Nigeria’s recently declared National Security Emergency may fail to deliver lasting peace unless it is complemented by state policing reforms and the institutional deployment of forest guards to reclaim ungoverned spaces, according to a new report by public policy think-tank Nextier.
The report warns that although President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s declaration of a National Security Emergency on 26 November 2025 sent a strong political signal, its current structure is “in danger of becoming a kinetic stopgap rather than a transformative security strategy” if it continues to rely largely on troop expansion.
Authored by governance and peacebuilding expert at Nextier, Dr Ndidi (Anyanwu) Njoku, the analysis argues that insecurity in Nigeria has become increasingly mobile, economically driven and rooted in governance vacuums—dynamics that cannot be reversed by recruitment-heavy or reactive security responses alone.
“The evidence is clear: insecurity is no longer confined to traditional epicentres,” the report states, noting that armed groups now adapt faster than the state’s reactive deployments.
The report noted that without reforms that prioritise intelligence integration, community trust, economic stabilisation and gender inclusion, Nigeria risks repeating cycles of overstretch and reactive security operations.
To avert this outcome, the report outlines policy recommendations anchored on a new national security paradigm, calling for a shift away from force-based responses toward intelligence dominance, territorial governance and community partnership.
Central to this approach is the urgent establishment of integrated intelligence fusion centres linking the Department of State Services (DSS), police and military intelligence with state-level security actors.
These centres, the report says, should connect real-time threat detection directly to rapid-response units to enable prevention rather than post-attack reaction.
Another major recommendation is denying armed groups access to ungoverned spaces, just as the report calls for the institutionalisation of forest guards and their integration with border security and agro-ranger units to regain control of forest corridors and rural sanctuaries used by non-state armed groups.
At the grassroots level, Nextier urges stronger Local Government Area security coordination, revitalisation of traditional justice systems and the expansion of community policing to resolve land and resource disputes before they escalate into violence.
Human rights compliance and transparent oversight, the report adds, must be treated as operational necessities rather than optional safeguards, warning that abuses and shrinking civic space erode public trust, weaken intelligence flows and ultimately fuel insecurity.
On policing reform, Nextier supports the President’s proposal to amend the Police Act to allow state policing but cautions that it must be pursued as a sequenced institutional reform, not an emergency fix.
The report stresses the need for enforceable federal standards, mandatory intelligence sharing and independent oversight mechanisms to prevent abuse.
The report concludes that emergency security measures must be paired with targeted socioeconomic interventions, including livelihood programmes, rural development initiatives and reintegration pathways for at-risk youth, to reduce recruitment into armed groups and prevent relapse into violence.
