Aliko Dangote recently accused a ‘cabal’ of sabotaging Nigeria’s path to energy independence, an allegation widely understood to be aimed at independent petrol marketers and depot owners.

The accusations dominated headlines, but they raised deeper questions: can his refinery, long positioned as the solution to Nigeria’s petrol crisis, actually deliver on its promises? The real challenge lies in the uncertainty surrounding his refinery’s actual capacity.

When a single entity positions itself as the saviour of a country’s energy needs, scrutiny is not just reasonable but also urgent. Dangote has claimed his refinery can meet domestic demand. Yet, recently released data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) suggests otherwise. So, who should we, the people, believe? More importantly, why are we supposed to take anyone’s word for it?

To be clear, a functioning refinery in Nigeria, especially at the scale of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, is a monumental achievement. After decades of exporting crude to re-import refined petrol, the promise of a self-sufficient petroleum sector is intoxicating. But, intoxication clouds judgment. Right now, we, the public, are told–almost compelled–to celebrate a victory that feels incomplete. The refinery’s operations are opaque. There are no audits, there have been no regulatory inspections, and the output figures remain vague.

The monopoly question
In the shadows of Dangote’s accusation against “the cabal”, there is a quieter narrative taking shape: we risk swapping one cabal for another. Do Nigerians want a single refinery to dominate the market even when it’s wildly ambitious? Or do we want a system where multiple players, including importers, can compete to keep prices fair and low? The answer to me seems obvious.
Deregulation was meant to break monopolies in Nigeria’s oil sector. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) promised a competitive, market-driven system. Yet today, we’re debating whether to allow others import licenses, simply because the country’s sole refinery may not meet local demand. NMDPRA data already hints at shortfalls. If the Dangote Refinery is struggling to supply the market, why stop others from filling the gap? And why is there secrecy around its actual capacity?

I must admit, a part of me wants to root for the refinery; it represents Nigerian ambition writ large. But, I also wonder what happens if Nigerians put their eggs in one basket? Monopolies, even when they are well-intentioned, breed complacency, prices tend upwards, quality slips, and then in the event of a crisis, there is no Plan B.

A deficit in transparency
Trust is earned through transparency, not press releases and definitely not by comments meant to put pressure on market competitors after a meeting with the President of Nigeria.

Last month, I spoke with a small-scale petrol distributor in Abeokuta. His grievance was not with the Dangote refinery, but with price and supply uncertainty. He is not alone, people are wondering how they plan their business without being able to plan long-term for profits and with a specific supplier.

Dangote’s reluctance to open up his books to regulators is puzzling. If the refinery is truly capable of meeting local demand, why not prove it? Why not invite the NMDPRA to verify production figures? Why not publish third-party audits? Speculation is fueled by secrecy, and in the absence of clarity, public confidence falters. It invites rumours of underperformance. Worse, opponents of the refinery might allege political manoeuvring to sideline market competitors.

We need to address today’s elephant in the room. Global oil prices are falling, and this should be a moment of relief for Nigerians. But, relief can only materialise when markets are allowed to function. If the refinery can’t efficiently scale and import licences are blocked, consumers lose twice. First, from scarcity and then from the missed opportunity to buy cheaper petrol abroad.

Deregulations Drama
The government is in the middle of a tricky balancing act. On one hand, it must support a homegrown $20 billion investment that could redefine the Nigerian economy. On the other hand, it must uphold the principles of deregulation it has publicly touted or risk coming across as a hypocrite.

The government can’t claim to champion free markets while quietly backing a single player by providing material and political support. In a fully deregulated market, the refinery would sink or swim based on merit. If it’s able to produce affordable high quality fuel, it thrives, not only inside Nigeria, but from global demand. If not, other players can step in.

However, shielding the refinery from scrutiny or restricting imports, the government undermines the system it claims to defend.

In November last year, the price of cement was N7,500. Today, it is N10,000. This is a 33 per cent increase in an industry that is supposed to be deregulated. Nigeria’s cement industry is dominated by a single player, and the increase in price amidst a housing crisis shows just how dangerous a monopoly or the appearance of one is for Nigeria and Nigerians at this stage.

The risks are not hypothetical. This is a cautionary tale. When the petroleum refinery was seemingly selling petrol below the global market prices and undercutting market competitors, rumours began circulating that this was funded by higher cement sales. In the long term, where there are no market competitors, Nigerians will ultimately bear the costs of these sharp practices.

Way Forward?
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery must welcome oversight. The refinery’s doors must be opened to the NMDPRA inspectors, publish monthly production data, and allow independent experts to verify capacity claims. Transparency is not an insult, it is the currency of credibility.

The government must also resist the urge to overprotect. Import licences are not an admission of failure. It is its insurance policy. If the refinery stumbles, importers can cushion the blow. If it soars, the competition won’t hurt it, they’ll keep it accountable.. If the refinery achieves pricing efficiency, it can make the import licences obsolete without litigation or political machinations.

Nigerians deserve a real debate. Not one of mudslinging, where accusations of cabals or patriotic rhetoric are the order of the day. Instead, a clear-eyed discussion about what type of market we want. Any monopoly dressed in the clothes of nationalism is still a monopoly.
Years ago, during a petrol scarcity in Lagos, I stood in a queue for hours.

When it was finally my turn, the attendant said, “Nigeria runs on hope, not petrol.” He wasn’t wrong. But hope is not a strategy. If the government is serious about energy independence, Nigeria needs more than grand refineries; it needs open, resilient, and competitive systems that can withstand their own growing pains.

The Dangote refinery is a game changer for Nigeria and Africa, but systems only work when everyone knows the rules and can see the scoreboard.

Gafar, an entrepreneur and accountant based in Lagos, is a public affairs commentator