The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow between 4.0 and 4.5 per cent in 2026.

In its review of the Nigerian economy in 2025 and outlook for 2026, the centre noted that its 2026 economic outlook for Nigeria is one of cautious optimism.
It stated that with reform momentum sustained, Nigeria is expected to transition more decisively from stabilisation to growth, supported by continued moderation in inflation and stronger non-oil sector performance.
The document, signed by the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre, Dr Muda Yusuf, observed that 2025 marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory following the turbulence associated with the early phase of reforms, adding that exchange-rate stability emerged as the most visible achievement in the year, with the naira largely trading within the N1,440 – N1,500/US$ band.

“Periodic marginal appreciation strengthened business confidence, eased imported inflation, and restored predictability to pricing, contracting and investment planning,” it said.
CPPE also noted that inflation decelerated sharply from 24.48 per cent in January to about 14.45 per cent by November 2025.
The slowdown was supported by currency stability, easing logistics pressures, and improving supply conditions.

“Several food items and imported consumer goods recorded outright price declines, contributing to improved consumer sentiment and reduced price volatility,” it added.
However, the centre observed that despite macroeconomic stabilisation, federal fiscal performance remained weak.
According to CPPE, debt-service obligations continued to constrain fiscal space, undermining budget execution.

Revenue underperformance persisted, largely reflecting sub-optimal oil sector performance.
In contrast, it said, sub-national governments recorded relatively stronger fiscal outcomes.
“Improved liquidity, stronger internally generated revenue (IGR) performance, and better capital project execution enabled more tangible delivery of infrastructure and social services across several states,” it noted.

Looking ahead to 2026, CPPE stated that despite the improving trajectory, several downside risks persist.
These include insecurity, which continues to constrain agriculture, logistics, and investment; fiscal performance sensitivity to oil shocks; high power, energy, and logistics costs, which will continue to weigh on real-sector productivity; and debt service — estimated at over N15 trillion in the 2026 appropriation (about 50 per cent of projected revenue) — which will continue to constrain fiscal space.
Other possible risks identified by CPPE include geopolitical tensions, which could affect trade flows, commodity prices, and capital movements; fiscal and political uncertainties in the pre-election year, which could heighten risks; and emerging resistance to the new tax laws, which may undermine tax revenue expectations for 2026.

CPPE concluded that overall, 2025 laid a solid foundation of macroeconomic stability, making the outlook for 2026 reassuring, with expectations of stronger growth, easing inflation, improving investor confidence, and a gradual shift towards more inclusive expansion.
“If reform momentum is sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed, 2026 could mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards,” it stated.