Leadership hurdles for opposition parties’ merger, mega structure

The option of collapsing party structures in opposition parties, to evolve a mega party that rivals their ruling counterpart, is not new. Often challenging for the marriage of convenience are leadership concessions and what becomes of the union after power has been captured, MUYIWA ADEYEMI reports.

The recent disclosure by the political economist, Prof. Pat Utomi, that leading opposition parties in Nigeria are closing ranks to form a formidable party to sack All Progressives Congress (APC) has been generating mixed reactions from Nigerians.

While some expressed optimism that the coming together of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) will strengthen Nigeria’s democracy and put the ruling party on its toes, others dismissed it as the wishful thinking of the LP leader.

To his critics, Utomi was among the people who started the idea of a third force during the 2015 general elections which, they said, will consign both APC and PDP into the dustbin of history, but when it failed they mooted the idea of a Mega Party that did not fly.

Utomi’s critics said those who believed in him and looking forward to the collapse of these three parties into one will be disappointed. Indeed, a critic said Utomi was soliloquising.

Still expressing their pessimism about the proposed merger, they argued that before the 2023 general elections, all entreaties by prominent Nigerians to convince both LP presidential candidate Peter Obi and his NNPP counterpart, Rabiu Kwankwaso, to bury their personal ambitions and work together in the interest of their teeming supporters failed. To them, it will be difficult for the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to forgo his presidential ambition once he is still healthy and agile.

Opposition parties fusing together to form a formidable platform to challenge the ruling party is not a novel idea to Nigeria politics.

Prof. Siyan Oyewso recalled that in the second republic (1979 –1983), there was a merger of political parties, which included the political gladiators of the time.

“They included the ‘beautiful bride’ of Nigerian politics, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe of Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Aminu Kano led People Redemption Party (PRP) and the Great Nigerian Peoples Party (GNPP) led by Ibrahim Waziri.

“These great politicians came together and formed the Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA) against the dominant and ruling party in Nigeria at the time – the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). But they could not reach an agreement on the leadership structure of the alliance.”

However, the political hegemony of the PDP was truncated in 2015 because of the coming together of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP), breakaway faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new-PDP to form APC in February 2013.

Before the formation of APC, the PDP, which pride itself as the largest political party in Africa said it was going to rule Nigeria for 60 years uninterrupted, but coming together of the opposition parties ended its reign in 16 years, and since 2015 when the party lost presidential election, it has been struggling to keep its head afloat.

Indeed, Utomi’s postulation has been the wish of some political analysts, saying that despite the fact that the Electoral Act of 2022 allows for multi-party system to give Nigerians the opportunity to freely express their rights, fusion of many small parties, voluntarily by the stakeholders, into two would allow for serious contest that will make elections less predictable. Nigeria currently has 18 political parties registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), but only five – APC, PDP, LP, APGA and NNPP- have presence in the National Assembly.

However, despite many political parties in the United Kingdom, only the Conservative Party and Labour Party have been forming government since the 1920s while Democratic Party and the Republican Party have been the two largest parties in the United States since 1850. Both parties are big and strong enough to favourably compete in their countries and have been providing alternatives for the electorates.

Emphasising on the need for the formation of the new party, Prof. Utomi said: “What we need are people who sacrificially give up themselves to build a great country with their possible reward being immortality. When I talked to several of the presidential candidates in the last run about this track we are travelling; yes, I’ve had conversations with Atiku Abubakar, I’ve had conversations with Rabiu Kwankwaso, I have had conversations with Peter Gregory Obi and the people like Ralph Okey Nwosu of ADC are some of those that would probably constitute some of the base.

“And I’ve said to them, it’s not about you. It’s about Nigeria. It’s about the ordinary person in this state. It’s about really truly moving from this business of sharing trickles from oil sales to how we can become one of the most productive economies because our (natural) endowments allow that but our politics has not allowed Nigerian people to produce. Politicians just go there to grab, grab, grab.”

Describing the plan to form another mega party ahead of 2027 election as a distraction that Nigerians should not entertain at the moment, Oyeweso said, it is not right for political actors to disturb Nigerians about elections every time, saying that people should be given a breathing space after the 2023 general elections to concentrate on governance.

Fielding questions from The Guardian, the university teacher said: “I think it is too early in the day to start talking of the 2027 election now. The new government is barely eight months in office facing different challenges from hunger to insecurity. The normal thing for all Nigerians to do now is to join hands with the government in solving some of these problems.

“This is not the time for politics and Nigerians should not be distracted by the alliance of strange bedfellows coming together for the purpose of capturing power. Anyway their coming together is still far from reality, but let’s concentrate on governance for now.”

A public affairs analyst, Usman Kabo, said there is nothing new if Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso, and other politicians in opposition parties agree to work together to re-enact “what ACN, CPC, ANPP and others did to send PDP packing from Aso Rock. Our democracy will be at its best if we can have a small number of big parties instead of multiple mushroom parties that cannot win elections.

“You cannot force it to happen, but it is good if they can evolve. I hope you can still remember that the Babangida administration tried it; the mistake of that administration is that they coerced Nigerians to accept the two parties, NRC and SDP. That’s why both parties could not survive after the annulment of the June 12 election that saw the end of that administration.

“I wish to see them coming together but the truth is, can we say that Atiku is that popular in PDP to convince the party of the merger, or can Obi trust his followers to the extent of thinking that they will follow him to join Atiku? Most of the supporters following Obi are leftists and Atiku has been a capitalist since we know him. Besides, what does Kwankwaso have to offer and who will trust him when it is being speculated that he is on the way to join APC. These are part of the contradictions Prof. Utomi should consider and work on. I have a feeling in me that he is soliloquising, thinking aloud.”

The Head of Department, Politics and International Relations, Lead City University, Ibadan, Prof. Akeem Amodu, said: “It is good for our democracy and it reinforces our political system. We need strong political parties. The idea of many parties without the required spread and strength to win elections is not good for democracy. The development will provide a credible ideological alternative. It should be encouraged.’’

A public affairs analyst, Prof. Olu Ojedokun, said: “The lessons of emergence of APC from the new PDP, ACN, CPC and others taught us that opposition parties could only defeat the ruling party when they come together. The APC was able to defeat the PDP when Buhari, Tinubu and others formed an alliance with other opposition leaders.

However, those that want to come together now are diametrically opposed in terms of political ambitions. In the 2023 polls, they could not achieve that. What has changed now?’’

For Perez Adekunle, it is a good development that most Nigerians will welcome if they can downplay their personal ambition for the merger to work. He said: ‘’There will be a leadership tussle among Kwankwaso, Obi and Atiku Abubakar, because they are typical politicians who will not compromise their personal ambition for anything.”

A chieftain of APC, Liad Tella said: ‘’It is not new. Many parties that contested the last elections could not win any seat, let them come together. It has happened before. It is a good development and good for Nigeria and democracy. Let them come and test their strength. It is not a threat to the APC. Let them come, they will meet us there. The internal contradictions they are bringing will not allow them to succeed.’ ’

But a political scientist from the University of Ibadan (UI) Prof. Dhikrullah Adewale Yagboyaju said: “The proposed coming together of these leading opposition parties as reported in sections of the media, is interesting. It is a welcome development because formidable oppositions constitute part of the essential ingredients of a liberal democracy. It is a reminder, in a way, of the emergence of APC by way of a coalition of forces in 2013.

“However, the coming together of the presidential candidates of these parties may come not completely as a surprise, because these political gladiators were altogether in PDP at different points in time, before the 2023 elections in Nigeria.

“All things being equal, it will also be interesting to see whether the proposed coalition will be able to present strong candidates for different elective positions in 2027. Politics is all about interests and there are bound to be negotiated alliances, and permutations that may affect arrangements and coalitions at different points in time.