Equities swing, bitcoin hits record as traders weigh Trump 2.0

Asian equities fluctuated Thursday, while the dollar held gains and bitcoin hit a fresh record as markets try to ascertain the consequences of a second Donald Trump presidency after he pledged to cut taxes and ramp up tariffs with an eye on China.

The so-called Trump Trade went into overdrive Wednesday as it emerged that the tycoon would return to the White House after beating Democrat Kamala Harris, while his Republican Party gained control of the Senate and looked set to hold onto the House of Representatives.

The decisive win is expected to pave the way for a series of business-friendly measures such as tax cuts and deregulation, though analysts warn that such moves — along with the pledge to impose duties on imports — could relight inflation.

The prospect of higher inflationary pressure could complicate matters for Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell as he tries to guide the economy to a soft landing while bringing prices under control.

The central bank is expected to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction on Thursday, but there are now questions over the chances of another next month, and the outlook for the new year.

“Those discussions might have to wait (until) a subsequent meeting and encompass four issues,” said National Australia Bank’s Tapas Strickland.

“Does the election result lead to meaningful changes for economic demand or inflation that warrant a different policy path?; have jitters about job-market deterioration been overstated?; where is inflation headed?; and what is the right level for rates, anyway?”

Still, economists at Citi wrote in a client note ahead of Election Day: “The December rate cut decision will depend on labor market data and we expect a further softening to lead to a 50-basis-point rate cut.”

After a mixed day on Wednesday, Asian stock investors continued to tread carefully.

Tokyo edged down with Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Manila, but Shanghai, Singapore and Taipei rose.

That came after a blockbuster day on Wall Street, where all three main indexes hit new highs, led by a 3.6 percent spike in the Dow.

With Trump expected to once again set his sights on trade, observers said that will be a key issue for Asian governments, and particularly China after Washington and Beijing butted heads on numerous occasions during his first term.

“The primary concern will be around tariffs and trade restrictions, which will have some impact but have been somewhat factored in,” said Joshua Crabb and Colin Graham at asset manager Robeco.

“The offset to this will likely be a more aggressive policy response in Asia, both fiscally and monetarily.

“The first indication of this will be stimulus in China, with the (National People’s Congress) scheduled to finalise on 8 November.”

Traders are awaiting the end on Friday of a Chinese government meeting to hammer out a stimulus for the world’s number two economy, with expectations for hundreds of billions of dollars to help local authorities and support for banks to boost lending.

On currency markets, the dollar held its gains against its peers after surging on the back of Trump’s victory as rate cut bets are pared back and Treasury yields rise.

Bitcoin touched a new high just above $77,475 on optimism about the outlook for cryptocurrencies after the president-elect said on the campaign trail that he would make the United States the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world”.

– Key figures around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.4 percent at 39,321.87 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 20,525.33

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,391.22

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 154.40 yen from 154.62 yen on Wednesday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0727 from $1.0732

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2889 from $1.2880

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.23 pence from 83.30 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.4 percent at $71.96 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $74.29 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 3.6 percent at 43,729.93 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,166.68 (close)