If Nigeria can achieve the 20 per cent High Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF) inclusion target in flour production, the market potential could scale up to US$1.18b by 2030, unlocking value across the cassava supply chain and positioning HQCF as a major driver of industrial growth.
According to an insight from the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA), an initiative by the Lagos Business School, Pan-Atlantic University, it indicates that current industry estimates suggest that actual HQCF inclusion in composite flour today is around one per cent, equivalent to a market value of up to US$35m, and if the 20 per cent substitution target is achieved it could be a major turnaround for the industry.
The move received a major boost last month as the Cassava Flour (Mandatory Inclusion in Flour Production) Bill, 2022 reached the public hearing stage at the Upper Legislative House, renewing national focus on cassava and signaling political will to drive local agricultural value addition.
In parallel, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (FMAFS), also revived its push for a 20 per cent HQCF inclusion target supported by master bakers training and updated policy guidance.
HQCF is primarily consumed by small-and medium-scale producers, especially in the bread and baked goods segment, which accounts for over 50 per cent of current usage. Artisanal bakers remain the dominant consumer group, purchasing HQCF directly through open market channels and typically using five to 30 per cent substitution blends to cut costs and align with policy incentives.
Despite the fragmented nature of this market, the bread segment presents the largest immediate opportunity, with a potential market of 351K tons and US$236m in revenue.
The NCIA further reveals that despite strong policy signals and growing interest, HQCF remains a largely nascent market due to persistent challenges around cost, quality, and supply reliability. Industrial uptake has been limited not for lack of demand, but due to inconsistent and uncompetitive supply.
Buyers frequently cite three critical deterrents: inconsistent product quality, price volatility, and fragmented supply chains. Many local processors struggle to meet industrial standards for granulation, moisture content, and shelf life—factors essential for large-scale baking or blending. These issues stem from limited investment in quality control, fragmented production systems, and a lack of standardized processing infrastructure.
Pricing is another structural barrier. HQCF has recently been around nine per cent more expensive than wheat flour, largely due to inefficient feedstock sourcing, underdeveloped logistics, and weak coordination across actors. Without scale or cost-efficiency, processors face difficulties offering a competitive product, undermining both buyer confidence and policy ambitions.
Unlocking this market, according to NCIA will require more than regulation. It will demand targeted innovation across the value chain, from processing technologies to input supply models.
“Investments in R&D are essential to localise recipes and adapt HQCF to Nigeria’s consumer and industrial taste profiles. The cassava chips market presents a scalable entry point: it offers improved shelf life, enables pre-processing close to farms, and simplifies logistics, reducing some of the biggest friction points in the current system.”
NCIA affirms that encouraging signs are emerging. It noted that processors like Sofari are investing in scalable chip-based approaches to improve handling, drying, and product consistency.
It added that research institutions such as IITA are advancing cassava varieties better suited for flour production. But realising full market potential will require more coordination, greater scale, and sustained investment to translate innovation into impact.
Though the opportunity is clear, but without structural shifts on the supply side, even the strongest policy push won’t be enough to turn HQCF into Nigeria’s next industrial success story.
