Taming the brewing tension in the Middle East 

Just as the world heaves a sigh of relief over the Iran-Israeli confrontation, a consequence of the Israeli war on Gaza, the ante of the seething Israeli-Palestine crisis was upped by the Israelis following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Tehran, Iranian capital on July 31. The global concern about the fresh threat to peace in the Middle East is justifiable, as it portends a potential loss of more lives as well as deeper regional instability. Haniyeh was in Iran for the swearing-in ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian new president, in Tehran, Iran, hours before he was assassinated through a precision strike by the Israelis. Certainly, the times call for the exercise of real caution and maturity by all stakeholders, particularly the coalition of Islamic countries being consulted by Iran.

It would be recalled that on April 1 this year, Israel attacked the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, killing two Iranian Generals, Mohammed Reza Zahedi, and Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi, among others. This incident prompted a retaliation from the Iranians on April 13 with a barrage of missiles, a mix of armed drones, 110 ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles into Israeli territory. Iran had based its retaliation on Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which focuses on self-defence. Amidst efforts at de-escalation, the Israelis hit an Iranian radar facility in the city of Isfahan without further retaliation from Iran. However, the quid-pro-quo actions would appear choreographed as it led to at least a temporal thaw in the tension that had built up in the region with collaborating actions of the Houthis in the Mediterranean area and the Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon.

However, Haniyeh’s assassination has now thrown a spanner in the works over a possible ceasefire between the Hamas and Israelis. Iran, relying once again on Article 51 of the United Nations, has vowed punishment for Israel. This has created a new emergency in the Middle East with forces mobilisation by Israel and its allies in anticipation of Iranian revenge. The United States is moving into the region with a second carrier strike group and a guided missile submarine. Also, the United Kingdom, Germany and France have appealed for calm. In a joint statement signed by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, they urged Iran to refrain from attacking Israel to avoid worsening tensions and endangering the ceasefire negotiation over Gaza. They said, “We are deeply concerned by the heightened tensions in the region, and united in our commitment to de-escalation and regional stability.”

To be sure, the murdered Hamas leader was a major power broker in the ongoing negotiations with Israel on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held by his organisation.  He joined Hamas and rose through the ranks to become its leader and had survived an earlier assassination attempt by the Israelis in the early 2000s in the hit of the second Intifada. Subsequently, he relocated to Qatar around 2016 from where he conducted the affairs of his organisation. He was considered a moderate compared to his successor, Yahya Sinwar, the hard-line Hamas military chief. The selection of Sinwar as the new leader somewhat affirms the radical perspective on the Palestinian question.

While the global community is yet to get over the concern of a region-wide war, some even say a pathway to a third world war, Israelis have continued their massacres of innocent Palestinians in Gaza. On Saturday, August 10, 2024, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) struck a mosque school inside Al Tabaeen School harbouring displaced Palestinians. This has drawn the condemnation of the UN rights office. Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN relief agency for Palestine refugees, UNRWA, has also condemned the targeting of schools, UN facilities and civilian infrastructure in the Israeli war on Gaza that is now being qualified by Palestinian and sundry observers a holocaust. He described the Saturday killings as “Another day of horror…It’s time for these horrors unfolding under our watch to end… We cannot let the unbearable become a new norm.

The more recurrent, the more we lose our collective humanity”. The missile attack left about 93 Palestinians, including 11 children and six women dead, upping the number of casualties to about 40,000 Palestinians so far killed since the October 7, 2023 incident that left 1200 Israeli dead. What is at stake is the blatant violation of internal humanitarian laws by the combatants. Israeli excuse in the face of its atrocities has been that targeted areas of civilian dwellings were used by Hamas militants, which the UN human rights office has debunked, noting that “while the co-location by armed groups of military objectives with civilians or the use of the presence of civilians with the objective of shielding a military objective from attack constitutes violations of international humanitarian law, it does not negate Israel’s obligation to comply strictly…Israel, as the occupying power, is obliged to provide the population it has forcibly displaced with basic humanitarian needs, including safe shelter.”

Matters appear to be getting out of hand despite the growing call for de-escalation. Indeed, Hamas has announced that it would boycott a final round of proposed negotiations with Israeli on the ceasefire and release of hostages, while Iran, which had held a consultation with Arab states on its quest to strike Israel, is expected to attack Israeli in league with its proxies in the region.  While an Iranian strike on Israel appears inevitable, diplomacy is better than a region-wide war. Iran has started well by consulting with the Arab states. It should take a step further to support the ceasefire negotiation and save more Palestinian lives.