Despite the fact that about 23 presidential aspirants contested for the ticket of governing All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2023 general election, there were many winners and losers than those whose names appeared on the ballot at the June 6-8 special convention of the party.

In addition to the 13 aspirants that lost the coveted trophy to former Lagos State governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the other losers include, President Muhammadu Buhari, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Rotimi Amaechi, Governor Dave Umahi, Yahaya Bello and Senator Abdullahi Adamu.

On close examination, many reasons account for why and how the losers lost. And that could explain why some of Tinubu’s declarations before the balloting may be harder to attain than given serious consideration.

The APC national leader, who went ahead to snatch the party’s presidential ticket from the jaws of concerted plots and overt antagonism, had told the electors at the Eagle Square: “Ours shall be a land, where all Nigerians will have an equal chance and no one is excluded, because of his ethnic background, religious creed, place of origin or social status, we are all Nigerians.

“By this statement, I seek your help and support to become our party’s nominee and standard-bearer in the coming February 2023 presidential elections.”

Barely three hours after the candidate’s marketing communication, the electoral process and personnel trashed his propositions. Fellow contestant and incumbent governor of Kogi State, who contested as a youth, Yahaya Bello, faulted the primary. He stressed that the process was heavily compromised, even as his supporters accused another governor at the head of the proceedings of master-minding the tardy straw poll.

It is therefore against this background, that the losers could be examined, with a view to seeing what they did and could not do that led to an outcome that did not favour them

President Buhari
AS Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic, President Buhari signed off his administration not only as a failure, but also went ahead to advertise the fact that he bears full responsibility for whatever shortcomings of the APC federal government.

It is on record that weeks before the APC special convention, Buhari warned party chiefs to ensure that the ticket was not made available to the highest bidder. Earlier, in an interview with a national television, the President owned up that he had a preferred candidate for the party’s Presidential ticket, but that he was not prepared to divulge the name for fear that “they may take him out.”

As the preparations for the party’s straw poll progressed, opinions were divided on who, between the immediate past Minister for Transportation, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, and the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, the President had in mind.

However, when the game got to the crunchy, amid a plethora of aspirants from the Southwest geopolitical zone, particularly given the perceived pre-merger agreement with the zone, it became apparent that Prof. Osinbajo (PYO) was the President’s hooded contestant.

That certainty could be deduced from the fact of PYO’s resolve not to step down for the national leader, who was seen as his (PYO’s) benefactor. PYO’s dilemma could therefore be understood from the perspective that although Tinubu had a hand in his ascension to power, he would not have for the love of his pastoral calling disobey his principal (Buhari).

Consequently, that Buhari could not muster the moral strength or political sagacity to deliver his anointed candidate tells of his poverty of political ideas and leadership skills. As the ballots were sorted and collated, it was evident that the President also lacked an enforcer in the mould of late Mallam Abba Kyari.

Not that alone, Buhari seems to have been overwhelmed by the internal political leadership contradictions in APC. That Tinubu exploited this seeming naivety was not in doubt, especially placed side by side with the attempted removal of Mai Mala Buni as the chairman of Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) at the point of setting up structures for the party’s primaries.

Analysts hold that all that an assertive President could have done was select few influential governors from his Northwest with its high delegate numbers and reach an agreement with them after confiding in them on his choice candidate.

Others believe that if the President was acting with conviction and sincerity of purpose, he would have called Tinubu into a closed door meeting and advised him to support PYO. Thereafter, the President could have reached out to some Yoruba leaders through Segun Osoba and Chief Bisi Akande, and outlined to them reasons why he wanted his deputy to fly the party’s flag.

If the President actually had a choice, whom he believed in and kept his identity because he didn’t want him to be ‘taken out’, Nigerians expected him to go the whole hog and stamp his authority. Tinubu couldn’t have been Buhari’s choice because the Jagaban is well endowed to secure himself. It is clear that Buhari dilly-dallied in the maze of political webs woven around him by to many unprofessional hands in his kitchen cabinet. He caved in to rampaging governors who only have their interests to serve.

Prof. Osinbajo
This cerebral law teacher and pastor did not on his own set to out to contest the Presidency. But the idea of dragging him into President Buhari’s succession plan began shortly before the 2019 poll, when some Presidency insiders confided in him on the need “to prepare your mind for action.”

Those working behind the scenes to enthrone Osinbajo as possible successor relied on his loyalty to the President, Christian background and knowledge on governance issues, especially the rule of law.

But, as the process leading to the party primaries began, the pro-Osinbajo campaigners in the Presidency took President Buhari’s acquiescence for granted without factoring in the role of the APC governors, most of whom were beholden to the former Lagos State governor, Tinubu.

As things turned out, not even the idea of handing over to a Christian southerner nor the age factor was raised to propel Osinbajo’s aspiration, especially given the President’s hint to the governors that he (Buhari) should be supported to produce his successor.

Sources said that nothing buoyed the Vice President’s conviction that the Presidency was serious about backing him than Buhari’s plea to the governors. Yet, at the crucial time when the President was expected to name his preferred choice, he adopted evasive manoeuvres, which infuriated the governors. Further, Senator Adamu’s decision to announce Lawan as the President’s choice compounded PYO’s woes.

It was as if the Vice President was merely used to raise stakes and create the impression of intense contest that opened the way for dollarization of the process.

At the convention ground, it was apparent to the Vice President that he misread the body language of the President and the nuances among the northern governors, some of who wanted to requite Southwest for former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s imposition of late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.

Torn between obedience to his Principal and the moral burden of contesting the APC presidential ticket against his former benefactor, Prof. Osinbajo became a fall guy for the party’s manipulative politics.

While Osinbajo’s refusal to step down for Tinubu riled sections of Yoruba leaders of the party, especially Segun Osoba and Chief Bisi Akande, the President’s body language, which he was relying on failed him.

Rotimi Amaechi
WHEN the former Rivers State governor was turbaned earlier this year as Dan Amana Daura, many people believed that at last President Buhari’s top choice for APC presidential ticket had been unmasked.

Amaechi was alleged to have teamed up with Minister for Works, Babatunde Raji Fashola to bankroll President Buhari’s election in 2015. And, given the quiet sentiment within the party that the President was going to support a Christian Southerner to take over from him, Amaechi was ranked as the khalifa.

That optimism played out during his pre-balloting speech, when he put up some jig that suggested assured victory. But, when the votes were cast, collated and counted, the Lion of Ubima was gasping for breath like a lizard that fell from an Iroko.

Not even the reminder that he helped to dismantle the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was of any use to delegates.

Governor Dave Umahi
AS the chairman of Southeast Governors’ Forum, Ebonyi State governor, David Nweze Umahi, made national headlines when he announced his defection from opposition PDP to APC. The governor, who complained of PDP’s lack of understanding and recognition of Southeast’s loyalty all the years, said he was moving to serve as the sacrificial lamb for the sake of Southeast’s quest for the Presidency in 2023.

Although multiple sources affirmed that the APC leaders intimated Umahi of the party’s resolve to zone the presidential ticket to the South, the governor did not seem to reckon with an existing pact with Southwest during the merger process.

However, stunned by the spirited fight by Southwest and the united front they presented for the actualization of the 2014 promise to succeed Buhari, Umahi made a belated move of trying to align with a northern aspirant.

The governor has however blamed Southeast delegates for turning their backs against Presidential contenders from the zone in search for filthy lucre.  Not relying on insinuations that Southeast Presidential aspirants were covertly working for a possible VP slot, Governor Umahi has gone to retrieve the APC ticket for Ebonyi South Senatorial District to sustain his interest in national politics. What is clear is that for Umahi, head or tail he loses. Leaving the PDP for APC has not done him any good, especially for the Southeast course he claimed to champion.

GYB
GOVERNOR Yahaya Bello contested the APC Presidential ticket as if his entire political life depended on clinching on it. No doubt, he was out to make a statement for youth inclusion.

However, before Senator Lawan was introduced into the fray, the Kogi State governor hoped to harvest the northern delegates’ votes to fly the party’s flag. How he expected to achieve that feat even after Senator Abdullahi Adamu from the same North Central geopolitical zone emerged as chairman of the party remained a marvel to analysts.

Bello had a vigorous and impressive media campaign. On the day of the primary, he was the first to move across various states’ stands waving with the confidence of a giant killer.

When he mounted the podium to make his final appeal to the delegates, Bello spoke Hausa, reminding the audience that time had come to empower Nigerian youths who have been sold as leaders of tomorrow.

However, after the primary was lost and won, Bello picked holes in the primary election, alleging that it was compromised.

Bello was said to have protested that a northwest governor compromised the process to produce a predetermined outcome, adding, “In fact, some of us had to force our way to also bring in five volunteers while he alone brought 50 people.

“He alone took custody of the ballot papers and signed them without anybody being aware. He just produced the ballot papers and he had told us earlier that we shall be involved in the stamping (customized) of the papers for additional security, but he did it alone.

“There are also many instances of delegates taking snapshots of their ballot papers after voting. When confronted about this, as it is against our rules, the governor said we should leave the matter, claiming we can’t enforce the rule.”

Though the winner has paid a reconciliation visit to GYB and he has promised to work for the party, the governor has shown uncommon courage by voicing out his frustration.

National chair, Adamu
SENATOR Abdullahi Adamu transited from the chairman of APC Reconciliation Committee to that of national chairman of the party. Leaders of the party praised his efforts at reuniting the party and therefore decided to adopt as the consensus choice for the position of national chairman.

But, days to the party’s special convention to elect a presidential candidate, the former Nasarawa State governor tried to foul the process by unilaterally announcing the Senate President as the consensus choice for the party’s presidential ticket. The declaration caused much fuss within the party, especially among the governors, who accused the chairman of doing a hatchet job for a tiny clique.

Part of the reason for the delayed take off of the convention was blamed on the confusion instigated by that announcement, which ran counter to the position of the state governors that raised a shortlist of five top aspirants for Presidential consideration.

The chairman, being a former governor failed to take into account the weight governors could bring to bear as a collective. He also failed to carry along the President in his solo voyage.

Apart from losing out, he has also sown the seed that will germinate to haunt him. He should remember how his predecessors fared in that office.

Those other Southwest aspirants who stepped down did so to save face. Their individual and collective scorecard could not have overturned Tinubu’s victory. They did not only waste hard earned resources, which their states desperately need, they also wasted their future presidential ambitions. What they said on the day of the Convention could have been said way back if they meant it. They are not better than those who stayed put and lost the real poll.

As the party’s Presidential candidate has emerged in the person of Aiwaju Bola Tinubu, it is obvious that the governing party will have another round of reconciliation to do before next year’s general election. APC has work to do in the Southeast.