onitilo explained that visa uncertainty, reduced demand and elongated processing cycles would hit passenger load factors and weaken route economics for airline operators.
He emphasised that transatlantic flights are capital-intensive and rely on strong, predictable passenger flows, particularly from business travellers, students and members of the diaspora.
Onitilo expressed that any sustained drop in demand could force airlines to reconsider frequencies, aircraft deployment or long-term route sustainability.
He added that the visa ban highlights deeper diplomatic challenges whose consequences are now spilling into commercial air travel and cross-border mobility.
He compared Nigeria’s situation with that of Mali, which recently faced similar U.S. visa sanctions over its handling of the repatriation of nationals ordered for removal under U.S. immigration law.
According to him, Mali adopted a firm but strategic response, including reciprocal visa measures, while addressing the underlying technical issues of identity verification and acceptance of returnees.
He said, “It is no longer news that tighter U.S. visa measures affecting Nigerian nationals will ripple into airlines operating direct U.S.–Nigeria routes. Reduced travel demand, visa uncertainty and prolonged processing cycles directly affect passenger numbers and the commercial viability of these routes.
“That clarity of response led to the lifting of the U.S. visa restrictions on Mali. The episode demonstrated how effective diplomacy could limit economic fallout. Nigeria has significant leverage through its market size, strategic relevance and passenger volumes on international routes, yet continues to experience losses from weak diplomatic coordination.
“Visa sanctions are not lifted by outrage or silence. They are resolved through coherent diplomacy, reciprocal signalling and fixing the trigger points.”
He declared that the situation also exposed weaknesses in Nigeria’s diplomatic engagement, which he said was now translating into economic and mobility losses.
Also, the Director, Research, Zenith Travels, Olumide Ohunayo, in an interview with The Guardian, said that, like every other country which had placed a visa ban on Nigeria, the Nigerian carriers would be the major losers of the ban.
According to him, the foreign-established carriers, either operating directly or indirectly to the U.S., would have lesser pressure due to their arrays of networks and status, but he noted that at present, Nigeria does not have any carrier on the U.S. route.
He explained that the visa ban would lead to a reduction in the number of passengers flying to the U.S., while the sector’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also drop.
He added, “Also, the travel agencies’ finances will be hit hard. The one out is not by retaliation. Just as we are collaborating with the U.S. now to fight insurgents, we have to employ some diplomats to engage the U.S., ensure we are off the list.
“There is a need to participate, there is a need to engage the U.S. to ensure that we get a favourable part of the stick from the U.S. government. If Ghana is doing the same and they are not getting this backlash from the U.S. government, we can also do the same.”
The U.S. is set to begin a partial suspension of visa issuance to Nigerians from 1 January 2026, following a new presidential proclamation aimed at strengthening border and national security.
The U.S. Mission in Nigeria announced recently that the restriction would take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time in accordance with Presidential Proclamation 10998, titled ‘Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States’.
According to the mission, Nigeria is one of 19 countries affected by the measure. Others listed are Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Dominica, Gabon, The Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, Tonga, Venezuela, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
