Q2 GDP: Nigerian economy moving towards stronger recovery – CPPE

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has applauded the growth recorded by the Nigerian economy in the second quarter of 2025, describing it as a clear statement that Nigeria’s economy is moving beyond stabilisation toward stronger recovery.

The Centre, in its policy brief on the second quarter 2025 GDP report released last week by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), however, said that to translate this growth into jobs, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity, the focus must shift to unlocking productivity in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and trade—the sectors that touch the lives of most Nigerians.

Nigeria’s economy strengthened its recovery momentum in the second quarter of 2025, with real GDP expanding by 4.23 per cent year-on-year. This represents a notable acceleration from 3.13 per cent in Q1 and a stronger performance compared to 3.48 per cent in Q2 2024. CPPE, in the statement signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the data confirms that the economy is not only on a recovery trajectory but is also gaining traction, despite lingering structural and macroeconomic challenges.

It said that with consistent reform execution, improved governance, and private sector collaboration, Nigeria can transform its present growth momentum into a more resilient, inclusive, and job-rich economy.

The Centre, however, regretted that even though the second-quarter growth was driven essentially by the oil and gas sector, which posted a growth of 20.46 per cent, up from just 1.87 per cent in Q1, the sector’s contribution to the real GDP was a negligible 4.05 per cent, underscoring the need for Nigeria to rely on non-oil sectors for inclusive and broad-based economic transformation.

It acknowledged the role played by policy reforms, governance overhaul, and market tailwinds in the dramatic growth of the oil and gas sector, noting that the incentives for deep offshore exploration, gas commercialisation, and investor-friendly regulations are yielding results, while the leadership reset at NNPC appears to have delivered operational efficiency, improved transparency, and production gains.

It notes that the 2.82 per cent growth in agriculture, a significant leap from 0.07 per cent in Q1, reflects the impact of government input support programmes, better rainfall patterns, and subnational agricultural interventions.

“However, agriculture still faces serious productivity constraints: poor rural infrastructure, low mechanisation, weak access to finance, and security challenges that disrupt farming activities. Without addressing these, the sector’s potential for food security, employment, and raw material supply will remain unrealised,” it said.

For the manufacturing sector, which slowed slightly to 1.60 per cent, CPPE said this highlights the continued pressure of high production costs, logistics inefficiencies, FX volatility, and competition from cheaper imports.

“Within industry, however, there were bright spots. Oil refining output jumped from 11.5 per cent to 15.78 per cent, signalling progress in domestic refining capacity and import substitution.

“Growth in construction also moderated to 5.25 per cent, suggesting slower execution of infrastructure projects—likely due to delayed budget implementation and funding bottlenecks,” it noted.

It said the services sector remains the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing 56.53 per cent of GDP.

According to CPPE, the Q2 2025 GDP figures represent one of Nigeria’s strongest quarterly growth performances in recent years.

“However, sustaining and deepening this momentum requires urgent structural interventions, including: reducing energy and logistics costs to improve competitiveness of manufacturers and agro-processors, accelerating infrastructure investment to unlock value chains in agriculture and industry, and expanding affordable credit access for MSMEs and farmers to boost production.

“Others are promoting local content and import substitution to strengthen domestic capacity and reduce vulnerability to external shocks, as well as enhancing policy consistency and investment climate to sustain private sector confidence and attract long-term capital,” CPPE recommended.

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