The pursuit of religious balance in the Lagos State governorship seat, rather than zoning, would be beneficial as the Lagos APC plans to ensure cohesion in the lead-up to the 2027 state governorship election, in light of the rising number of aspirants, LEO SOBECHI reports.

It is obvious that the attempts by some political jobbers to conscript President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s son, Seyi, into the Lagos State gubernatorial race have gone the way they began.

But, at the last count, the Deputy Lagos State Governor, Obafemi Hamzat; Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa; Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; Muri Okunola; Tokunbo Abiru; and Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor), are united in one dream: to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu in 2027.

Apart from their individual pedigrees and political clout, particularly direct access to the current President and former Lagos State governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, virtually all the governorship aspirants believe that the incumbent, Sanwo-Olu, would not be the final authority to decide who succeeds him in office in 2027.

When the echoes of the 2023 presidential election reverberated in the state, with some insiders alleging that the governor had funnelled money through third parties to the candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), some of those individuals helped in certain ways to nurture the claims.

However, using back channels and mutual acquaintances, Sanwo-Olu was able to stanch the growing impressions of an icy relationship between him and his godfather cum benefactor, President Tinubu. But having doused that sentiment, insiders revealed that the issue of perceived inclination towards disloyalty on the part of the governor continually resurfaces in political discussions within the APC.

The implication of that cloud of doubt, according to a Presidency insider, is that the resident of Lagos House, Marina, would not have an active role in the three crucial matters in the lead-up to the 2027 general election. He named the three crucial assignments, which include talks about who will become the APC standard bearer for the 2027 gubernatorial poll in Lagos State, the flagbearers of the party for the three Senatorial Districts in the state, as well as the anchor for President Tinubu’s re-election campaign in the same election year.

From the look of things, it would be safe to say that any talks about Governor Sanwo-Olu serving out his two terms and advancing to the Senate would not happen. Checks revealed that the issue has been resolved.

The Presidential source confided in the reporter that during President Tinubu’s 10-day stay in Lagos for the Independence celebrations, political matters took centre stage. Of particular interest, he stated, were how to avert a repeat of the 2023 experience, when the President struggled with low voter turnout, and how best to ensure that the rampaging opposition does not displace the APC in Lagos State.

He said that the momentum gathered by the Lagos4Lagos Movement showed that the party has to do serious homework, stressing that 2027 would definitely not be a time to experiment with a fresh face. It was gathered that in the light of this reality, the President hinted at the possibility of bringing back Akinwunmi Ambode for a second term.

Although it is generally believed that Ambode recorded tremendous achievements during his tenure as Lagos State governor from 2015 to 2019, the potential impact of religious sensitivity in the state on his possible comeback bid after Sanwo-Olu’s eight years would be a serious consideration.

Recall that while Ambode, a Christian, succeeded Babatunde Raji Fashola in 2015, when it became obvious that he was not enjoying the support of Lagos APC stakeholders for a second term, the question of allowing another Christian, in the person of Sanwo-Olu, to replace him rattled the party.

Hence, as Sanwo-Olu is expected to round off his second term in 2027, it will be interesting to see how the Lagos APC and the powerful Governor’s Advisory Committee (GAC) respond to the moot idea of an Ambode encore. But it seems the President has done his calculations before hinting at fielding another Christian for the race to Lagos House, Marina.

“It is not for nothing that we call him a master strategist,” the APC chieftain stated. “When that point was raised, I understand that the President pointed to the photographs on the wall. He said if his eight years and Fashola’s eight years are put together, that will show a straight 16 years and noted that an additional four years for Ambode would bring about religious parity.”

However, while Ambode’s comeback hint makes the rounds in certain quarters, some APC chieftains in the state are murmuring about the need for spread, especially with stakeholders in Lagos West Senatorial District angling for a go at the governorship.

Lagos West, comprising the populous Amuwo-Odofin, Agege, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Alimosho, Badagry, Ifako-Ijaiye, Ikeja, Mushin, Oshodi-Isolo and Ojo, is yet to produce the governor of Lagos State in the current democratic dispensation.

The zone had the privilege of producing the Deputy Governor, Dr Idiat Oluranti Adebule, for the 2015-2019 term under Governor Ambode. Intriguingly, Dr Adebule is currently representing the Senatorial District in the Red Chamber of the National Assembly. While it is not yet a strong indication of agitation for a female governor, there is nothing in the Lagos polity to suggest that the Senator is being prepared as a possible gubernatorial contender.

Checks reveal that Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, who has been around in the Lagos APC circles, started hinting at a possible governorship contest on behalf of the Lagos West District before his failed orchestrated dethronement as Speaker.

Apart from Obasa, Jandor, who is also the founder of the Lagos4Lagos Movement, came out shortly after returning to the APC and declared his intention to join the race for the 2027 governorship in the state.

At any event, the talks about Ambode’s return must have put a slammer on the dreams of such high-profile aspirants as Gbajabiamila, Muri Okunola, who is President Tinubu’s Principal Secretary; strong banker Tokunbo Abiru, as well as the Deputy Governor, Hamzat.

Although the attempt to draft Ambode as a strong contender against the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ‘s tentative standard bearer, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, remains a possibility, managing the clash of ambitions would be a major test for the APC in the buildup to the 2027 showdown.

Speaking to The Guardian last week, the Lagos APC spokesman, Oladejo Seye, downplayed the exclusion of Governor Sanwo-Olu in the search for his successor or whether the matter should be left for the governor to nominate his preferred candidate for the 2027 governorship.

He stated: “It remains the call of the party to put in place the process to nominate our governorship candidate for the next elections as clearly spelt out in our constitution. The party has a duty to provide a level playing field for all aspirants and ensure internal democracy.”

While noting that it has never been the tradition in Lagos APC for an incumbent governor to nominate his successor, Oladejo dismissed speculations that the pattern will change in the forthcoming elections.

In response to fears that the large number of governorship aspirants could create problems for the Lagos APC, the party’s Publicity Secretary recalled that a large number of aspirants have consistently sought the governorship in the state.

“We have always had a large number of governorship aspirants and have always successfully managed the situation before, during and after the primaries because of our enduring mechanism to manage our party’s affairs.

“A large number of aspirants implies implicit confidence in the party and its leadership and a good chance to win the election if they pick the ticket. This is incomparable to the opposition parties that struggle to make their members show interest in their nomination process,” he remarked.

And, as to how the state chapter of the party would react to President Tinubu’s possible involvement in selecting Sanwo-Olu’s successor, the spokesman said it is most unlikely.

“Mr President is a thorough democrat who will at best play the role of a father and a leader. I vividly recall his admonition during the last Local Government election that a level playing field should be created for all aspirants. We do not foresee his involvement in the emergence of a candidate, but it won’t be strange in politics if some aspirants start dropping his name. I’m sure he has his plate full already as the President.”

On the quiet supremacy scheming for roles between the GAC and the party’s State Working Committee, the Publicity Secretary explained that the roles are clearly well defined. His words: “The SWC is the creation of the constitution of the party to run its day-to-day operations, which include but are not limited to routine administrative functions and electoral activities.

“The party also continues to act as a check on our elected and appointed officials to ensure compliance with the party’s manifesto and the fulfilment of the social contract with the citizens.

“On the other hand, the Governance Advisory Committee (GAC) consists of statesmen and women who avail the party of their experience in party administration and governance to ensure stability and appraise government policies from time to time. With the foregoing explanations about their different but complementary roles, the question of who has the bigger stake in Lagos State government does not arise.”

Recently, President Tinubu tagged the Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, Senator Hope Uzodimma, to lead the mobilisation of members and supporters for the 2027 general election.

Some party insiders disclosed that the appointment of the Imo State governor as Director-General of the APC Outreach, Engagement, and Mobilisation means that governors at the zonal levels will marshal forces for President Tinubu’s re-election in 14 months’ time.

The implication of this strategic structure is that Sanwo-Olu would have to closely follow Dapo Abiodun in the prosecution of the party’s plans and activities in the South-West. Although the Lagos State governor has not been the best of friends with his Ogun State counterpart, both men had at some time in the past received the sour side of the President.

However, unveiling the Renewed Hope Ambassador, President Tinubu said Uzodimma would lead his colleagues in the PGF to ensure harmony, inclusiveness and strategic coordination across all levels of the party.

In a statement, the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, said Uzodimma will work in concert with APC leadership and governors to “evangelise the Tinubu administration’s programme.”

“President Tinubu expects Governor Uzodimma and his colleagues to promote and disseminate the party’s achievements and milestones from 2023, thereby reinforcing the message of Renewed Hope nationwide,” Onanuga explained.