While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is torn between strengthening his hold on the northern voters and recruiting new allies, political leaders in the zone are jostling for who becomes the region’s leader following the demise of former President Muhammadu Buhari, thus making voter loyalty in the zone very challenging, LEO SOBECHI reports.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is renowned for head-hunting capable and impactful leaders. That was one of the unique selling propositions that helped market the former Lagos State governor during the lead up to the 2023 general election. And now that conversations around the 2027 elections glide from words into action points, the President has been doing both back channel and person to person interactions to get strong political figures, especially from the northern part of the country to his side.

President Tinubu knows that his greatest strength lies in the North. Similarly, as a political strategist, the former Lagos State strong man acknowledges the fact that two northern politicians hold the ace to either his re-election or opposition. These two politicians happen to be Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai.

Both juggernauts were formerly among the strong stakeholders of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) until the build up to and after the 2023 general election. While Kwankwaso found his way out of the party and contested the presidential poll unsuccessfully on the platform of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), El-Rufai waited two years before embarking on a fresh political odyssey in readiness for the 2027 elections.

Further, as Kwankwaso became the beautiful bride in the approaching general election, the former Kaduna State governor has declared his preference for another presidential candidate outside the incumbent President Tinubu. How do these divergent interests play out amidst President Tinubu’s desire to enlist a strong northern navigator in his search for re-election in 2027, especially against the background of the demise of the immediate past President Buhari?

El Rufai, who also supported Tinubu for the APC ticket and electoral triumph in 2023, fell out of favour as the new APC Federal Government under Tinubu was in the making. Although the strife between the former Kaduna State governor and the President was traced to some dislocation through misconceptions around his ministerial nomination by the President, those close to El-Rufai claim that he decided against accepting an appointment from Tinubu so as to rest and reset his political calculations.

But after the Accidental Civil Servant left the APC and decided to lead opposition against Tinubu’s re-election, claiming that another southerner should complete the remaining four years of the Presidency in the zone, some opposition elements claimed that El-Rufai was actually aiming for a 2031 presidential run.

To many analysts, El-Rufai, just like the current Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, believes that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s right to the leadership of the North or indeed Nigeria has become a token of history. And in the thinking of these emergent leaders, the search for a new northern political mascot is already on.

That thinking gained traction immediately after former President Muhammadu Buhari travelled to the great beyond. And within the fold of the opposition coalition, El-Rufai and Atiku have been enmeshed in mind games in the belief that 2027 holds the key to who would step into Buhari’s shoes as the leader of not only the Muslim ummah, but also the Talakawas.

While the two opposition figures are at it, President Tinubu sustained his interest in having the former NNPP presidential contender in his corner during the 2027 poll. However, while talks were approaching a seal, Kwankwaso dropped a slammer, alleging that under Tinubu, the nation’s resources are being shipped to the South at the expense of the North.

Members of the opposition coalition on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) platform rejoiced that the expected marriage of the Kano strongman and his Lagos State counterpart had hit a dead end. The impression was created that Kwankwaso was readying himself for another go at the Presidency rather than enabling Tinubu’s retention of the Presidency in 2027.

But Kwankwaso’s political ground troops known as the Kwankwasiyya believe that while not vitiating talks about a possible accord with the President for the 2027 poll, their principal was merely being true to his position as the khalifa of northern Nigeria.

Of course, even President Tinubu acknowledges the engineer-turned former Kano State governor as the most ideal go-to person in the North. Kwankwaso parades an impressive leadership clout, especially given his political achievements as a member of the House of Representatives (Deputy Speaker of the House), two-term governor, Minister of Defence, Senator, Ambassador and Chairman, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).

As an acclaimed political head-hunter, President Tinubu must have seen that as a feat that no other politician in the North could rival. And as his voice regularly sounds in stalwart defence of the interest of the region, Kwankwaso’s loyalty to the northern masses dwarfs political correctness.

For instance, when the melee involving some northerners broke out in Shagamu, Ogun State as well as the Lagos episode, the leader of the Kwankwasiyya was heard loud and clear. It was the same also during the fracas in Port Harcourt, and the Edo incident, when some northern travellers were killed.

Apart from rendering his strong condemnation, the former NNPP standard bearer also visited the troubled areas. Perhaps, it could be in keeping with this notable tradition of speaking and looking out for the northern interest that Kwankwaso’s recent outburst against President Tinubu’s administration happened.

As a political maestro, Kwankwaso must have reckoned that the constitution review public hearing for the North West zone was very auspicious to lend his voice. The acclaim his position received showed that Kwankwaso remains a potent northern voice that cannot be silenced, even with more than a slice of the national cake.

It was in repudiation of the double-speak from politicians that British playwright, George Orwell, declared that ‘in a time of deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” It is a well known fact that political correctness always emasculates the truth.

Kwankwaso’s reaction could be likened to President Tinubu’s agitation for fiscal federalism in 2005, when he was serving out his second term as Lagos State chief executive and emerging leading voice of the Yoruba nation. Consequently, Kwankwaso’s recent criticism of the Tinubu administration for what he described as the glaring neglect of the northern region could be seen as coming more from a bold act of patriotism rather than evidence of bitterness or opposition.

Like Tinubu, Kwankwaso thundered as a man who bears the burden of a wounded people, spoke truth to power by warning of a deepening imbalance in developmental attention, “where the North, with its vast population, is left scavenging for federal presence while billion-naira projects blossom across the South.”

Similarly, like Tinubu, the former Kano State governor’s consistency sets him apart, because while others remain loyal to power, even when bereft of justice, Kwankwaso craves loyalty to the truth that most often isolates the subscriber.

A former commissioner in Kano State, who is now an employee of the Presidency, noted that “it is rare in today’s Nigeria to find a politician who speaks not for contracts, but for consequences.”

Speaking in confidence to The Guardian about the likely implications of Kwankwaso’s outburst and the rapprochement with President Tinubu, especially after Tinubu sacrificed his other major ally, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, to seal a deal, the source noted: “Kwankwaso speaks knowing that every unspoken truth today may explode tomorrow. He understands that injustice buried in silence is merely a volcano waiting for its season. He speaks not because it is safe, but because it is necessary.

“What the APC needs now is not just more numbers, but more conscience. The party, at this sensitive juncture in our democratic journey, should see the wisdom in embracing a man like Kwankwaso, not for optics, but for what he represents – a stubborn insistence on fairness, a rare breed of political courage.

“He remains a deep well of influence among the people, because his grassroots appeal is unmanufactured. It was earned through years of service, sacrifice, and speaking when others chose silence.”

Expressing the confidence that as a democrat, President Tinubu seems unfazed with the summations of Kwankwaso, the former commissioner noted that in Kano, “Kwankwso’s legacy still breathes, through classrooms he built, scholarships he gave, and hope he ignited.”

“He showed that governance can be an instrument of transformation, not just an avenue for accumulation. His work speaks in the accents of progress, not propaganda. And that is why his voice still carries weight, even when it grates against power.

“In Kwankwaso, we see the kind of leader northern Nigeria has been yearning for. One who will not exchange the blood of his people for political endorsement and that understands that justice denied to one region is injustice to the nation,” he surmised.

While insisting that Tinubu has his eyes focussed on the ball and determined to repeat his 2023 feat, the politician maintained that no one else from the region has shown such tenacity as demonstrated in his public life.

As a possible successor to Buhari, Tinubu’s quest to have Kwankwaso on his side could be out of the realisation that the strong man of Kano politics parades an unmatched level of consistency in calling out injustice.

Always demonstrating the ability to bridge the gap between regional loyalty and national interest with finesse and fire, Kwankwaso does not speak merely for Kano, but also for a region gasping for fairness.

Though his supporters believe that he speaks for “a Nigeria that cannot survive on selective development” his tone suggests a tendency to segregate, even as the members of Kwankwasiyya grouping insist that their principal does not seek to divide. They maintain that Kwankwaso will not let unity be used as a guise to silence legitimate grievances.

The man from Madobi holds the ace and as an ideologue, President Tinubu seems to acknowledge the fact that his former ally was not driven by hate, but by an urgent love for a region he sees slipping further into neglect and irrelevance.

But nuances remain that Kwankwaso knows that the North is in search of a leader and that occupying that position would grant him the adventitious advantage he needs to supply the goods that President Tinubu wants to be delivered in 2027.

Most often, as a politically aware region, the North remembers whoever that spoke for them and those who kept silent, siding those that stood tall and side-lining those that bowed too easily. Just as his manifesto reminds of the late Muammar al-Ghaddafi of Libya, Kwankwaso wants to be seen as a politician whose politics is powered by principle rather than puppetry.

Fence Mending

Just as there cannot be a general without a troop, the recent visit by the former Chairman of House Committee on Appropriation, Abdulmumin Jibrin, to President Tinubu at the Presidential Villa, came as a strong message to the opposition that their gloating over Kwankwaso’s perceived tiff with the Presidency was a chimera.

Although the former member of the Eighth House of Representatives, where he had a rough time over his allegations of budget padding, told journalists that his visit to President Tinubu was not related to plans for the rumoured return to APC, insiders said the former two-term lawmaker came to clarify what transpired in Kano.

Recall that although Jibrin served briefly as the Director General of the Contact and Mobilisation for President Tinubu in the lead up to the 2023 poll, he moved out of APC to join his benefactor, Kwankwaso, on the NNPP voyage, after Governor Ganduje raised the red flag against the Kwankwasiya Movement.

Against that background, Jibrin, who enjoys the confidence of both President Tinubu and Kwankwaso, was the perfect go-between to smoothen the icy development. “I do not think it is time for that conversation (defection to APC), but “everything is open, a possibility,” the mercurial former lawmaker stated.

According to Jibrin, “the most important thing is the stability of the country and its unity; I believe that when we get to the bridge, we’ll cross it. The President is a first class politician and the NNPP national leader is also a thoroughbred politician. Both of them are committed to the peace, unity and prosperity of Nigeria.”

Going by Jibrin’s measured tone, it is possible that the two leaders are united in their quest to use the 2027 elections to cement their diametrically opposed positions, but mutually beneficial relationship.