Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has yet to formally declare campaigns open for the 2027 elections, Nigeria’s political space is already buzzing. Politicians are on the move, alliances are shifting, and familiar faces are reappearing in churches, mosques, and markets — all in the name of staying relevant.

The recent appointment of Professor Joash Amupitan as INEC chairman, replacing Professor Mahmood Yakubu after an unprecedented ten-year tenure, has further heightened political tension. But the truth is, campaigns never really ended after the 2023 elections.

Many of the so-called losers never left the field. They continue to court public sympathy, kiss babies for the cameras, fund church projects, and sink boreholes around mosques — symbolic acts aimed at reminding voters that they still exist. Politics, after all, is about visibility. As the saying goes, ‘out of sight is out of mind’.

Really, since the last general elections, much has happened. The appointment of a new INEC boss has energised the system, but even more dramatic is the wave of defections sweeping through the political class. Unlike in 2015, when four opposition parties merged to form the APC that toppled the PDP, today’s movement is largely one-way — toward the ruling party, although there has been a couple of movements to Musa kwakwanso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party NNPC which dominates politics in North West Nigeria.

There’s an old saying in politics, ‘no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests’. That truth is playing out in Nigeria’s political theatre as the 2027 polls approach. Why do politicians switch sides so easily? The answer is simple: survival. And that’s where the comparison with prostitution becomes apt. Both are driven by the same instinct — staying alive and relevant, whatever the cost.

Prostitution, one of the oldest professions in the world, predates democracy itself. The Greek philosopher, Aristotle, in his seminal work “Politics”, described man as a political animal — a being that thrives in community and seeks collective good. But he didn’t address how politics, in practice, often mirrors the world’s oldest trade.

Like prostitutes, politicians sell themselves — not in body, but in loyalty, rhetoric, and allegiance. They adjust to the market of power, shifting positions when survival demands it. And just like prostitution, politics is often judged harshly by society though it performs a necessary function.

That is despite the fact that Aristotle saw politics as the highest human calling, a noble pursuit of the common good. But in our reality, it often becomes an art of self-preservation. Both politicians and prostitutes navigate the same moral gray zone — doing what they must to survive in systems that reward expediency over virtue.

In the end, politics remains what the Greeks called politiká — the “affairs of the city.” And in those affairs, as Nigeria’s politicians are once again showing, survival often trumps ideals.

When democracy first took root around 500 BCE in Athens, Greece, it introduced three revolutionary ideas — citizen participation, free debate, and the election of leaders. Aristotle later called man a “political animal” because of our ability to engage in these civic acts. That Athenian model became the bedrock of modern democracy as we know it today.

Yet, over two millennia later, politics has evolved into something Aristotle might not recognise — a game of survival. And in that sense, it bears a striking resemblance to prostitution, one of the world’s oldest professions. Both are driven by necessity, both involve negotiation for advantage, and both are judged harshly despite their permanence in human society.

Like prostitution, politics is often described as a “dirty game.” Both are about staying relevant in systems that thrive on exchange — of loyalty, of favours, or of influence. The common denominator is survival.

But prostitution of the hue of the governors that have moved enmasse with the PDP structures in their respective states into the ruling APC  may be justified by the philosophy behind the dictum: no man tarries in a burning house or sinking ship which the one time ruling party (from 1999 to 2015) the PDP has degenerated into.

While Aristotle viewed politics as the pursuit of the common good, today’s reality is more complex. Professional politicians often prioritise self-preservation, wealth, and power over the public interest. That truth is playing out vividly in Nigeria’s political arena ahead of the 2027 elections.

The wave of defections from the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) underscores this instinct for survival. Many analysts once blamed fear of the EFCC for these defections, but the real reason is simpler — it’s a “flight to safety.” The APC under President Bola Tinubu has become like Ijebu garri — swelling rapidly as more politicians pour in.

As 2027 election circle approaches, the ruling party has been welcoming governors and their supporters from across the country, thanks to its growing political muscle. Remarkably, the APC, originally formed as a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) by regional and opposition blocs to unseat the PDP in 2015, has defied all predictions of collapse. Instead, it has expanded its footprint and consolidated power nationwide.

The current disintegration of the PDP, with some of its founding members defecting, reveals the strategic mastery of political horse trading by President Tinubu. It’s a classic case of “if you can’t beat them, join them.” And Tinubu seems not have pulled out his last arrow from its quivers.

In a recent piece l penned in my column titled, “2027 Election: While ADC Is Playing Checkers, APC Is Playing Chess,” I argued that Tinubu stands head and shoulders above his rivals in political strategy. The unfolding reality proves the point. Governors from Enugu and Bayelsa states have reportedly joined their counterparts from Delta and Akwa Ibom states on the APC train, which seems to be making steady stops across the South-East and South-South.

Only Abia and Anambra remain outside the APC orbit, under Labour Party (LP) and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Yet even their governors, Alex Otti and Chukwuma Soludo, openly admire Tinubu and have pledged support for his presidency. Tinubu may reap the votes from those states as neither LP nor APGA seems likely to field a presidential candidate in 2027.

Given this trend, if I were in the opposition planning to run against Tinubu, I would think twice. That’s not cowardice — it’s pragmatism. Love him or loathe him, President Tinubu has proven himself a master strategist — arguably the most formidable political figure of his generation. His record speaks for itself.

In 2003, when then-President Olusegun Obasanjo’s PDP swept away all Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors in the South-West except Lagos, Tinubu was the lone survivor. Rather than retreat, he regrouped, built alliances, tried again by fielding current National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu an accomplished banker Fola Adeola as presidential candidates of ACN in 2011 and failed to win the victory. Again he plotted a return and by 2015, those strategies culminated in the APC’s historic victory over the PDP.

Those now warning about a “one-party state” forget that between 2003 and 2007, under Obasanjo, the PDP controlled nearly every state in Nigeria. Tinubu, then in opposition, didn’t whine — he innovated. He turned his political laboratory into a breeding ground for strategy, later rallying forces that toppled the PDP.

The lesson is simple: opposition parties must reinvent themselves. Instead of trading insults or lamenting “state capture,” they must craft new strategies, not recycle old ones Tinubu has already mastered that game and made it obsolete.

History shows that Tinubu plays the long game. As leader of the defunct ACN in 2011, as stated earlier, he fielded Nuhu Ribadu and Fola Adeola against then-President Goodluck Jonathan. That attempt failed, but he didn’t stop. Two years later, he masterminded the APC merger that finally defeated the PDP in 2015 — a feat once thought impossible.

Today, the same resilience and political engineering define his presidency. Tinubu has shown an uncanny ability to absorb rivals, expand influence, and outmaneuver opponents.

Little wonder then that he continues to attract governors and political blocs like a magnet. As things stand, he has already “married” Delta and Akwa Ibom politically — and seems poised to add more “brides”. Taraba governor is warming up.

Politics, like prostitution, will always be about survival. And in Nigeria’s ever-fluid political marketplace, Tinubu remains the master of the game. To those quick to accuse me of currying Tinubu’s favour, I’ll remind them that I predicted his emergence as Nigeria’s president as far back as 2021—two years before the 2023 elections and before he was even nominated as the APC’s flagbearer.

That projection, based on trend analysis and comparative study, was published in this column TheCable.ng and later reproduced in my 2022 book Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide. In that piece, I wrote: “The 2023 presidential race will be a two-horse contest between the APC’s Bola Tinubu and the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar.”

That foresight was not a prophecy but pattern recognition. Both men had prepared, networked, and built enduring structures—qualities that separate political visionaries from mere contenders.

While many Nigerian politicians treat parties like transit lounges, jumping from one platform to another, Tinubu has been the exception. Since 1999, he has stayed within the same ideological lineage—from the AD to AC, ACN, and finally APC.

That kind of consistency is rare in a system where defections also known as political prostitution are often the price of ambition. After serving as Lagos State governor from 1999 to 2007, Tinubu built a model of governance that remains a reference point today. His cabinet was a blend of some of the best minds across Nigeria—a diversity that became the foundation of Lagos’s transformation.

In an environment where opportunism dominates, Tinubu’s loyalty to his political vision stands out. He never abandoned his base for expediency, and that resilience ultimately paved the road to Aso Rock.

In my earlier writings in my column, I likened politics to an age-old profession—necessary, messy, and driven by survival instincts. Yet, while others “prostituted” between platforms, Tinubu remained steadfast. That single-mindedness—rooted in conviction rather than convenience—has been his greatest asset.

In Aristotelian terms, Tinubu embodies the true “political animal”—driven by purpose, guided by intellect, and skilled in alliance-building. His evolution from opposition leader to president is not luck; it’s the result of deliberate, disciplined strategy.

Today, the president faces enormous challenges—from inflation to insecurity—but he has also begun stabilising key policy directions. In his October 1 Independence speech, he noted that Nigeria has turned the corner which is in allignment with my piece earlier in February where he unequivocally stated that “ the ice is beginning to thaw,” on Nigerian economy which was hitheto frozen. It is a sentiment echoed by Bayo Ogunlesi, Nigerian-American billionaire and co-CEO of BlackRock, who recently announced plans for strategic investments in Nigeria after affirming that Tinubu’s reforms have made Nigeria a veritable investment destination.

If the government sustains its reforms, especially the new tax regime due in January, and the autonomy for local government areas, enabling funds to go straight to not just the 36 state capitals but  to the 774  LGAs , Nigeria may finally be steering toward economic recovery.

Tinubu’s long political odyssey offers lessons for both his allies and critics. It is a story of foresight, loyalty, and resilience—a reminder that in politics, as in life, consistency often outlasts opportunism.
Onyibe is an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate. He wrote from Lagos.