Sudan protests biggest threat yet to Bashir: analysts

Deadly protests that have grown across Sudan in recent weeks are the biggest threat to President Omar al-Bashir’s iron-fisted rule since he swept to power in a 1989 coup, analysts said.

Clashes have killed at least 19 people since demonstrations began two weeks ago, initially in protest against bread prices tripling but rapidly evolving into anti-government rallies.

Human rights group Amnesty International has put the death toll at 37 and UN chief Antonio Guterres has called for an investigation.

“These demonstrations and the anger that animates them are much stronger than any we’ve seen in recent years,” said Eric Reeves, a senior fellow at Harvard University who has been tracking Sudan’s politics and economy for two decades.

“The shortage of bread … and outrageous price increases is perhaps the greatest source of immediate popular anger, and there is nothing that can alleviate the problem,” Reeves told AFP.

Protests erupted when the government raised the price of a small loaf of bread from one Sudanese pound to three (from about two to six US cents).

Several buildings and offices of Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) were torched in the initial violence.

Some protesters have also adopted the slogan used in the 2011 Arab Spring — “the people want the fall of the regime”.

Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges connected to a 15-year-old rebellion in the western region of Darfur, came to power in an Islamist-backed coup that toppled prime minister Sadiq al-Madhi and his democratically elected government.

Since then the former general has ruled the African country with a tight grip, using the feared National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) to curb dissent.

NISS agents regularly arrest opposition leaders, activists and journalists who voice anti-regime opinions.

Dilapidated economy
Bashir, 75, took control at the height of a brutal north-south civil war that only ended in 2005. South Sudan broke away in 2011 to become the world’s newest nation state.

Conflicts with rebels in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan have killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions.

Analysts say these conflicts and a failure to boost agriculture in a country once renowned as a major grain producer have left Sudan’s economy in a shambles, despite Washington lifting a two-decade trade embargo in 2017.

The secession of the south — which took with it three quarters of Sudan’s oil reserves — has triggered an acute foreign exchange shortage.

Inflation has soared to 70 percent while shortages of bread and fuel have hit the capital and other cities.

“The economy has been collapsing for almost a decade … but the regime functions as a kleptocracy and maintains power only through national budgets that are wildly skewed to military and security service expenses,” said Reeves.

“I think the anger we’ve seen will not dissipate.”

The current protests are more widespread than those in January 2018 and September 2013.

They began in outlying towns and cities, which had been left with a particularly acute shortage of flour, after supplies were diverted to Khartoum.

But despite the attempt to stockpile reserves, the protests spread to the capital.

“The government and the ruling party were caught by surprise when protests erupted outside Khartoum,” said Khalid Tijani, editor of economic weekly Elaff.

“It just showed the ruling NCP how isolated it is.”

After three days without major demonstrations, the opposition and activists called for fresh protests on Friday.

Uncertain future
The protests are the biggest challenge Bashir has faced, according to Tijani.

“The demonstrations have weakened his position,” he said. “President Bashir was about to get consitutional amendments to permit him to run for the presidency again in 2020, but he will now have to reconsider that.”

Reeves said even middle- and lower-ranking army officers are “generally appalled” at the country’s economic and political situation.

He said it is difficult to see how much overall political support Bashir or the NCP still has.

“Opposition parties and those that have expediently sided with the NCP in the past seem to be trying to put some distance between themselves and the regime,” Reeves said.

About 22 political groups close to the government have asked for Bashir to step down.

Although a change of regime is still unlikely in the immediate future, a European diplomat said Bashir will now be under permanent pressure.

“The decisive factor will be the attitude of the security apparatus, especially the army,” the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

“If the repression becomes too harsh, the army won’t allow it and that’s why the current movement of protests is potentially momentous.”

Bashir has no answers for Sudan’s economic problems, said Reeves.

“He faces open and growing popular opposition … All this makes Bashir’s future highly uncertain.”